With the Democratic flips in South Charlotte and Mecklenburg County in a number of elections this year (for state house and county commission, in particular), concerns among Republicans have surfaced that Charlotte, and Mecklenburg County, may see no Republican-elected officials in the city's and county's future. In fact, one Republican member of the Charlotte City Council expressed concern that "We could very well be in the last days of Republicans being elected in Charlotte."
But this wasn't a 2018 sudden earthquake, but rather a set of tremors that were building since at least 2004 for the "Republican wedge" in south Charlotte.
Showing posts with label Republican. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Republican. Show all posts
Thursday, November 15, 2018
Sunday, September 23, 2018
NC's Mail Ballots as of 9-22-18
With the end of the week, an update on where things stand regarding North Carolina's absentee by mail ballots, including requested, sent, and returned & accepted. I sent many of these charts out via Twitter @oldnorthstpol, but here are all the charts for 9-22-18 in one convenient spot for future reference:
The requested mail ballots, as of 9-22-18, total 17,225, with the following breakdown by party registration of the voter:
The requested mail ballots, as of 9-22-18, total 17,225, with the following breakdown by party registration of the voter:
Saturday, March 10, 2018
Exploring Evangelicals in 2016's Election: Partisanship Divided The Flock
I found this article on "A Quiet Exodus: Why Blacks Are Leaving White Evangelical Churches" to be an interesting exploration of the controversies surrounding evangelicalism in today's political environment.
In particular, Michael Emerson, co-author of "Divided by Faith", a study that explored the racial relations within the evangelical movement, said in the article:
In particular, Michael Emerson, co-author of "Divided by Faith", a study that explored the racial relations within the evangelical movement, said in the article:
"Everything we tried is not working. ... The election itself was the single most harmful event to the whole movement of (racial) reconciliation in at least the past 30 years,” he said. “It’s about to completely break apart.”Much has been made about the support by most white evangelical voters to President Trump. In fact, one of the president's evangelical advisory board members said recently:
Sunday, January 28, 2018
Exploring Partisanship & Party Loyalty from 1952 to 2016
Much has been made about the role of partisanship in American politics: some call it "tribalism" in the sense that party loyalty drives most views and actions, especially when it comes to voting behavior at the presidential level. And while some believe that the "political independents" can save us (and point to rising numbers in polls that show "independents" are now the largest bloc of voters), the sense of party loyalty has been evident even among these 'faux' independents.
In looking at data from the American National Election Studies from 1952 to 2016, I wanted to get a better sense of how these trends--the perceived rise of independents, as well as the potential rise or decline of partisanship and party loyalty--has been recorded in presidential election years.
In looking at data from the American National Election Studies from 1952 to 2016, I wanted to get a better sense of how these trends--the perceived rise of independents, as well as the potential rise or decline of partisanship and party loyalty--has been recorded in presidential election years.
Sunday, December 31, 2017
2017's End of the Year Analysis of NC's Voter Registration Pool
As has been my want over the past few years, I'm going to present a "here's where we stand" analysis of the voter registration pool in the Old North State. While a lot of folks are making their 2018 predictions, I've decided to stay away from the mindless "here's what's going to happen" in the new year because if the past three years have taught us anything about politics, it is that punditry predictions are usually pointless.
So, with that said, North Carolina's voter registration pool ends the year with 6.8 million registered voters (active and inactive voters), a decrease of 79,000 voters (or down 1.1 percent) from the November 2016 pool. Of these 6.8 million, 39 percent are registered with the Democratic Party, 31 percent are registered unaffiliated, and 30 percent are registered Republican, with less than one percent registered Libertarian (I'll be focusing these analysis and charts on the big three registration groups). This year was a notable one in the fact that registered unaffiliated voters surpassed registered Republicans to claim the second spot in the Old North State.
So, with that said, North Carolina's voter registration pool ends the year with 6.8 million registered voters (active and inactive voters), a decrease of 79,000 voters (or down 1.1 percent) from the November 2016 pool. Of these 6.8 million, 39 percent are registered with the Democratic Party, 31 percent are registered unaffiliated, and 30 percent are registered Republican, with less than one percent registered Libertarian (I'll be focusing these analysis and charts on the big three registration groups). This year was a notable one in the fact that registered unaffiliated voters surpassed registered Republicans to claim the second spot in the Old North State.
