The Morning After NC's Primary Election, and the Story is: 2 Votes

By Michael Bitzer

It’s an extremely early morning after the North Carolina primary election and making sense of what happened last night requires some initial thoughts, followed by (surprise, surprise) the official results and data to analyze.

But here are some way-too-early reactions to what we saw in last night’s returns.

When they say ‘every vote counts,’ they literally mean it—especially it’s 2 votes.

With all due deference to the U.S. Senate nomination contests, the real race of the evening was the N.C. State Senate District 26 Republican nomination battle between the most powerful GOP official for the past 15 years, Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger, and his home county sheriff and bête noire Sam Page.

When all the precincts reported and the results still unofficial, Page bested Berger by two votes.

It's Primary Day in North Carolina!

 by Christopher Cooper

Today, North Carolina, Texas, and Arkansas kick off the 2026 primary season. But no state better illustrates the collision between nationalized politics and intensely local battles than North Carolina. Here are a few tools to get you ready for what’s happening in the Old North State.

Early Vote Energy Before Tuesday's Finish Line for NC's Primary Election

By Michael Bitzer

Before a single Election Day ballot is cast, North Carolina’s 2026 primary has already told us something important.

Early voting totals have surpassed both the 2022 midterm primary and the 2024 presidential primary at the same point in the calendar. That alone makes this cycle notable. But the real story is not simply about aggregate numbers — it is about who is voting, which ballot they are pulling, and how those choices compare to recent cycles.

The top-line figure suggests heightened engagement. Yet beneath that surface lies a far more revealing set of dynamics: a Democratic primary outperforming recent benchmarks, an unusually strong Unaffiliated tilt toward the Democratic ballot, and a geographic pattern that reinforces the state’s now-familiar urban–suburban–rural divide.

NC Early Voting Continues to Break the Script

By Michael Bitzer

With just days left before early voting ends in North Carolina, one thing is clear: the trends discussed earlier this week aren’t fading—they’re holding and accelerating. And they point to one unmistakable development—a pronounced Democratic turnout advantage that has yet to show signs of narrowing.

As North Carolina’s early voting gets closer to the last day (ending on Saturday at 3 PM), through Wednesday, 2026 turnout is running 29 percent ahead of the comparable point in the 2022 midterm primary and 9 percent ahead of 2024’s presidential primary. That latter comparison is particularly notable given that presidential cycles typically drive higher participation—even if 2024 featured little Democratic competition at the top of the ticket.

The Democrats' Appalachian Problem

by Christopher Cooper

Few places tell the story of the Democrats' decline better than the rocky, densely forested land known as Appalachia.

It’s not that the parties have flipped in Appalachia—it’s that the Republican strength in the region has become more entrenched and the Democrats are largely shut-out. The Republicans have long been ahead, but today they’ve left the Democrats in the dust.

An Early Surge Is Surprising North Carolina’s Primary Election

By Michael Bitzer

Through the first 10 days of early voting, North Carolina’s 2026 primary electorate is not just ahead of past cycles—it is potentially reshaping expectations about which party is energized, who is participating, and how they’re voting.

In daily totals1, 2026 is standing out as a remarkable primary election so far—33 percent ahead of the 2022 mid-term primary early voting (on the same date) and 16 percent ahead of 2024’s primary early voting.

We’ll need to watch carefully a couple aspects to this trend: will the last week taper off in terms of daily numbers, are these consistent/persistent primary voters (compared to the last two primary elections), and if so, are they shifting their ballot casting earlier, or new voters coming (more on this later)?

North Carolina Primary Smorgasbord

 Last Thursday (February 12, 2026) marked the beginning of in person early voting in North Carolina. So, where do we stand and what should we watch?

NC's Partisan Stability vs. Independent Uncertainty

By Michael Bitzer

One of the interesting things I found in the generic ballot questions in last month’s Catawba-YouGov Survey was a consistency of voter intentions across the five contests asked (U.S. Senate, U.S. House, N.C. Supreme Court, N.C. State House, and N.C. State Senate).

As noted in the release, Democratic candidates generally received about 45 percent of the vote to Republicans receiving 38 percent, with less than 15 percent undecided.

But when looking at the partisan identification, we see some distinctiveness when it comes to voter intention. Take for example the U.S. Senate generic ballot contest (broken into “definitely/likely voting for Democratic candidate vs. undecided vs. definitely/likely voting for Republican candidate”1): we see clear partisan loyalty among those who self-identify as Democratic and Republican, while those who said they were ‘independent’ are more divided, but lean towards one party.

Catawba-YouGov January 2026 Survey of 1,000 (weighted) North Carolinians: Vote for U.S. Senate in November based on “Democratic Candidate” versus “Republican Candidate” based on Initial Partisan Identification, with margins of error bars for overall and subgroups shown (overall MOE +/- 3.69%).

The Early Voting Sites are Set for the 2026 Primary in North Carolina. How Does the 2026 Plan Compare to Previous Primary Elections?

 by Christopher Cooper

North Carolina’s 2026 early voting plans for the primary election, which determine when, where and how easily North Carolinians can cast their ballots before election day, are now set and the final list of sites is posted to the North Carolina State Board of Elections web site.

What does the 2026 primary plan say and how does it compare1 to previous years?2

The Battle to Be First in the Democratic Presidential Primary Isn't Worth It for NC

by Christopher Cooper 

Five states—New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, and North Carolina—are battling for the coveted first slot on the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primary calendar, hoping to gain the power and attention that comes with it.1

While some of these states, like Iowa and New Hampshire, represent the usual suspects, North Carolina is a newcomer to this battle for first.

North Carolina has a lot of advantages as a first state. It’s a purple, growing and diverse state with a large number of urban, suburban, and rural voters. It’s proximate to the Washington, DC press corps and has multiple media markets. As a bellwether for the country, you could do a lot worse.

While this might appeal to the national Democratic Party, North Carolina should let other states duke it out. The first slot would bring power and attention, but the financial costs and voter confusion aren't worth it.2