What Can NC's Early Voting Data Tell Us (and What They Don't)

By Michael Bitzer and Christopher Cooper 

In person-early voting kicked off yesterday in North Carolina, but before a single in-person vote was cast, more than 65,000 votes had already been accepted across all 100 counties. 

A host of political scientists, political analysis, and political consultants will be reporting patterns from these early voting numbers. Look for posts from the Kevin Bacon of North Carolina politics, Gerry Cohen (no one in #ncpol is more than six degrees removed), as well as from The John Locke Foundation's Andy Jackson, and University of Florida Political Scientist Michael McDonald. We will (individually and collectively) probably throw some of these results into the mix, too. 

So, before we get to the season of early voting data, it's worth thinking through the mail and early voting process--why we do it, what we can learn, and what we can't. 

Analyzing the Helene-FEMA Designated NC Counties

By Michael Bitzer

Amid the absolute devastation and human impact that the remnants of Hurricane Helene left on the South, and particularly on western North Carolina, more and more discussion is focused on the political impact that could be felt in a quarter of North Carolina's counties.

I would be remiss if I didn't ask us all--political analysts, journalists/reporters, campaigns and their operatives, and the general public, outside the 25 counties of FEMA designation--to remember these are fellow North Carolinians who have been impacted in a such a manner that very few of us can fully comprehend and realize the magnitude of what they will be confronting for months, if not years. 

But as is always the case in our hyper-polarized nation, the immediate question beyond that consideration of the human toll is: 'what's the political impact'? 

One Way of Understanding How a Political Asteroid Hit NC Politics

By Michael Bitzer

To say that 2024 has had more than its fair share of political earthquakes is an understatement: two assassination attempts of a presidential candidate alone would garner that designation. But then there's the first presidential debate, the July 21 reshuffle of the Democratic presidential ticket, and the unreal amount of money flowing into just the presidential campaign alone.

There are political earthquakes, and then there are political asteroids. 

The asteroid of 2024's campaign hit yesterday (Thursday, Sept. 19) in the form of a CNN report detailing allegations against North Carolina's Republican lieutenant governor, and gubernatorial candidate, Mark Robinson.

So What Might NC's 2024 Electorate Look Like?

By Michael Bitzer

As I'm teaching U.S. Campaigns & Elections this semester, I always try to relate my research interests into material for class, and this fall's class is no exception.

Recently, a student asked the great question for 2024: "what will NC's electorate look like this November?"

And I said, "well, I wish I knew--as does every campaign strategist and candidate. But here's what we know, based on 2020's electorate and where we are now in the 2024 voter pool."

So I thought I would share that information beyond the folks in the class. A warning: a lot of data is coming your way, so be prepared to swim in the deep end of the pool.

First, a comparison of what 2020's voter registration pool was like (those registered and who could show up to vote) to the 2020 actual electorate (those who did showed up to cast a ballot). 

Catawba College/YouGov Survey of North Carolinians and the 2024 Election: Confidence & Concerns

By Michael Bitzer

Catawba College has partnered with YouGov in surveying North Carolinians about their attitudes and opinions regarding the 2024 general election. Today we released the first of three findings concerned North Carolinians' confidences and concerns as we enter the home stretch of the 2024 campaign.

This survey was done for the Commission on the Future of North Carolina Elections, a cross-partisan group of over 60 North Carolinians who have come together in this public 'good government' organization dedicated to upholding the integrity of election administration in North Carolina. Its primary goal is to enhance confidence and trust in NC elections by educating the public about best practices and conducting research on electoral processes.

The survey of the state's general population is 1,000 North Carolinians who were reached by an online panel by YouGov from August 7 to 20, 2024. The margin of error for the general population is +/- 3.87 percent, with subgroups having a higher margin of error. It is also important to note that all survey research contains unmeasured error and results should be seen as informative, not definitive.

The various documents related to the survey's release can be found within this shared folder:

• Press release
• General Findings
• Top Line Findings
• Appendix document that contains information regarding weighted frequencies, methodology, and about the survey.
• Excel spreadsheet containing worksheets with cross tab analysis of the various questions, along with a PDF version of the spreadsheet file by the worksheets.

You can also find a short video with the survey's highlights on YouTube.

This is the first of three planned releases of data and findings from this Catawba/YouGov survey. 

Some Factors To Watch Now that We Have Harris-Walz versus Trump-Vance

By Michael Bitzer

As promised, now that Kamala Harris has selected Tim Walz of Minnesota as her running mate, here are some thoughts/pondering about North Carolina and what to expect over the next several months. 

