One Way of Understanding How a Political Asteroid Hit NC Politics

By Michael Bitzer

To say that 2024 has had more than its fair share of political earthquakes is an understatement: two assassination attempts of a presidential candidate alone would garner that designation. But then there's the first presidential debate, the July 21 reshuffle of the Democratic presidential ticket, and the unreal amount of money flowing into just the presidential campaign alone.

There are political earthquakes, and then there are political asteroids. 

The asteroid of 2024's campaign hit yesterday (Thursday, Sept. 19) in the form of a CNN report detailing allegations against North Carolina's Republican lieutenant governor, and gubernatorial candidate, Mark Robinson.

So What Might NC's 2024 Electorate Look Like?

By Michael Bitzer

As I'm teaching U.S. Campaigns & Elections this semester, I always try to relate my research interests into material for class, and this fall's class is no exception.

Recently, a student asked the great question for 2024: "what will NC's electorate look like this November?"

And I said, "well, I wish I knew--as does every campaign strategist and candidate. But here's what we know, based on 2020's electorate and where we are now in the 2024 voter pool."

So I thought I would share that information beyond the folks in the class. A warning: a lot of data is coming your way, so be prepared to swim in the deep end of the pool.

First, a comparison of what 2020's voter registration pool was like (those registered and who could show up to vote) to the 2020 actual electorate (those who did showed up to cast a ballot).