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Nearing A Million Absentee Ballots in North Carolina's Early Voting (updated)
As we enter almost a week of in-person absentee (early) voting in North Carolina, the combination of both in-person and mail-in ballots is getting very close to one million total absentee ballots cast in the Old North State.
First, here are the numbers of both Mail-In and In-Person Ballots by party registration of the voter:
Of the voters who have submitted absentee by in-person, I looked at their registration status (if they were registered in 2012 or afterwards) and, if registered in 2012, did they vote in that general election:
Non-native born voters continue to be a dominate group of the accepted absentee in-person ballots:
Finally, the generational break-down of accepted absentee in-person ballots continues to show a majority of voters being Baby Boomers and older:
Finally, the 2016 North Carolina voter who is using mail-in absentee ballot and whether they were registered in 2012 and if so, what their voting method was, is:
First, here are the numbers of both Mail-In and In-Person Ballots by party registration of the voter:
To give some comparison of where North Carolina was four years ago in terms of cumulative absentee ballots:
Currently, this year's total is 2 percent behind where we were in 2012 (943,088 total absentee ballots were at this same day four years ago).
Of this year's total of 929,724 absentee ballots requested so far, the party registration percentages among the two types of absentee ballots are:
In breaking down the trend lines by party registration of the total absentee ballots (again, counting both mail-in requests and in-person ballots), the party registration figures show a distinct difference between this year and 2012's trend lines.
While both registered partisans are running behind (both registered Democrats and registered Republicans are nine percent behind their 2012 same day totals), registered unaffiliated voters are 28 percent ahead of where they were four years ago this same day.
Of all the ballots (both in-person and mail-in), the return status of the ballots are:
Among the accepted ballots so far:
Of the 812,328 accepted mail-in and in-person ballots, the party registration breaks down as:
Turning to the in-person absentee ballots, the total number of ballots submitted and evaluated for acceptance:
Of the ballots that have been accepted (733,270), the daily numbers for the period of this form of early voting is:
In isolating the first week of in-person absentee ballots:
In comparison to the 2012 cumulative totals, this year's in-person absentee ballots are where things stood four years ago (733,269 compared to 2012's same day total of 733,745). In terms of party registration performance, registered Republicans have met their same numbers from four years ago, while registered Democrats are down 11 percent, and registered unaffiliated voters are 30 percent ahead of where they were the same day in 2012.
In terms of daily percentage of party registration:
In terms of race within the absentee in-person voting based on party registration:
In terms of daily percentages of absentee by in-person ballots by race of the voters:
In terms of gender of voters who have cast absentee by in-person ballots, women are still at 56 percent of the ballots, with female registered Democrats being 49 percent of the female ballots:
Of the voters who have submitted absentee by in-person, I looked at their registration status (if they were registered in 2012 or afterwards) and, if registered in 2012, did they vote in that general election:
Regionally, urban counties continue to dominate the accepted absentee in-person ballots, with a slight drop from yesterday's percentage:
Non-native born voters continue to be a dominate group of the accepted absentee in-person ballots:
Finally, the generational break-down of accepted absentee in-person ballots continues to show a majority of voters being Baby Boomers and older:
UPDATE: the following graphs look at the mail-in absentee ballots so far in North Carolina. With over 196,000 mail-in ballots and over 79,000 of them returned and accepted, here are the various break-downs by party registration and other information.
The return status of the 196,000 mail-in ballots is:
The acceptance rate for overall ballots is currently 40 percent, with registered Republicans at 41 percent, registered Democrats at 43 percent, and registered unaffiliated voters at 36 percent.
Overall, registered Republicans continue to claim a plurality of this method of early voting in North Carolina:
Registered Republicans are 41 percent of mail-in ballots, with registered Democrats at 33 percent and registered unaffiliated voters at 26 percent.
However, in terms of party registration and performance, there is a significant decline in registered Republicans utilizing this voting method in comparison to 2012.