Three things that I'll be watching unfold: what strategy from both camps are focused on the Trump-Cooper 2020 precincts; what is voter enthusiasm, i.e. turnout, like; and what are the campaigns' message framing, especially on social media? 

The Trump-Cooper Swing Precincts of NC

Based on some precinct analysis from the 2020 general election, if we think about the Trump-Cooper kind of voter, two-thirds of those split-ticket precincts are in the state's urban suburbs and rural counties.

After Two Weeks, A Data Dive Into the Harris Effect on NC Voter Registration

By Michael Bitzer

As I post this on Tuesday, August 6, we have the great mystery solved of who Kamala Harris will pick as her vice presidential nominee: Minnesota governor Tim Walz. I'm sure my colleagues and I will have more to say about the finalized Democratic ticket against the Trump-Vance Republican ticket in the future, but I wanted to post some further information on what we've seen in North Carolina politics over the past two weeks. 

As my colleague Chris Cooper has noted, it appears there's a some kind of "Harris Effect" on NC voter registration. In the two weeks post Biden's departure and Harris's elevation to be the Democratic presidential nominee, Chris notes that registration for Democrats has surpassed Republicans, whereas Republicans were above Democrats in the two weeks prior to the July 21 announcement. 

As a deeper dive, I posted on Bluesky & Twitter/X some further analysis of the trends in voter registration for the month of July, specifically looking at the period July 6 (the first Saturday of the month that the NC State Board of Elections gave us the weekly update on voter registration) through August 2 (to conclude the analysis). 

To conduct this analysis, I merged the July 6 with the August 2 NC voter registration data via the NCID 'key' for each voter (a unique identifier that stays with the voter) and then separated out the voters who were not registered on July 6 but were registered on August 2. That pool of voters is 34,180 new NC registered voters, with the following daily numbers in the period.

July 6 through August 2 NC Voter Registrations by Day

Five Weeks that Felt Like Five Years: Some Reflections on Where We Are and Heading in 2024's Election

By Michael Bitzer

For most academics, summer is a time to decompress and get caught up: on readings, maybe some research, prepping new material for the upcoming academic year's classes. 

That's for most academics. For those of us in political science, especially who study American politics, this notion of a "summer break" has yet to materialize, and as I write this blog entry on July 31, it's likely not going to materialize.

This past month--really since June 27 and the first presidential debate--has felt like it's been five years of news wrapped up in five weeks. And the eight-day stretch from the attempted assassination on former president Trump through the RNC to Biden's bow-out and Harris's juggernaut nomination left a lot of us just gasping for air from all of the 'breaking news.' 

And now, August. 

Was there a "Harris Effect" that Spiked Democratic Party Registration in NC? Evidence After One Week

By Christopher Cooper

As you certainly know, President Joe Biden announced last Sunday that he would withdraw from the 2024 Presidential election and endorse Vice-President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic nominee. By and large, Democrats responded to this news with something that has become a scarce resource in the Democratic Party--excitement. 

Although this feeling of hope is promising for Democrats, there is no Electoral College for excitement and votes don't count more for people who are super-pumped to cast them. For excitement to matter, it must translate to votes.

It's too soon to count votes, so our best early signs of whether Democrats can capitalize on this excitement are fundraising and party registration. There's no question that the Biden-Harris switch has inspired a fundraising bonanza--including perhaps the largest one day haul in U.S. history. 

But what about party registrations? Some evidence suggests that the Biden-Harris switch promoted massive increases in Democratic voter registration--one report indicates that it was the largest two day number of voter registrations this electoral cycle. One week in, is the "Harris effect" evident in North Carolina voter registrations? Using publicly available data, I tried to find out.

About the Veepstakes

by Christopher Cooper

In the last few days, coverage of the veepstakes (the nerdy play on words to describe the battle over who will become Harris' choice for Vice President) has suggested: It's Shapiro or Kelly, it's down to 12, it's down to 8, Mayor Pete is making a move, seems likely to be Beshear, it's Kelly or Walz, Whitmer is out, Whitmer is in, it will be someone with executive experience, and Cooper or Kelly will get the nod. 

It's almost like no one knows.* 

The Nexis of Mobilization & Engaged (or lack thereof) Voters

By Michael Bitzer

As we get into the summer lull of the general campaign before the unprecedented first presidential debate, followed by the party conventions (along with the Olympics in between the conventions), watchers of American politics are being bombarded by poll after poll about where various races stand. 

