In fact, in his kick-off for the general campaign after Sen. Clinton endorsed him this past Saturday, Sen. Obama came to Raleigh to begin his economic-oriented tour of the country. Many talking heads and pundits have said "this signals that the Obama campaign will make North Carolina a targeted state for this fall."
Well, what do the numbers tell us? Accordingly to some data provided by the NC State Board of Elections and some analysis that I have done:
- Sen. Obama did win an impressive 14% victory over Sen. Clinton in the May 6th primary. But that was in the Democratic primary (granted, for every voter in the same date Republican primary, there were 3 voters casting ballots in the Democratic primary).
- Over the past few presidential elections, North Carolina has been a fairly reliable red state. In 2000 and 2004, George W. Bush won the state by 13 percentage points. From 2000 to 2004, Bush increased his vote total by 300,000 votes, even with a Tar Heel on the ticket in '04 (John Edwards).
- Now, if it is true that both candidates (McCain and Obama) are going to go huntin' in each other's backyards, then things may be all over the place. North Carolina certainly would be one area to watch, with 20 percent of registered voters being black. More importantly, in the major urban counties, such as Mecklenburg and Wake, black voters make up 29% and 19% respectively.
- In the May primary, with counties having over 29% registered black voters, Obama won 65% to Clinton's 33%. Conversely,...
- In the same election and in counties with 10% or less registered black voters, Obama won 38% to Clinton's 59%.
- Again, same election, but in the 10 urban/suburban counties that made up 50% of the Democratic primary vote, Obama won 65% to Clinton's 33%. Registered black voters in these counties range from 38% in Cumberland County, home to Fayetteville, to 6% in Buncombe County in the mountains--BUT also home to the UNC-Asheville, a well-known liberal area of the mountains and one of two mountain counties (the other being Watauga, home to App State) that voted for Obama in the primary.
So what does all this mean? Well, if Sen. Obama wants to carry the Tar Heel state this fall, he has to push his vote up significantly in those 10-15 major metropolitan counties that will decide this fall's general election, as well as do better than 38% in those rural counties, especially in the mountains and along the Jessecrat region of the state (see previous post on those voters).
In this analyst's view, making all that happen will require some significant work to flip this state. But as this year has proven, odder things have happened.