This is a great public service by ONSP Contributor Dr. Whitney Ross Manzo in collaboration with Dr. Rebecca Kreitzer of UNC-Chapel Hill. We hope citizens, both in North Carolina and across the nation, will take a moment to learn more about their voting opportunities and the 'rules of the game' when it comes to casting a ballot.
The website is: https://learnaboutvotingnc.com/
By Michael Bitzer
Continuing our weekly update of absentee by mail ballots coming into North Carolina for the November 8th General Election, here is the October 5, 2022 data for both requests and returned & accepted ABM ballots.
Of the 99 (out of 100) counties reporting requests for an absentee by mail ballot, 134,148 North Carolina voters have submitted an ABM ballot. The party registration continues a distinct Democratic advantage, followed by a slightly growing percentage from Unaffiliated registered voters, with registered Republicans at 14 percent.
By Christopher Cooper
Election day in North Carolina is a bit of a misnomer. It's really more of an election deadline (and, like most deadlines, there are a few exceptions). For example, in 2020 the plurality of NC votes were not cast on election day, but rather through in person early voting (what we call Absentee One-Stop). The next most votes were cast by mail. And the smallest number were cast on election day.
So, what patterns are we seeing this thus far in North Carolina? As Michael Bitzer explained last week, we plan to give a relatively brief rundown on the mail and early vote in NC mid week through the end of early voting period.
By Michael Bitzer
North Carolina can claim another first, and that is the first state in the nation with ballots sent out and being returned and accepted for votes for this November 8th's general election.
As my colleagues Chris Cooper and Gerry Cohen (among others) are prone to do, we will cover the returns of absentee by mail (and beginning on Thursday, October 20th, the submissions of absentee onestop, or early in-person ballots) and looking at the trends and patterns emerging so far in the run-up to November 8.
Chris and I plan to post a weekly update here at the blog, usually on Wednesdays, but we'll also have analysis on our respective Twitter feeds, if you need your "data hit" on a daily basis rather than just weekly.
Now, a serious statement of caution: do not read into these numbers anything other than "these are who are showing up" to cast ballots. Trying to predict which candidate may/may not be ahead (the horse-race aspect to our elections) may be as futile as predicting the success of the Hail Mary App State-Troy game finale.
As political scientists who study North Carolina politics and especially voter and elections data, we can tell you the 'fool's errand' of thinking mail-in votes will give us any indication of the final tally: in 2020, the mail-in votes went 70 percent for Joe Biden, who lost the state ultimately by 1.3 percent.
By Christopher Cooper
As most readers of this blog know, Unaffiliated registered voters now outnumber registered Democrats or Republicans in North Carolina. This fact has been highlighted by print, television, and radio journalists across the state. We've written about it a few times ourselves.
But what about the candidates? Have we seen an uptick in Unaffiliated candidates as the number of Unaffiliated voters have risen? Are Unaffiliated candidates any more successful in a world where "none of the above" dominates in terms of partisan identification? Inspired by questions from Ridge Public Radio regional reporter Lilly Knoepp, I decided to dig into the data and find out.
By Michael Bitzer
With North Carolina having sent out its absentee by mail ballots (and the first ballots in the nation submitted the next day), we start the final leg of this mid-term election, culminating on November 8, 2022 and the county, and then state, certification of the official results for this mid-term election.
Along with my other colleagues, we will have a series of analyses regarding the major contests coming up for the Old North State to decide this fall: from the US Senate and US House contests, to the state legislative and supreme court races. In each, we hope to give some analysis of where things stand in terms of the voter pool, what we have seen in the past in various contests in terms of electoral turnout dynamics, and how this mid-term election may be shaping up.
In this piece, I'll take a look at the overall potential electorate--the registered voter pool as of September 6, 2022--and how it might shape the state-wide dynamics, especially the U.S. Senate contest that has stabilized into one of the most competitive contests, but up to this point seemingly a second-tier battle by the national media.
By Christopher Cooper
In a recent piece that was published in the Monkey Cage/Washington Post, friends of ONSP Scott Huffmon (Winthrop University), Gibbs Knotts (College of Charleston), Seth McKee (Oklahoma State University), and I used data from a Winthrop University poll of southerners to determine whether MAGA voters are distinct from other Republicans and what characteristics self-identified MAGA Republicans share.
Please read more here.
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Chris Cooper is the Madison Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Public Affairs at Western Carolina University. He tweets at @chriscooperwcu
by Christopher Cooper
The electoral winds are blowing behind the Republican Party in 2022. Thanks to high inflation, an economy that isn’t serving all sectors of society, and the inevitable losses faced by the party of the president in a midterm, this will almost certainly be a good year for Republicans running for the N.C. General Assembly. All else being equal, districts with even the slightest red hue are expected to land safely into Republican hands in 2022. But, what about the districts where all else isn’t necessarily equal?
I took at look at one such district, NC-119, in an issue of the NC Tribune. Please read more here: https://mailchi.mp/nctribune.com/en3i851nhv?e=4250b294d5
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Chris Cooper is the Madison Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Public Affairs at Western Carolina University. He tweets at @chriscooperwcu
By Whitney Ross Manzo
Last week, the Supreme Court of the United States began issuing its most controversial decisions of the 2021-2022 term. They do this every year around the end of June into early July, which is traditionally their 'end of the term' before going into their “vacation” until the 2022-2023 term starts on the first Monday in October. (During this break, justices do some work of reviewing petitions and preparing for the next term. However, they are not nearly as active as during the term, such as hearing oral arguments and releasing opinions, so that they can disappear to Austria, if they like.)
For people who study and teach on the Court, like Michael Bitzer and I do, words cannot adequately express how unprecedented and radical last week’s decisions were. We are used to teaching students about how the Court relies on stare decisis (literally “to stand by things decided”) in order to promote stability and consistency in law. We explain how justices must use sound legal reasoning in order for their decisions to be respected and upheld by the other branches of government, and ultimately by the public at large.
Last week’s decisions took a giant wrecking ball to
basically every lecture I have on the Supreme Court, because they illuminate
how none of these things are actually true. Justices don't rely on stare
decisis unless it suits them. Justices don't have to use sound legal reasoning
because, honestly, who’s going to stop them? They are the final say on the
Constitution, after all.
But should they be?
By Susan L. Roberts
Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health is indeed a landmark victory for the pro-life movement. The leaked draft unveiled by Politico on May 2 all but guaranteed a body blow to Roe. The formal opinion differed from the leaked draft opinion only minimally with the addition of the syllabus and Alito’s comments on the concurring and dissenting opinions. What is being parsed are the concurring and dissenting opinions, especially that of Justice Clarence Thomas. It goes without saying the implications and impact of the ruling overturning Roe are as varied as they are dramatic, and no single analysis can capture the fluid and fierce nature of situation of a post-Roe America.
Taking a step back from the close reading of the decision itself, let’s briefly look back at how we got here, what the national impact may be going forward, and what the impact may be for North Carolina. As I wrote in May 2021, this “perfect storm” for the anti-abortion cause has been the result of a both a slow and strategically incremental approach as well a more radical course of action dedicated to the single cause of overturning Roe.