In other words, it's the dog days of summer and horserace polls that only tell us so much several months out from the general election. 

But one thing that has struck me is the early focus on who will likely be '2024 voters' and how the two parties (and other parties as well) will seek to motivate, mobilize, and get their voters--both the diehard engaged and those 'disengaged'--to November's polls.

In North Carolina, for political analysts and (especially) political operatives and campaigns, data can tell us which voters have been 'consistent' participants in their voting habits (thus, what we could describe as engaged voters), as opposed to those who are registered, but for whatever reason, just don't show up--what the AP focused on in a recent article on disengaged voters in the Old North State. 

One recent example in North Carolina is enlightening as to the cause and effect when it comes to voters who cast ballots--or more importantly, don't mobilize to cast a ballot. 

The Tendency & Tumble of Split Ticket Voting in North Carolina

By Michael Bitzer

I recently joined WUNC's Due South to talk about ticket-splitting voters, especially in North Carolina. The dynamic of ticket-splitting is often associated with how presidential and congressional candidates do within a district: we may hear of a Biden-Republican congressional representative district, or a Trump-Democratic district as a sign of the voters willing to divide their votes for different parties on the same ballot. We may also hear about a 'split' in how a state votes for president (for one party) and a U.S. Senate seat (for the other party).

But with North Carolina being one of eleven states that holds a gubernatorial election in a presidential election year, those of us who study NC politics have a natural experiment that lends itself to studying the impact of split-ticket, or the opposite dynamic of straight-ticket, voting on a state-wide scale.

As an example of this bi-polar partisan behavior, Greene County demonstrates what North Carolina experienced at the start of the 21st Century and the changes leading up to this year. In 2000's election, Greene County gave Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush 57.5 percent of its vote, but immediately below on the ballot, Republican gubernatorial candidate Richard Vinroot got only 40.4 percent of the vote--a difference of 17 percentage points, making it one of seven counties with a 17 point or greater difference between the GOP presidential and gubernatorial two-party vote percentages.

The Politics of Masking

By Todd Collins

Editor’s note: with the visibility regarding House Bill 237, the 'mask bill' that passed the North Carolina State Senate this week and sent to the State House, ONSP asked Dr. Todd Collins (a licensed attorney and legal/political scholar with extensive experience in the courtroom and the classroom) to offer his analysis on the bill. His views do not represent the opinions of his home academic institution.

Not too long ago the only political discussions about face coverings surrounded the “mask index.”  If you aren’t familiar, this is a way to predict the presidential election based on which candidate’s Halloween mask sells the most before an election.  

As the legend goes, this method has correctly predicted every election outcome since Ronald Reagan.  George W. Bush masks were the bigger sellers in 2000 and 2004, Obama masks outsold his Republican rivals in 2008 and 2012, and we saw more Donald Trump faces than Hillary Clinton’s on October 31, 2016.

Of course, national mask sells are really hard to quantify, so I wouldn’t make a parlay bet on the 2024 election based on statistics from Spencer’s Gifts.  But one thing that is clear is that masks have indeed become a recent “Hot Topic” (and yes, that’s two old-school mall store references in one paragraph if you’re keeping score).

Runoff Rundown

By Christopher Cooper

There was a second primary in North Carolina on May 14 for the Republican Auditor, Lieutenant Governor and NC-13 races (yes, there were a couple of runoffs for important local races too, but I'm just discussing the congressional and statewide here). So, what happened?

Turnout

Voter turnout in the second primary was somewhere between terrible and awful. Statewide, fewer than 3 percent of all eligible voters cast a vote. 

If you compare the number of people who cast a vote in the first primary for that office to the number who cast a vote in the second primary, things don't look much better. Turnout for the Republican Auditor second primary was ~14.5% of the first primary, Republican Lieutenant Governor was about 14% of original turnout and Republican 13th Congressional District was about 25.7% of original turnout.

Via The Assembly: The Short Life and Quiet Death of Ranked-Choice Voting in North Carolina

With the second primary (run-off) primary begin held tomorrow (May 14), Dr. Chris Cooper takes a look at the use of a voting technique that may have avoided the use of a run-off election: ranked-choice voting.

Cooper details ranked-choice voting's brief history and quiet death at The Assembly at: https://www.theassemblync.com/politics/elections/ranked-choice-votingnorth-carolina-elections/

Via LSE Blog: Why North Carolina is the purple state to watch in this election

Dr. Chris Cooper wrote an analysis for the London School of Economics and Political Science blog on US Politics & Policy on why the Old North State is the "purple state to watch" in 2024's general election. 

You can find his post here. 

Counties to Watch in the 2024 North Carolina General Election

By Christopher Cooper

Whether you want to call it a purple, swingy, battleground or competitive state, it is increasingly clear that North Carolina is the short-list of states that matter in the 2024 Presidential election. President Biden and Vice President Harris have visited North Carolina so often that state media are reporting about their favorite Cook-Out orders. 

For his part, Donald Trump has visited the state recently and, perhaps just as importantly, successfully advocated for former North Carolina GOP Chair Michael Whatley to become head of the Republican National Committee (along with North Carolina native Lara Trump). 

Then there's North Carolina's gubernatorial race, which is expected to be the most expensive, most watched, and most competitive in the country. The North Carolina Attorney General Race is going to draw more than the average number of eyeballs. Even the Superintendent of Public Instruction race is on the national radar. 

All this is to say: North Carolina matters.

But, as anyone has has ever attempted to order Eastern Barbecue West of Lexington knows, the state is not a monolith. Some counties in North Carolina prefer the tomato based sauce in the West and some prefer the vinegar based sauce in the East. And, more to the point of this blog, some counties lean heavily towards the Republican Party, and some towards the Democratic Party. A very few fall in that murky middle where political preferences are less clear. 

So, where is that murky middle? Where should political observers turn their attention in 2024?

You Mean We Have to Vote Again?!? Runoffs and second primaries in the 2024 North Carolina Election

by Christopher Cooper and Michael Bitzer

Like a dinner guest that just won't leave, we're not done with the 2024 primaries yet.[1] The Republican (statewide) primaries for North Carolina Auditor and Lt. Governor are headed to a second primary on May 14, 2024, as is the Republican side of the NC-13 congressional race, two (Republican) Gaston County Commission primaries, and the Orange County Schools Board of Education.

Now that the list of offices for the May 14, 2024 runoff is set, and ballots are being mailed out, we thought it would be a good time to address a few (five in this case) questions about second primaries and runoffs.

Ballot Roll-Off Was High in the North Carolina Republican Primary: Here's Why it Matters

 by Christopher Cooper

We are still clearing out the dust from the 2024 primary election in North Carolina, but two stories have emerged thus far: voter turnout was down to its lowest level since 2004 and Unaffiliated voters in early voting selected the Republican ballot almost two-thirds of the time--a massive increase for the Republican Party.

While those stories are clear and backed up by turnout as it is usually calculated, those numbers actually overstate turnout because many people engage in what political scientists call ballot-roll off--the practice of filling out the top of the ticket and skipping over offices farther down. As we will see below, ballot roll-off was high in the 2024 primary election, particularly on the Republican ballot. In a few cases, the number of people who rolled-off exceeded the vote martin between the top two candidates!

Drs. Cooper & Bitzer join "Do Politics Better" Podcast

Drs. Chris Cooper and Michael Bitzer join Brian Lewis and Skye David for their "Do Politics Better" podcast to talk early voting trends, races to watch, political party realignment, purity tests, and what surprises could be in store on election night. You can find the link to the podcast here:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/special-primary-election-preview-with-professors/id1557257071?i=1000647455704

North Carolina Super Tuesday 2024 Primary Watching Guide

By Christopher Cooper

As I post this (2:05 pm on election day), most North Carolinians have cast their ballots and will soon be turning to watching the results. What follows is a guide to watching those results--a cheat sheet, if you will--for what you can expect, when you can expect it, and which races to pay attention to. This guide isn't really meant for people who speak in #ncpol shorthand, but rather for people who spend most of their lives thinking about things other than politics and want to get up to speed quickly. 

With that throat-clearing intro out of the way, here is my (relatively) brief guide to Super Tuesday in North Carolina. 

What We Know about NC's Early Primary Votes and What We Might Expect for Tuesday's March 5 Election Day

By Michael Bitzer

With North Carolina's in person early voting now concluded, and the trickle of mail in ballots yet to come along with Election Day ballots, we can look back and see what the dynamics of early voting has to say about who, and which party, are showing up with banking primary election ballots.

