In a recent Pew Research report,
Millennials (those born in 1981 up to the beginning of the new millennium) will
overtake Baby Boomers (those born from 1945 to 1965, generally) as the nation’s
largest living generation. And, to quote
a famous line drummed into history about the baby boomers, the torch is finally
being passed to a new generation.
There is no doubt that the Millennials’ rise, as a techno-savvy,
diverse, and highly educated generation,
will impact the nation in a variety of ways, most notably through its politics.
Some doubt the real impact of Millennials, however; Philip
Bump, writing for the Washington Post’s Wonkblog, says that Millennials
won’t matter very much in American politics until they get older.
But in North Carolina, at least, the impact of the
Millennial generation is being felt in the pool of potential voters, but not in
the composition of voters casting ballots—at least, not yet.
In the database of registered North Carolina voters from the
NC State Board of Elections and matching up records of those who cast ballots
with their basic demographic information, the most interesting trend since 2000
has been the growing percentage of Millennials in the registered voter pool.
Since the beginning of the 21st Century, North Carolina voters
in the Millennial generation have gone from 2 percent of the registered voter
pool to 26 percent in 2014, while Baby Boomers have seen their proportion of
the pool shrink from 45 percent down to 32 percent over the same time period.
The past trends suggest that between presidential elections in North Carolina,
the percentage of the pool of registered Millennial voters increases 8 percent,
with the percentage of the pool increasing 2 percent between presidential and
mid-term election years. If these trends hold, then Millennial registered
voters will go from 24 percent in 2012 to 32 percent in 2016, matching that year’s
likely proportion of Baby Boomers in the state's eligible voter pool.
With nearly a third of the registered voters and many of
them maturing into political participation, Millennials will begin to impact
the state’s politics; and, in fact, they already are.
Among Millennial voters, as of the end of 2014, 37 percent
are registered Democrats, 37 percent are registered unaffiliated, and only a
quarter of Millennial voters are registered Republican. This may be one of the early demographic
warning signs that some Republicans have been concerned about.
But as Bump noted, in the past two presidential and mid-term
elections, Millennials have not shown up at comparable levels to their
registration percentages.
In both the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, 68 percent
and 55 percent of Millennials cast ballots; however, in comparison, all other generations had higher
percentages showing up, with Baby Boomers at 84 percent and 78 percent in 2008
and 2012, respectively.
With the lower turnout rates, Millennials were only 13 and 19 percent in the 2008 and 2012 electorates, respectively,
while Baby Boomers were 39 and 43 percent of the presidential elections. This isn’t unheard of, since younger voters,
no matter the generation, typically do not show up at the ballot box until they
hold steady jobs, have families, and are more grounded in the economic and
political system.
So while the Millennial generation’s overall numbers are
signaling the critical shift in voter registration, that is the first sign of
their growing level of importance. Whether one party, or both, recognizes the
future wave of Millennials coming through the political system and respond will
be the key test to see how much their generation begins to shape not just North
Carolina, but the nation as a whole.
