Some Personal Thoughts

A preface to this post: although these words, thoughts, and experiences are written by Michael Bitzer, the other members of the ONSP team support and agree with the sentiments expressed in this statement. This is a tough time in American politics, and it is going to take clear eyes to find a better way forward. As Political Scientists, we are committed to working towards a better functioning democracy. We can do better.

By Michael Bitzer

I write this on behalf of myself, but after consultation, the blog's fellow contributors have indicated their support for the following. We make clear, however, that we do so in our personal capacities and do not speak for our respective institutions.

I posted the following on Twitter, because I felt, at the end of this very long and tragic week, I needed to try and express my thoughts as simply and directly as I could. It’s long and is not intended to be a scholarly piece, but rather a summation of personal beliefs and experiences. I was intentional in crafting the piece's structure. I want the words to speak for themselves. It will offend some. It will give hope to others. I hope, for most, it will make you think. 

For me, it’s the only way that I can truly make sense of what we are experiencing. This is how I am feeling, as someone who has read, studied, thought, and ultimately tried to convey what it means to be an American, both historically and politically, for literally the past thirty years. And after this week’s events, we need to each ask ourselves something. And thus, the beginning of this thread. 

A question for every American: 

Do you support fascism or do you support freedom? 

And yes, it's that simple. 

If you can't answer that question, or pick the side that represents America and American values, then you've decided.

It is simply time to take account. 

A First Look at 2020's Election Turnout: GOP & Suburban Voters Dominated

By Michael Bitzer

Thursday, January 7 at 12:52 PM: I had written this blog post yesterday morning, on January 6, thinking that I would get it done before the joint Congressional session for the Electoral Count began, watch the proceedings unfold, and return to this piece this morning for one last glance and editing. Here's what I had as an original opening:

It's been an interesting start to the new year, or what some might describe (with everything going on) as '2020 version 2.1.'

Little did I realize what would transpire during the Electoral Count would fundamentally shake me to my core--as both a political scientist and historian and as an American citizen. But 24 hours later, with the physical illness feeling gone and in its place, a smoldering sense of professional and personal rage, I returned back to this blog piece to see if I had the stomach to hit "Publish" in the midst of everything else going on. 

And I paused. Staring at the blinking cursor. 

But then I realized: after everything that transpired, Congress went on its business last night. They reconvened after the insurrection had been removed from the Capitol, even amidst the destruction, disheveled desks and lecterns, and likely lingering tear gas. They proceeded to do their job, their constitutional duty and the responsibility they hold as elected officials under their oath of office. 

And so should I, although nowhere near the importance that they had. 

So, I posit the above as it may be a bit 'jarring' to the reader to then dive into my analysis of voter turnout rates and electoral composition. But as such, even with the continued constitutional crisis playing out as I type this sentence (and I realize that some may feel I am a bit hyperbolic in my word choices--trust me when I say, I am not), we must proceed on. 

Therefore, taking the above original opening with a grain of salt following the past 24 hours, here's the analysis.

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But for those of us who are data geeks, the end of 2020 finally brought some welcomed news. North Carolina's voter history data file is now updated with 5.5 million records from the 2020 general election, giving us the definitive insight into who showed up last November in the record breaking election. 

For this post, I'll be looking at the turnout rates for various groups, based on the December 5, 2020 voter registration data file (allowing some counties to finalize voter registrations, but isolating those few voters who registered after early voting was completed). Out of the 7.4 million registered voters, 5.5 million cast a ballot, making North Carolina history with a 75 percent turnout rate in a presidential year in the past fifty years.

"A Sea of Red with a Bright Blue Dot Right in the Middle": The Politics of Western North Carolina

Dr. Chris Cooper of Western Carolina University talks with Spectrum News 1's "Capital Tonight" about the politics of Western North Carolina, which encapsulates "a real mix of worlds" including the "ripsters," the rural hipsters, the sense of being closer to other states' capitals than their own, and what we might expect from the youngest U.S. Representative from the mountain's 11th Congressional District.

"North Carolina Mountain Counties." Image courtesy of the
North Carolina Department of Public Instruction.

 

Washington Post "Made by History" Blog Piece: Even if Georgia turns blue, North Carolina may not follow

by Michael Bitzer

One of the first Catawba graduates I had the pleasure of working with when I arrived at the college was Virginia Summey, who has since received her Ph.D. in history and teaches at UNC-Greensboro. She and I co-authored a piece that looks at North Carolina's 'battleground' status and what the state's modern political history might tell us, especially in relationship to the newcomer battleground state of Georgia.

