Saturday, October 8, 2016

Ending the 4th Week of NC Absentee Mail-In Ballots

As we end the fourth week of North Carolina's absentee mail-in balloting, registered Republicans have taken their lead in requested ballots, as they traditional have done in the past. But in comparison to their percentages from four years ago, Republicans are significantly behind, while registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters are ahead of where their numbers were in 2012.

In total, over 121,000 ballots have been requested by mail-in, with 40 percent coming from registered Republicans, 32 percent from registered Democrats, 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters, and less than one percent from registered Libertarians.

Among those who have returned and had their ballots accepted, registered Democrats have a slight lead in their numbers over registered Republicans.


However, in comparison to their performance in 2012 (by same-day cumulative totals of accepted ballots), registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters continued to outpace their numbers from four years ago, 12 and 10 percent ahead respectively.


Total ballots are 18 percent below where they were this same day in 2012, while registered Republicans are 43 percent below where their 2012 numbers were on this same day out from the election.


In looking at the comparison data from when mail-in ballots were sent out by boards of elections, the registered Republican 'running behind' and registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters 'running ahead' trends are evident:


And finally, in looking at the pattern of how this year's absentee by mail-in ballot voters and their participation (or lack thereof) in 2012, a third of this year's voters participated in the same voting method (absentee by mail-in), but 38 percent voted in person, either via absentee (early) voting or on Election Day 2012.


Friday, October 7, 2016

Some more analysis of 10-7 Mail-In Ballots in North Carolina

Here's some more information on the North Carolina voters who have requested mail-in absentee ballots as of 10-7-16:




 


Nearing the End of the 4th Week of NC Absentee Mail-in Ballots

With the end of North Carolina's fourth week of accepting absentee mail-in ballots nearing, over 116,000 mail-in ballots have been requested, with 40 percent coming from registered Republicans, 32 percent from registered Democrats, and 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters. This advantage for registered Republicans has been the historic norm in absentee (early) mail-in balloting, while registered Democrats will take the advantage in absentee (early) in-person ballot that starts later in the month of October.


While registered GOP voters have the advantage in requesting mail-in ballots, registered Democrats still claim the advantage in returned and accepted ballots, with 39 percent of the total ballots returned and accepted, while registered Republicans have 36 percent of the over 21,000 accepted ballots, and 25 percent from registered unaffiliated voters.


In comparison to 2012's same-day cumulative totals for returned and accepted ballots, the total amount (21,000) is behind where 2012's total same-day number was; this year's returned and accepted mail-in ballots so far is 84 percent of where things stood four years ago.

However, registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters are continuing to outpace their numbers from 2012. 


Registered Democrats returning their ballots and having them accepted are currently at 115 percent of where they were in 2012 on the same day, with unaffiliated voters at 112 percent of their same day 2012 numbers; registered Republicans are behind on their same day totals, at 57 percent of where they were in 2012. 

Among the outstanding ballots, registered Republicans have the advantage here. 


Two other pieces of data analysis of these mail-in ballots: one is a comparison of the ballots 'sent out' to see the volume of where things stood in 2012 and how they match up, based on party registration, to this year's ballot requests. Again, the indications is that requested ballots for registered Republicans is running behind where they were in 2012, while registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters are running ahead of their requested ballots from four years ago. 


The second piece of analysis relates to how 2016 voters who are requesting mail-in ballots were involved in the 2012 general election: whether they were registered, and if they were, what method did they vote by in 2012. So far, it is interesting that only a third of this year's mail-in voters used the same method four years ago. 




Thursday, October 6, 2016

NC's Absentee Mail-In Ballots as of 10-6-16

Nearly 110,000 North Carolinians have requested absentee mail-in ballots through October 5, with 40 percent coming from registered Republicans, 32 percent from registered Democrats, 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters, and less than one percent from registered Libertarians.


Among the returned and accepted ballots, registered Democrats continue to lead, with registered Republicans about 500 ballots behind. Registered Democrats are 39 percent of the returned & accepted ballots, 36 percent from registered Republicans, and 25 percent from registered unaffiliated voters.


However, registered Democrats and registered unaffiliated voters continue to over-perform in comparison to their same day cumulative totals from 2012: while the total number of returned and accepted ballots are 86 percent of where they were four years ago, registered Democrats are at 117 percent and registered unaffiliated voters are at 116 percent, compared to 59 percent of where registered Republicans were in 2012's same day cumulative totals.


Outstanding ballots continue to be dominated by registered Republicans:


Two additional pieces of information that this data can be analyzed for is the comparison to 2012 of 'mailed' absentee mail-in ballots (those ballots mailed by Board of Elections on the same date prior to the election for four years ago and this year) and the voting methods (or lack thereof) in 2012 of this year's mail-in absentee voters.



Wednesday, October 5, 2016

10-5-16 NC Absentee Mail-In Ballots Analysis

As of 10-5-16, North Carolina's absentee accepted mail-in ballots have taken a slight dip in comparison to the overall same-day numbers compared to four years ago. In 2012 on this same day, a total of 20,265 ballots had been accepted; today, the number of accepted ballots is 17,317.
Of the requested ballots so far, 40 percent are from registered Republicans, 32 percent from registered Democrats, 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters, and less than one percent from registered Libertarians.

Among those accepted ballots, registered Democrats continue their lead:


40 percent of returned and accepted ballots are from registered Democrats, 36 percent from registered Republicans, and 25 percent from registered unaffiliated voters. Comparing returned and accepted ballots to the same day cumulative totals from the parties in 2012, registered Democrats still lead in their percentage (117 percent compared to their 2012 same-day cumulative numbers), with registered unaffiliated voters at 114 percent, and registered Republicans are at 58 percent of their same-day numbers.


One key advantage that registered Republicans has a greater percentage of outstanding mail-in ballots:


One additional analysis piece is looking at the voters who have requested mail-in ballots and their voting method (or lack thereof) from 2012:

Tuesday, October 4, 2016

The Patterns Continue for NC Absentee Mail-In Ballots as of 10-4-16

The patterns continue to hold into the fourth week of absentee mail-in ballots for North Carolina: registered Republicans lead in overall requested ballots, while registered Democrats lead in returned and accepted ballots so far as of October 4, 2016.

Nearly 97,200 North Carolinians have requested ballots, with 40 percent coming from registered Republican voters, 32 percent from registered Democrats, 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters, and less than 1 percent from registered Libertarians.


Of the 15,845 returned and accepted ballots, registered Democrats are 40 percent, registered Republicans at 35 percent, and registered unaffiliated voters are 25 percent.


Registered Democrats continue to lead in the accepted ballots numbers, and are over-performing their 2012 same-day comparison numbers, at 129 percent of where they were in accepted ballots on the same day from four years ago. Registered unaffiliated voters are 128 percent of their same-day accepted ballots, and registered Republicans are 66 percent of where they were four years ago on the same day. Overall, the total returned and accepted mail-in ballots are at 96 percent of where they were on the same day in 2012.


Finally, the number of outstanding mail-in ballots are over 80,000, with the following party registration break-down: