So Is It a Mid-Term Year or Something Else in North Carolina?

After three days of absentee one-stop voting (in other words, in-person early voting) so far, we have an interesting trend developing in North Carolina.

So far, there have been 388,817 absentee in-person ballots cast and accepted as votes for the November 6th election.

In comparing that total on day three of 2018's early voting (which is one more day than either 2010's mid-term or 2016's presidential, and eight days more than the 2014 mid-term election), there's an interesting comparison--and remember, 2018 is a 'blue-moon' election with no major state-wide race (such as U.S. Senate or governor, other than a state supreme court election):

NC's First Day of "Early Voting" (Even Though We've Been Voting for a Few Weeks Now)

Wednesday, October 17th was the first day of what many refer to as North Carolina's 'early voting,' even though voters have been requesting and returning ballots for some time now through the mail.

The state's start of absentee onestop ballots, sometimes referred to as 'in-person early voting,' began with a significant run at the numbers. The following shows some comparative analysis for the beginning of a popular method of voters casting ballots. This data comes from the North Carolina State Board of Elections & Ethics Enforcement and can be found here.

First, a note on comparing this year's in-person 'early votes' to other mid-term election years: 2010 had a window of 17 days, while 2014 had a window of only 10 days. This year's window of 18 days will therefore be much different in the past, but the comparison may be helpful to show some trends.

The overall totals of NC's absentee ballots, both for mail and in-person:

Going into This Week's In-Person Absentee Voting & "T Minus 3 Weeks & Counting" Until Election Day 2018

As North Carolina gets ready to start casting absentee one-stop (that is, in-person no excuse absentee voting) and we hit the three weeks mark until Election Day 2018, here is where things stand with the state's absentee by mail ballots.

Total requested absentee mail ballots, through 10-14-18 (as of 10-15-18): 68,940

Total sent absentee mail ballots: 67,129 (97.3 percent of those requested)

Total returned and accepted absentee mail ballots: 10,279 (14.9 percent of those requested)

Here are the party registration data for requested, sent, and accepted mail ballots:

NC Absentee Mail Ballots as of 10-13-18

For NC's mail absentee ballots, through Friday, Oct. 12 (posted as of 10-13-18):

So far, the number of requested absentee mail ballots stands at 65,949, with 64,715 sent (98.1% of requested), and 9,511 have been returned and accepted so far (14.4% of requested); by party registration for requested, sent, & accepted:

NC Mail Absentee Ballots as of 10-9-18

NC's mail absentee ballots, through Monday, Oct. 8 (data as of 10-9-18):

Requested: 48,623 Sent: 47,944 (98.6% of requested) Returned & Accepted: 4,850 (10% of requested) And by party registration for requested, sent, & accepted:

NC's Mail Ballots as of 10-4-18

Updated with new analysis of voters who didn't vote in 2014 but have requested mail absentee ballots in 2018 (see below):

The latest numbers of North Carolina absentee by mail ballot requests, sent, and returned & accepted, along with various breakdowns/analyses by party registration, gender, region, and other aspects are below--these were tweeted out at @oldnorthstpol:

Requested as of 10-3-18 (reported 10-4-18): 35,209

Sent: 34,606 (98% of requested)

Returned and Accepted: 2,962 (8.4% of requested)

NC's Mail Ballots as of 9-29-18

As of September 29, 2018, the North Carolina mail absentee ballots so far are:

Requested: 23,762

Sent: 23,364 (98 percent of requested)

Returned and Accepted: 1,444 (6.1 percent of requested)

And by party registration for all three categories:

Did Hurricane Matthew Have An Impact on 2016 Elections?

I've gotten a couple of calls from reporters regarding the question, was there any impact from Hurricane Matthew, that hit North Carolina in mid-October of 2016, to help us understand what might be in the forecast for the impact by Hurricane Florence in this year's election?

First, a key difference between Matthew and Florence: Matthew hit in mid-October (the 10th), with FEMA designating the following counties:

Florence, hitting in mid-September, lead to the designation of these counties by FEMA so far:

NC's Mail Ballots as of 9-22-18

With the end of the week, an update on where things stand regarding North Carolina's absentee by mail ballots, including requested, sent, and returned & accepted. I sent many of these charts out via Twitter @oldnorthstpol, but here are all the charts for 9-22-18 in one convenient spot for future reference:

The requested mail ballots, as of 9-22-18, total 17,225, with the following breakdown by party registration of the voter:

9/20/18 Update on NC's Mail Ballots: Votes Are Coming In

As North Carolina surveys the damage and continues to dry out from the aftermath of Hurricane Florence, voters are requesting and casting ballots already for the November 6 general election in the Old North State. Here's a review of where the numbers stand regarding absentee by mail ballots, especially by requested, sent, and accepted ballots.

As of September 19th, the number of requested ballots has hit 15,704, with the following party registration breakdown:

Normally, in this method of voting, registered Republicans tend to dominate mail-in ballots, but even in the early trends, they are third with barely a quarter of the requested ballots so far.