What Can NC's Early Voting Data Tell Us (and What They Don't)

By Michael Bitzer and Christopher Cooper 

In person-early voting kicked off yesterday in North Carolina, but before a single in-person vote was cast, more than 65,000 votes had already been accepted across all 100 counties. 

A host of political scientists, political analysis, and political consultants will be reporting patterns from these early voting numbers. Look for posts from the Kevin Bacon of North Carolina politics, Gerry Cohen (no one in #ncpol is more than six degrees removed), as well as from The John Locke Foundation's Andy Jackson, and University of Florida Political Scientist Michael McDonald. We will (individually and collectively) probably throw some of these results into the mix, too. 

So, before we get to the season of early voting data, it's worth thinking through the mail and early voting process--why we do it, what we can learn, and what we can't. 

Analyzing the Helene-FEMA Designated NC Counties

By Michael Bitzer

Amid the absolute devastation and human impact that the remnants of Hurricane Helene left on the South, and particularly on western North Carolina, more and more discussion is focused on the political impact that could be felt in a quarter of North Carolina's counties.

I would be remiss if I didn't ask us all--political analysts, journalists/reporters, campaigns and their operatives, and the general public, outside the 25 counties of FEMA designation--to remember these are fellow North Carolinians who have been impacted in a such a manner that very few of us can fully comprehend and realize the magnitude of what they will be confronting for months, if not years. 

But as is always the case in our hyper-polarized nation, the immediate question beyond that consideration of the human toll is: 'what's the political impact'? 

One Way of Understanding How a Political Asteroid Hit NC Politics

By Michael Bitzer

To say that 2024 has had more than its fair share of political earthquakes is an understatement: two assassination attempts of a presidential candidate alone would garner that designation. But then there's the first presidential debate, the July 21 reshuffle of the Democratic presidential ticket, and the unreal amount of money flowing into just the presidential campaign alone.

There are political earthquakes, and then there are political asteroids. 

The asteroid of 2024's campaign hit yesterday (Thursday, Sept. 19) in the form of a CNN report detailing allegations against North Carolina's Republican lieutenant governor, and gubernatorial candidate, Mark Robinson.

So What Might NC's 2024 Electorate Look Like?

By Michael Bitzer

As I'm teaching U.S. Campaigns & Elections this semester, I always try to relate my research interests into material for class, and this fall's class is no exception.

Recently, a student asked the great question for 2024: "what will NC's electorate look like this November?"

And I said, "well, I wish I knew--as does every campaign strategist and candidate. But here's what we know, based on 2020's electorate and where we are now in the 2024 voter pool."

So I thought I would share that information beyond the folks in the class. A warning: a lot of data is coming your way, so be prepared to swim in the deep end of the pool.

First, a comparison of what 2020's voter registration pool was like (those registered and who could show up to vote) to the 2020 actual electorate (those who did showed up to cast a ballot). 

Catawba College/YouGov Survey of North Carolinians and the 2024 Election: Confidence & Concerns

By Michael Bitzer

Catawba College has partnered with YouGov in surveying North Carolinians about their attitudes and opinions regarding the 2024 general election. Today we released the first of three findings concerned North Carolinians' confidences and concerns as we enter the home stretch of the 2024 campaign.

This survey was done for the Commission on the Future of North Carolina Elections, a cross-partisan group of over 60 North Carolinians who have come together in this public 'good government' organization dedicated to upholding the integrity of election administration in North Carolina. Its primary goal is to enhance confidence and trust in NC elections by educating the public about best practices and conducting research on electoral processes.

The survey of the state's general population is 1,000 North Carolinians who were reached by an online panel by YouGov from August 7 to 20, 2024. The margin of error for the general population is +/- 3.87 percent, with subgroups having a higher margin of error. It is also important to note that all survey research contains unmeasured error and results should be seen as informative, not definitive.

The various documents related to the survey's release can be found within this shared folder:

• Press release
• General Findings
• Top Line Findings
• Appendix document that contains information regarding weighted frequencies, methodology, and about the survey.
• Excel spreadsheet containing worksheets with cross tab analysis of the various questions, along with a PDF version of the spreadsheet file by the worksheets.

You can also find a short video with the survey's highlights on YouTube.

This is the first of three planned releases of data and findings from this Catawba/YouGov survey. 