Registered Republicans are at 62 percent of where they were this same day out of the election in terms of returned and accepted ballots, whereas registered Democrats are slightly behind (98 percent) and registered unaffiliated voters are ahead (109 percent), with overall numbers being 81 percent of where they were four years ago.
Of the outstanding mail-in ballots yet to be returned:
Finally, the 2016 North Carolina voter who is using mail-in absentee ballot and whether they were registered in 2012 and if so, what their voting method was, is:
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
NC's Absentee Mail-In Ballots as of 9-28-16
North Carolina's absentee mail-in ballots continue to run ahead of where mail-in ballots stood four years ago.
A total of nearly 74,000 ballots have been requested, with registered Republican voters taking the lead in the total number of requested ballots, at 37 percent. Registered Democrats are at 35 percent of the total pool, and registered unaffiliated voters are 28 percent; registered Libertarians are less than one percent.
Among returned and accepted ballots, registered Democrats are 40 percent of those ballots, registered Republicans are 35 percent, and registered unaffiliated voters are 25 percent.
The return rate (accepted ballots by total ballots requested) show a registered Democratic voter rate of 15 percent so far, registered unaffiliated voter rate of 11 percent, registered Republican voter rate of 12 percent, and a total return rate of 13 percent.
A note: the following graph has been updated and corrected to incorporate 2012 absentee mail-in ballots that were requested not just by mail, but by fax and e-mail requests (many thanks to Dr. Michael McDonald at the US Elections Project for the review and working the numbers together). With those new comparison numbers, total accepted ballots are 113 percent of where the total number stood four years ago, with registered Democrats at 140 percent, registered unaffiliated voters at 148 percent, and registered Republicans at 81 percent.
Among those ballots requested and still not returned, the party registration breakdown is:
Among returned and accepted ballots, registered Democrats are 40 percent of those ballots, registered Republicans are 35 percent, and registered unaffiliated voters are 25 percent.
The return rate (accepted ballots by total ballots requested) show a registered Democratic voter rate of 15 percent so far, registered unaffiliated voter rate of 11 percent, registered Republican voter rate of 12 percent, and a total return rate of 13 percent.
A note: the following graph has been updated and corrected to incorporate 2012 absentee mail-in ballots that were requested not just by mail, but by fax and e-mail requests (many thanks to Dr. Michael McDonald at the US Elections Project for the review and working the numbers together). With those new comparison numbers, total accepted ballots are 113 percent of where the total number stood four years ago, with registered Democrats at 140 percent, registered unaffiliated voters at 148 percent, and registered Republicans at 81 percent.
Among those ballots requested and still not returned, the party registration breakdown is:
Friday, August 5, 2016
Analysis of NC Registered Voter Pool as of July 30, 2016
With the weekly data file from the NC State Board of Elections, 6,642,234 North Carolinians are active/inactive registered voters, as of July 30, 2016. This represents a 4.7 percent increase over the same point four years ago in the 2012 presidential election.
Some breakdowns of these 6.6 million registered North Carolina voters so far; first, the party break downs of active and inactive voters: 40 percent Democratic, 30 percent Republican, 29 percent unaffiliated, and 1 percent Libertarians. Within the party registration, the percentages of active and inactive voters for North Carolina Registered Voters are:
Next, breaking the state-wide voter registration pool into urban, suburban, and rural counties and then into party registration, one can see the Democratic tendencies of urban counties, while suburban counties are more Republican in nature than the state, as are rural counties.
However, it's important to note that 54 percent of NC registered voters are in urban counties, as defined by the Office of Management & Budget.
The other major shift occurring in North Carolina is a generational shift among the voters.
Baby Boomers (those born between 1945 and 1965) are slightly over a third of the voters, while Millennial voters (those born after 1981) are soon to be 30 percent, and most likely might equal Baby Boomers by November's general election. A key thing to remember among the Silent Generation and Baby Boomers (particularly those who are native North Carolinians): registered Democrats in these generations, especially those in rural counties, are more likely to be reliable Republican voters who simply haven't formally switched their party affiliation.
So far, 59 percent of the new voters who registered since January 1, 2016 are Millennials:
Among North Carolina voters, we tend to see a gender gap developing between women (who make up 53 percent of the pool) and men.
