So far, 1,045,295 ballots (corrected) have been accepted as early votes through the two early voting methods (both mail-in and in-person). There is currently another 41,047 mail-in and 479 in-person ballots that have not been accepted as early votes.
Among the cumulative 991,945 in-person accepted ballots cast so far:
- 48.5 percent are from registered Democrats
- 31.2 percent are from registered Republicans
- 20.2 percent are from registered Unaffiliated voters
- 54.2 percent are from female voters
- 71.3 percent are from white voters
- 25.4 percent are from black voters
Among the 158,270 accepted in-person ballots cast on Friday, October 31:
- 47.1 percent were from registered Democrats
- 32.0 percent were from registered Republicans
- 20.7 percent were from registered unaffiliated voters
- 55.3 percent were from female voters
- 70.2 percent were from white voters
- 26.0 percent were from black voters
In comparing the same-day cumulative totals of accepted in-person ballots to the 2010 mid-term election:
- total cumulative accepted in-person ballots are running at 120 percent of the total same-day number from 2010
- registered unaffiliated voters are running at 142 percent of their total same-day number from 2010
- registered Democratic voters are running at 124 percent of their total same-day number from 2010
- registered Republican voters are running at 103 percent of their total same-day number from 2010
Of the 2014 voters who have cast accepted in-person early ballots so far, a majority of registered Republicans used the same voting method four years ago, while significant pluralities of registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters used the same voting method. What is interesting is a significant plurality of registered unaffiliated voters who did not participate in 2010's mid-term elections (whether they were not in the state, not registered, or didn't cast a ballot):
Finally, I looked at the 'regionalism' of the accepted in-person early votes cast so far in 2014. Much has been made about how the division in North Carolina partisan politics has taken on the urban vs. rural tint. So far, among the accepted in-person early ballots cast, 37 percent are coming from urban counties, 19 percent from suburban counties, and 44 percent are from rural counties. This is a typical regional breakdown within the state for a general election.
Among the three types of counties, in looking at the party registration within each area, we find the following breakdowns:
Within the urban counties of North Carolina, 54 percent the ballots are coming from registered Democrats, 26 percent from registered Republicans, and 20 percent from registered unaffiliated voters.
Within suburban counties, 43 percent are from registered Democrats, 36 percent from registered Republicans, and 21 percent from registered unaffiliated voters.
Within rural counties, 47 percent are from registered Democrats, 34 percent from registered Republicans, and 19 percent from registered unaffiliated voters.
One of the key things to consider is the division between urban and rural Democrats: urban Democrats tend to be more liberal than their rural counterparts (in fact, there is still the generation of rural North Carolina Democrats who are generally more conservative and, in all actuality, vote Republican in the voting booth).
Among just registered Democrats who have cast accepted in-person early ballots so far, urban Democrats are 41 percent and rural Democrats are 42 percent, with suburban Democrats only 17 percent.
With today (Saturday, November 1) being the last day of the in-person early voting period, we will see if we can reach the 1 million mark in terms of accepted in-person early votes. The weather may play some influence, especially in the western mountains that tend to be more Republican in nature.
More analysis will be posted later today and on Sunday about the final numbers posted for accepted, in-person early balloting.