Some Factors To Watch Now that We Have Harris-Walz versus Trump-Vance

By Michael Bitzer

As promised, now that Kamala Harris has selected Tim Walz of Minnesota as her running mate, here are some thoughts/pondering about North Carolina and what to expect over the next several months. 

Three things that I'll be watching unfold: what strategy from both camps are focused on the Trump-Cooper 2020 precincts; what is voter enthusiasm, i.e. turnout, like; and what are the campaigns' message framing, especially on social media? 

The Trump-Cooper Swing Precincts of NC

Based on some precinct analysis from the 2020 general election, if we think about the Trump-Cooper kind of voter, two-thirds of those split-ticket precincts are in the state's urban suburbs and rural counties.

After Two Weeks, A Data Dive Into the Harris Effect on NC Voter Registration

By Michael Bitzer

As I post this on Tuesday, August 6, we have the great mystery solved of who Kamala Harris will pick as her vice presidential nominee: Minnesota governor Tim Walz. I'm sure my colleagues and I will have more to say about the finalized Democratic ticket against the Trump-Vance Republican ticket in the future, but I wanted to post some further information on what we've seen in North Carolina politics over the past two weeks. 

As my colleague Chris Cooper has noted, it appears there's a some kind of "Harris Effect" on NC voter registration. In the two weeks post Biden's departure and Harris's elevation to be the Democratic presidential nominee, Chris notes that registration for Democrats has surpassed Republicans, whereas Republicans were above Democrats in the two weeks prior to the July 21 announcement. 

As a deeper dive, I posted on Bluesky & Twitter/X some further analysis of the trends in voter registration for the month of July, specifically looking at the period July 6 (the first Saturday of the month that the NC State Board of Elections gave us the weekly update on voter registration) through August 2 (to conclude the analysis). 

To conduct this analysis, I merged the July 6 with the August 2 NC voter registration data via the NCID 'key' for each voter (a unique identifier that stays with the voter) and then separated out the voters who were not registered on July 6 but were registered on August 2. That pool of voters is 34,180 new NC registered voters, with the following daily numbers in the period.

July 6 through August 2 NC Voter Registrations by Day

Five Weeks that Felt Like Five Years: Some Reflections on Where We Are and Heading in 2024's Election

By Michael Bitzer

For most academics, summer is a time to decompress and get caught up: on readings, maybe some research, prepping new material for the upcoming academic year's classes. 

That's for most academics. For those of us in political science, especially who study American politics, this notion of a "summer break" has yet to materialize, and as I write this blog entry on July 31, it's likely not going to materialize.

This past month--really since June 27 and the first presidential debate--has felt like it's been five years of news wrapped up in five weeks. And the eight-day stretch from the attempted assassination on former president Trump through the RNC to Biden's bow-out and Harris's juggernaut nomination left a lot of us just gasping for air from all of the 'breaking news.' 

And now, August. 

Was there a "Harris Effect" that Spiked Democratic Party Registration in NC? Evidence After One Week

By Christopher Cooper

As you certainly know, President Joe Biden announced last Sunday that he would withdraw from the 2024 Presidential election and endorse Vice-President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic nominee. By and large, Democrats responded to this news with something that has become a scarce resource in the Democratic Party--excitement. 

Although this feeling of hope is promising for Democrats, there is no Electoral College for excitement and votes don't count more for people who are super-pumped to cast them. For excitement to matter, it must translate to votes.

It's too soon to count votes, so our best early signs of whether Democrats can capitalize on this excitement are fundraising and party registration. There's no question that the Biden-Harris switch has inspired a fundraising bonanza--including perhaps the largest one day haul in U.S. history. 

But what about party registrations? Some evidence suggests that the Biden-Harris switch promoted massive increases in Democratic voter registration--one report indicates that it was the largest two day number of voter registrations this electoral cycle. One week in, is the "Harris effect" evident in North Carolina voter registrations? Using publicly available data, I tried to find out.

About the Veepstakes

by Christopher Cooper

In the last few days, coverage of the veepstakes (the nerdy play on words to describe the battle over who will become Harris' choice for Vice President) has suggested: It's Shapiro or Kelly, it's down to 12, it's down to 8, Mayor Pete is making a move, seems likely to be Beshear, it's Kelly or Walz, Whitmer is out, Whitmer is in, it will be someone with executive experience, and Cooper or Kelly will get the nod. 

It's almost like no one knows.*