You can access the piece at the Washington Post's "Made by History" blog. 

County Commissions in North Carolina: A Brief Review of Trends in Partisanship, Gender & Race

by Chris Cooper

It surprisingly difficult to keep track of all of the elections in North Carolina. Sure, most interested citizens know that Roy Cooper and Thom Tillis were re-elected. Many are probably aware that the Republicans maintained majorities in the General Assembly and some (the type of folks who read this blog) may even be aware of the results of the Council of State and the statewide judicial races. Unless you’re buried deep in the weeds, however, you’re unlikely to know much about what happened in the County Commission races outside of perhaps your home county.

 

The Fate of Appointed Senators

By Charles S. Bullock, III

The runoffs for Georgia’s two Senate seats are attracting national and even international attention since, for the first time in history, the outcome of a delayed selection process will determine which party controls that chamber.  Georgians are selecting two senators because of a partial term that must be filled.  

This is not the first time that the Peach State has chosen a senator to complete a term.  Since the 17th Amendment shifted senator selection from the state legislature to a vote by the public, five previous midterm vacancies have occurred beginning with Senator Augustus Bacon’s death in 1914.

How a Senate vacancy gets filled varies among states.  In Georgia, the governor appoints a fill-in who serves until the next regularly scheduled election.  

Our Post-Election 2020 Analysis Vlog

Now that the "final" calls on various states have been made (but some NC races are still too close to call), the four of us gathered for our post-Election 2020 vlog where we breakdown some key takeaways and preliminary insights, and what we want to study some more about this consequential campaign season. 

Check us out on Youtube:

Or, if you want to listen as a podcast, check us out on SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/michael-bitzer-622617495/old-north-state-politics-post-election-2020-podcast 

5 Things I Think I Know About the 2020 Election in North Carolina

By Chris Cooper

The election is over. Well, mostly. Sure, the President hasn’t conceded, we will have recounts for a variety of offices in North Carolina, there might be some litigation (it is North Carolina after all), and we don’t have individual level data on who voted (for that, we have to wait for the holy grail of North Carolina politics, The Voter History File, to be updated). Despite these significant limitations, there are a few conclusions that I feel (fairly) safe to make at this admittedly premature stage.

Five Take-aways from North Carolina's 2020 Same Day Registrations

By Chris Cooper

Note: This originally posted on November 2, 2020. 4,727 additional SDRs were processed and included in the November 3 data update. I updated the graph and data in number 1 below to account for the new data. The other points stayed constant. 

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North Carolina citizens who are not registered to vote can complete "same day registration" throughout the early voting period (which ran from Oct 15-Oct 31 this year). Normally I'd throw a strained metaphor and a throat-clearing lead to try to hook you in, but given the volume of election coverage and everyone's declining patience, I'll just get to it. Here are five few quick take-aways from patterns in this year's same day registration data.   

2020's Election Is All But Done...Except for Tuesday's Voting and Counting

By Michael Bitzer

The nation, and North Carolina, have finally arrived at this point: just two days before the final votes are cast in Election 2020, and then the counting begins on what is shaping up as a historic election, by pretty much any standard.

The level of early voting--with estimates of over 90 million ballots cast nation-wide before Tuesday, November 3--is certainly one for the record books, and especially in North Carolina's period of early voting, made up of both absentee by mail and absentee onestop, which most refer to as 'early voting in-person.' 

According to the U.S. Election Project, as of Sunday, Nov. 1., two-thirds of all the votes cast in 2016 have been already submitted in the 2020 election. 

In North Carolina, 2020's early ballots are 95 percent of all the votes cast in 2016, which equates to nearly 62 percent of the 7.3 million registered voters having already voted as we head into Tuesday's general election. It would only take another 238,000 voters to match 2016's total ballots cast; that 238,000 would be just 3 percent of the current 7.3 million, equating to 65 percent voter turnout. 

If past presidential election years are any indication, we should see registered voter turnout at least 69 percent:

In a realistic scenario, North Carolina could be looking at a low to mid-70 percent turnout rate when the polls close Tuesday night; meaning, anywhere from a potential 725,000 to 943,000 voters could show up on November 3, and that would give the state either a 72 or 75 percent registered voter turnout rate this year. 

So, here are a number of data points about what we know about NC's early votes, who has cast ballots so far, and what we should expect come Tuesday's final voting. Be prepared for a deep data dive into the numbers. 

How many North Carolinians have early voted?