Just under 700,000 early ballots have been accepted as of Monday, March 4 for all party primaries, with the division breaking heavily to the Republican Party primary side--not surprising because of the slightly contested presidential campaign between former president Donald Trump and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, the last standing major GOP candidate against the former two-time party nominee.

Data from NCSBE compiled by author

You’re going to wait longer for March 5 election results, North Carolina

You're going to wait longer for March 5 election results in North Carolina.

The reason is buried in section 29, page 18 of Senate bill 747. It reads as follows:

Clear as mud, right?

Chris Cooper and Michael Bitzer reflected on what this new legislation might mean in practice in a short piece in the News and Observer/Charlotte Observer.

News and Observer Link: https://www.newsobserver.com/opinion/article285856706.html 

Charlotte Observer Link: https://www.charlotteobserver.com/opinion/article285856706.html 

The NC State Board of Elections put out a more detailed release on the same issue: https://www.ncsbe.gov/news/press-releases/2024/02/27/some-election-results-will-be-reported-later-usual-due-state-law-changes 

Andy Jackson from the John Locke Foundation also weighed in on the issue:

https://www.johnlocke.org/election-data-will-come-later-but-we-will-still-know-results-on-election-night/

Past Trends in NC's Primary Elections & Voting Methods: More Primary Voters Moving to Early Voting

By Michael Bitzer

With North Carolina's start to early in-person voting (what has traditionally been referred to as "Absentee OneStop" since voters could both register to vote and cast their ballot in a one-stop process), past trends might give us a sense of what we could expect over the next few weeks leading up to the March 5th primary election day.

In calculating the below charts for the 2016, 2020, and 2022 primary elections, I relied on the NC State Board of Elections "voter history" data files that keeps a record of the vote method and party primary that voters cast their ballots in. 

In pulling this information together, I decided against using 2018's primary election, as it was a 'blue-moon' election cycle with no major state-wide contest on the ballot (no presidential contest, for example, nor a U.S. Senate contest). With this year's presidential primary contest, I'm looking at the past two presidential primaries and the most recent mid-term U.S. Senate primary election (2022). 

Five Questions As We Enter the Official Election Season in NC

by Christopher Cooper

Pitchers and catchers are reporting to Spring Training, a few flowers are peeking out to take a look around, and roadways across North Carolina are increasingly littered with political signs. Spring is coming and the the 2024 election is here. 

 

Although ballots have been accepted in North Carolina since January 21, the election shifted into a different gear yesterday--the first day of in person early voting. As a result, it seems like as good a time as any to take a look towards the 2024 election and identify a few questions that observers of North Carolina politics should be watching.

Now All GOP Eyes Turn South to the Palmetto State's Politics

By Michael Bitzer

Now that the first two contests of the GOP presidential primary season are in the books, all eyes now turn to February 24's primary in South Carolina, the "first in the South" contest for the Republicans (Democrats will have their official first primary contest in the nation in South Carolina on February 3). 

Before diving into Palmetto politics, a bit of a review of some interesting trends in both Iowa's and New Hampshire's polls (entrance for the Hawkeye State, exit for the Granite State).

Previewing 2024's Election Year? Buckle-Up

By Michael Bitzer

Well, it's the start of the new year and new semester, and with the 2024 Election year now officially upon us, I (along with my fellow contributors) will share some thoughts as to what we'll be watching for over the coming months. 

For me, it's a single phrase: buckle-up, cause it's gonna be a bumpy year.

A Variety of Media Appearances to Start 2024

Several of the blog contributors have been busy with media appearances as the new year starts and the official kick-off of Election 2024 begins. 

You can find the following contributors at these recent appearances:

Dr. Susan Roberts was on WFAE's Charlotte Talks with Mike Collins with a 2024 political preview: https://www.wfae.org/show/charlotte-talks-with-mike-collins/2023-12-19/a-2024-political-preview

Drs. Chris Cooper and Michael Bitzer were on Spectrum News 1's Capital Tonight (starting at 10:50): https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/coastal/capital-tonight/2024/01/03/border-policy-impact-on-elections#

Drs. Roberts and Bitzer were on WUNC's Due South's inaugural "Purple Ballot" series episode: https://www.wunc.org/show/due-south/2024-01-02/due-south-2024-election-preview

Dr. Bitzer was on WCNC's Flashpoint along with Winthrop University's Dr. Scott Huffmon (starting at 10:05): https://www.wcnc.com/video/news/live_stream/flashpoint/275-872a9285-37d5-4ff3-8e03-cfcc1f950d8f