Millennial voters, who only 25 percent are registered with the GOP, see a disparity between men and women, but both are seemingly rejecting the Republican Party as a registration option.
Then, breaking down the party registrations by race and ethnicity indicates that the North Carolina Democratic Party (by voter registration) is officially a majority-minority party, with only 47 percent of registered Democrats being non-Hispanic/Latino white.
Finally, among North Carolina's 147,990 registered Hispanic/Latino voters (2 percent of the total state pool), the party break-downs and by generation show another troubling trend for Republicans:
I'll be tracking September's beginning data file for tracking how these numbers change.
Some breakdowns of these 6.6 million registered North Carolina voters so far; first, the party break downs of active and inactive voters: 40 percent Democratic, 30 percent Republican, 29 percent unaffiliated, and 1 percent Libertarians. Within the party registration, the percentages of active and inactive voters for North Carolina Registered Voters are:
Next, breaking the state-wide voter registration pool into urban, suburban, and rural counties and then into party registration, one can see the Democratic tendencies of urban counties, while suburban counties are more Republican in nature than the state, as are rural counties.
However, it's important to note that 54 percent of NC registered voters are in urban counties, as defined by the Office of Management & Budget.
The other major shift occurring in North Carolina is a generational shift among the voters.
Baby Boomers (those born between 1945 and 1965) are slightly over a third of the voters, while Millennial voters (those born after 1981) are soon to be 30 percent, and most likely might equal Baby Boomers by November's general election. A key thing to remember among the Silent Generation and Baby Boomers (particularly those who are native North Carolinians): registered Democrats in these generations, especially those in rural counties, are more likely to be reliable Republican voters who simply haven't formally switched their party affiliation.
So far, 59 percent of the new voters who registered since January 1, 2016 are Millennials:
Among North Carolina voters, we tend to see a gender gap developing between women (who make up 53 percent of the pool) and men.
Millennial voters, who only 25 percent are registered with the GOP, see a disparity between men and women, but both are seemingly rejecting the Republican Party as a registration option.
Finally, among North Carolina's 147,990 registered Hispanic/Latino voters (2 percent of the total state pool), the party break-downs and by generation show another troubling trend for Republicans:
I'll be tracking September's beginning data file for tracking how these numbers change.
Monday, May 16, 2016
Podcast Interview: The "Trump Effect" on Partisan Affiliation
Was interviewed on a recent WFAE The Party Line blog post on the "Trump Effect" on partisan affiliation and voting--the interview starts at 17:00 minutes into the podcast (love that it was a Prince introduction).
Friday, October 24, 2014
First Day of NC In-Person Early Voting Nets 118K
North Carolina's start to in-person early voting witnessed 118,063 voters come out to cast their ballots. In comparison to this point in 2010, with seven extra days for voters to have cast ballots and with 252,000 votes cast then, we're at 47 percent of where we were at this point in the last mid-term election.
The break-downs of early voters so far shows Democrats at their traditional numbers:
In-Person early votes cast by registered Democrats were 51 percent, registered Republicans were 29 percent, and registered unaffiliated & Libertarian voters were 20 percent.
In comparing the trend line against the 2010 in-person early voting:
As we will probably see the numbers slightly adjust over the next few days, the early indications are that registered Democrats are performing at their traditional percentage levels for in-person early voting. In just one day of in-person early voting, registered Democrats have doubled their mail-in returned and accepted ballots.
In terms of mail-in ballots, the following graphs show the trends that have been posted at this blog:
The break-downs of early voters so far shows Democrats at their traditional numbers:
In-Person early votes cast by registered Democrats were 51 percent, registered Republicans were 29 percent, and registered unaffiliated & Libertarian voters were 20 percent.
In comparing the trend line against the 2010 in-person early voting:
As we will probably see the numbers slightly adjust over the next few days, the early indications are that registered Democrats are performing at their traditional percentage levels for in-person early voting. In just one day of in-person early voting, registered Democrats have doubled their mail-in returned and accepted ballots.
