by Christopher Cooper
Today, North Carolina, Texas, and Arkansas kick off the 2026 primary season. But no state better illustrates the collision between nationalized politics and intensely local battles than North Carolina. Here are a few tools to get you ready for what’s happening in the Old North State.
By Michael Bitzer
Before a single Election Day ballot is cast, North Carolina’s 2026 primary has already told us something important.
Early voting totals have surpassed both the 2022 midterm primary and the 2024 presidential primary at the same point in the calendar. That alone makes this cycle notable. But the real story is not simply about aggregate numbers — it is about who is voting, which ballot they are pulling, and how those choices compare to recent cycles.
The top-line figure suggests heightened engagement. Yet beneath that surface lies a far more revealing set of dynamics: a Democratic primary outperforming recent benchmarks, an unusually strong Unaffiliated tilt toward the Democratic ballot, and a geographic pattern that reinforces the state’s now-familiar urban–suburban–rural divide.
By Michael Bitzer
With just days left before early voting ends in North Carolina, one thing is clear: the trends discussed earlier this week aren’t fading—they’re holding and accelerating. And they point to one unmistakable development—a pronounced Democratic turnout advantage that has yet to show signs of narrowing.
As North Carolina’s early voting gets closer to the last day (ending on Saturday at 3 PM), through Wednesday, 2026 turnout is running 29 percent ahead of the comparable point in the 2022 midterm primary and 9 percent ahead of 2024’s presidential primary. That latter comparison is particularly notable given that presidential cycles typically drive higher participation—even if 2024 featured little Democratic competition at the top of the ticket.
by Christopher Cooper
Few places tell the story of the Democrats' decline better than the rocky, densely forested land known as Appalachia.
It’s not that the parties have flipped in Appalachia—it’s that the Republican strength in the region has become more entrenched and the Democrats are largely shut-out. The Republicans have long been ahead, but today they’ve left the Democrats in the dust.
By Michael Bitzer
Through the first 10 days of early voting, North Carolina’s 2026 primary electorate is not just ahead of past cycles—it is potentially reshaping expectations about which party is energized, who is participating, and how they’re voting.
In daily totals1, 2026 is standing out as a remarkable primary election so far—33 percent ahead of the 2022 mid-term primary early voting (on the same date) and 16 percent ahead of 2024’s primary early voting.
Last Thursday (February 12, 2026) marked the beginning of in person early voting in North Carolina. So, where do we stand and what should we watch?
By Michael Bitzer
One of the interesting things I found in the generic ballot questions in last month’s Catawba-YouGov Survey was a consistency of voter intentions across the five contests asked (U.S. Senate, U.S. House, N.C. Supreme Court, N.C. State House, and N.C. State Senate).
As noted in the release, Democratic candidates generally received about 45 percent of the vote to Republicans receiving 38 percent, with less than 15 percent undecided.
But when looking at the partisan identification, we see some distinctiveness when it comes to voter intention. Take for example the U.S. Senate generic ballot contest (broken into “definitely/likely voting for Democratic candidate vs. undecided vs. definitely/likely voting for Republican candidate”1): we see clear partisan loyalty among those who self-identify as Democratic and Republican, while those who said they were ‘independent’ are more divided, but lean towards one party.
by Christopher Cooper
North Carolina’s 2026 early voting plans for the primary election, which determine when, where and how easily North Carolinians can cast their ballots before election day, are now set and the final list of sites is posted to the North Carolina State Board of Elections web site.
What does the 2026 primary plan say and how does it compare1 to previous years?2
by Christopher Cooper
Five states—New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, and North Carolina—are battling for the coveted first slot on the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primary calendar, hoping to gain the power and attention that comes with it.1
While some of these states, like Iowa and New Hampshire, represent the usual suspects, North Carolina is a newcomer to this battle for first.
North Carolina has a lot of advantages as a first state. It’s a purple, growing and diverse state with a large number of urban, suburban, and rural voters. It’s proximate to the Washington, DC press corps and has multiple media markets. As a bellwether for the country, you could do a lot worse.
While this might appeal to the national Democratic Party, North Carolina should let other states duke it out. The first slot would bring power and attention, but the financial costs and voter confusion aren't worth it.2
by Christopher Cooper
Sometime today, the first mail ballots for the 2026 primary were sent out to North Carolina voters, marking the official beginning of the 2026 elections.
If this seems early, that’s because it is. North Carolina, Arkansas, and Texas hold their elections on March 3—the first in the nation. North Carolina sends out the first match of mail ballots 60 days before the election, whereas Texas and Arkansas wait until 45 and 46 days before the election, respectively. In person early voting begins in North Carolina on February 12, four days before Arkansas and five days before Texas.
No matter how you slice it, the 2026 election election begins in North Carolina. And it begins today.
