The 40 Percent Question: Who Are North Carolina’s Unaffiliated Voters?

By Michael Bitzer

With four in ten of the 7.8 million North Carolina registered voters having selected ‘unaffiliated’ in their party registration, pundits continue to describe these voters as ‘political independents’—with the idea that they are up for grabs between the two major parties (which themselves are at 30 percent each).

A recent podcast that explores the political U.S. South highlighted whether North Carolina was ready to ‘flip to the Democrats’ with this year’s U.S. Senate election—with Mitch Landrieu observing that the state’s unaffiliated voters are “otherwise known as independents—in the middle…”

And one of the state’s leading partisan strategist—Democrat Morgan Jackson—noted that unaffiliateds “don’t want to affiliate with either political party,” while Republican strategist Paul Shumaker observed that the unaffiliated voters are concerned about what impacts them directly in deciding their vote—and by extension, are not partisan loyalists.

Being registered unaffiliated tells us how someone is registered. It does not, by itself, tell us how that person thinks, votes or identifies politically.

So are these unaffiliated voters really independents and therefore up for grabs in North Carolina? The answer, at least from the evidence presented here, is not necessarily—and perhaps not even in the same way from Manteo to Murphy.

How Lindsey Graham’s keen ability to read the moment propelled him to political relevance for 3 decades

by Christopher Cooper and H. Gibbs Knotts

Since South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death on June 11, 2026, much of the commentary has focused on his evolution from Donald Trump critic to Trump ally.

But focusing on that transformation misses the broader pattern that defined his political career. For more than three decades, Graham repeatedly positioned himself where Republican politics in the South were headed rather than where they had been.

Gibbs Knotts and I explain more in this piece for The Conversation, And, because of the Conversation's Creative Commons license, it is available to repost for free (with attribution).

The Unlikely District that May Signal a Wave Election

 How big, or how little, a Democratic wave ends up being this November will be determined by how deeply Democrats can cut into reliably Republican districts.

I wrote about one of those districts, North Carolina’s 11th, for Sabato’s Crystal Ball—hope you’ll give it a read:

Big thanks to Kyle Kondik, J. Miles Coleman, and, of course, the GOAT, Larry Sabato, for the opportunity to write this one. The Crystal Ball is consistently recognized as one of the most informative political newsletters going. Subscriptions are free, too, so if you want to keep informed about the 2026 election, click, hunt, and peck your way to a subscription here: 

North Carolina’s New Election Bill Isn’t Just One Thing

by Christopher Cooper

A new election bill (H958) is making the rounds in the North Carolina General Assembly. Well, it’s kind of new. It’s actually an old bill (originally introduced in 2025) that has been revived and revised through what’s known as a Proposed Committee Substitute (PCS).1

There’s a lot in it and the details get confusing, but it is not true that all of it is about “voter suppression.” It’s also not true that it’s all non-controversial. Like most bills of this length, it is full of ideas—about 40 total policy changes. Some of these changes expand voter access, some restrict voter access, some change institutional powers, and some are so benign as to not require comment.

If you like being in the weeds, I encourage you to read the whole thing.2 For those with other things to do, however, I list ten of the highlights3 below and then expand a bit on three provisions of the bill—one which changes the rules around party switching for candidates, one which changes what county election board members can (and cannot say), and one which would ban ranked choice voting.

Who Decides Where We Vote? The Jackson County Early Voting Controversy Explained

by Christopher Cooper

People often assume that decisions about voting are made in legislatures or courts—and many are. But many other critical decisions about voting are made not by these elected bodies but by appointed ones. For example, all 100 county boards of elections are currently deciding where to place early voting sites for the 2026 General Election.

Often these decisions are not particularly controversial. For example, in the 2026 primary, 88 county boards came to unanimous agreement. In the cases where the board disagrees, the decision then moves to the state board of elections where it’s a bit more controversial.

One of the more controversial decisions is happening in my home county of Jackson. While local and state journalists are doing an excellent job covering the story, the players, and the consequences, I thought I’d offer a complementary perspective based on my expertise as a political scientist who studies, among other things, state politics and elections.

The Other Story of Redistricting

by Christopher Cooper

At the beginning of the academic year, I got a poster-sized version of the United States Congressional districts printed out for my office. It wasn’t long before it was out of date.

Rather than pay to print a new map with every mid-decade redraw, I started to add sticky notes to the map, indicating, for example, that the Republicans in Texas had picked up five seats or that the Democrats in Utah had picked up one.

My makeshift map represents a pretty common way to think about redistricting—we add up Republican and Democratic gains to get a sense of how the current redraw will favor one party or another.

The Supreme Court’s Voting Rights Decision Doesn’t Mean Much for N.C.—Yet

by Christopher Cooper Just finished a piece for The Assembly on the short and long term implications of the recent Callais decision for North Carolina. Check it out at: https://www.theassemblync.com/news/politics/supreme-court-voting-rights-callais-north-carolina/

Nothing Left to Lose: Why Lame Duck Party Switches are Notable, But Unlikely to Change Policy

 by Christopher Cooper

“Freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose.” - Kris Kristofferson

Two Democratic members of the North Carolina House —Carla Cunningham and Nasif Majeed—recently changed their party registration from Democrat to Unaffiliated. With these switches, Cunningham and Majeed became just the third and fourth members of the General Assembly to serve under the Unaffiliated label and the 10th and 11th legislators to switch party while they are in office.

A Brief Note About President Trump's Executive Order on Mail Voting

 by Christopher Cooper

President Trump just signed a new Executive Order (EO) on mail voting. There’s a lot to digest and Election Law guru Rick Hasen has some predictably smart thoughts at electionlawblog.org

For now, I’ll let other people, like Hasen, debate the legality of the President dictating election law (a power that is not given to him in the Constitution), and the wisdom of directing the USPS to vet voter lists, and I’ll focus on the 60 day provision (see the clip below).

Trump Approval Drops as North Carolinians Oppose Iran Escalation; Cooper Leads Senate Race

By Michael Bitzer

One month into the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, North Carolinians have grown more negative in their views of President Donald Trump, according to a new Catawba-YouGov survey. A plurality say the U.S. was wrong to attack Iran, and as the Pentagon signals a potentially prolonged conflict with ground operations, a strong majority oppose deploying troops. 

The survey also finds that Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley in the early horserace numbers for the U.S. Senate election, 48 percent to 34 percent among likely voters (including those who initially said they were undecided but lean toward a candidate), with 14 percent undecided.