In terms of mail-in ballots, the following graphs show the trends that have been posted at this blog:
Tuesday, September 30, 2014
Entering 5 Weeks Out to NC's General Election
As we enter five weeks out from the general election in North Carolina, I've assembled the usual data regarding the mail-in ballots (both those sent out/requested and those that have been returned & accepted), and have added another clarified chart to track those ballots sent out in 2010 to compare against this year's sent out absentee ballots.
First, the sent out/requested ballots: the trend for requested ballots continues to show registered Democratic strength when it comes to these traditional Republican-favored voting method.
Of the 18,186 ballots sent out so far, 41 percent are to registered Democratic voters, 35 percent to registered Republican voters, and 24 percent to registered unaffiliated voters. Women are 55 percent of the sent ballots, while white voters are 83 percent and black voters are 12 percent.
In comparing these sent ballots to 2010's mid-term election, there is an unique exception that has to be taken into account. According to legendary NC General Assembly guru Gerry Cohen, 2010 mail-in ballots were automatically sent to military and overseas voters who had voted in 2008. Between 2010 and 2014, there was a change in federal law that not longer required automatic mail-out of ballots to these folks. Thus, the 2010 numbers would be inflated compared to the 2014 numbers, unless you delineate the 'civilian' only numbers as a basis of comparison, which I do in the following graphic.
I also give the remainder of this week's comparable 2010 numbers (36-32 days out from the election) to give some idea of what was seen in 2010 for this coming week. As noted, registered Republicans have basically hit where they were this time in 2010 (88 votes ahead of 2010's date); but for Democrats, they are substantially ahead of where they were this time four years ago (2,759 votes), along with unaffiliated voters as well (1,448 votes ahead).
In terms of returned and accepted mail-in ballots (thus, actual votes), we won't know the vote totals so far, but we do know who sent them in:
Among the 3,146 ballots (17% of the requested ballots have been returned):
First, the sent out/requested ballots: the trend for requested ballots continues to show registered Democratic strength when it comes to these traditional Republican-favored voting method.
Of the 18,186 ballots sent out so far, 41 percent are to registered Democratic voters, 35 percent to registered Republican voters, and 24 percent to registered unaffiliated voters. Women are 55 percent of the sent ballots, while white voters are 83 percent and black voters are 12 percent.
In comparing these sent ballots to 2010's mid-term election, there is an unique exception that has to be taken into account. According to legendary NC General Assembly guru Gerry Cohen, 2010 mail-in ballots were automatically sent to military and overseas voters who had voted in 2008. Between 2010 and 2014, there was a change in federal law that not longer required automatic mail-out of ballots to these folks. Thus, the 2010 numbers would be inflated compared to the 2014 numbers, unless you delineate the 'civilian' only numbers as a basis of comparison, which I do in the following graphic.
I also give the remainder of this week's comparable 2010 numbers (36-32 days out from the election) to give some idea of what was seen in 2010 for this coming week. As noted, registered Republicans have basically hit where they were this time in 2010 (88 votes ahead of 2010's date); but for Democrats, they are substantially ahead of where they were this time four years ago (2,759 votes), along with unaffiliated voters as well (1,448 votes ahead).
In terms of returned and accepted mail-in ballots (thus, actual votes), we won't know the vote totals so far, but we do know who sent them in:
Among the 3,146 ballots (17% of the requested ballots have been returned):
- 45 percent are from registered Democrats
- 35 percent are from registered Republicans
- 20 percent are from registered unaffiliated voters
- 53 percent from women
- 46 percent from men
- 81 percent from white voters
- 14 percent from black voters
- 5 percent from 'other' racial-category voters
In comparing the returned & accepted ballots from this year against the 2010 comparable numbers (again, based on the days out from Election Day):
All categories of registered voters are substantially ahead of their 2010 numbers, but again, it is the Democratic registered voters who are substantially ahead of their own 2010 numbers and ahead of Republican-registered voters, who were leading at this point in 2010.
It's been now a week now, and the trends continue in mail-in ballots that we have been seeing, which leads me to start to be more convinced that the Democratic ground-game has seen a substantial amount of energy and enthusiasm, whether done through operations like the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's focus to organize on the ground or through the sheer enthusiasm by average Democratic voters.
As of this date, with five weeks to go to the big day, this trend is too noticeable not to be taken seriously by all campaigns.
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