Monday, November 2, 2020

Five Take-aways from North Carolina's 2020 Same Day Registrations

By Chris Cooper

Note: This originally posted on November 2, 2020. 4,727 additional SDRs were processed and included in the November 3 data update. I updated the graph and data in number 1 below to account for the new data. The other points stayed constant. 

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North Carolina citizens who are not registered to vote can complete "same day registration" throughout the early voting period (which ran from Oct 15-Oct 31 this year). Normally I'd throw a strained metaphor and a throat-clearing lead to try to hook you in, but given the volume of election coverage and everyone's declining patience, I'll just get to it. Here are five few quick take-aways from patterns in this year's same day registration data.   

1. Despite massive increases in absentee and one-stop voting, the number of same day registrations has stayed relatively constant. In 2016, voters completed 100,195 same day registrations; 109,383 have been completed thus far in 2020 (an increase of about 9.1%; compared to a ~45% increase in pre election day voting). A few more SDRs will likely be added to the file over the next few days, but suffice it to say, whatever factors lead to the massive increase in early voting did not translate to a similar increase in same day registration.


 2. Unaffiliated voters are the fastest growing group in North Carolina politics--and this increase is clear in both new registrations and party switching. The one place where people seem to be sticking with the two major parties, however, is in same day registration. Unaffiliated same day registrations trailed both Democratic and Republican same day registrations in 2020 (28% of same day registrants registered as Unaffiliated). This trend is similar to 2016 where Unaffiliated same day registrations trailed registration for both major political parties (29.5% of same day registrants). 

3. Democrats lead Republicans this year in new registrations in North Carolina, but same day registration bucks this trend with Republicans making up 37% of same day registrants v. 32% of SDRs who registered as Democrats. This reverses (although only slightly) the data from 2016 which showed Democrats with a slight lead over Republicans (35% to 34%) in same day registration.

4. African Americans made up 20% of same day registrants in 2020, compared to whites who made up 43% of same day registrants. This is down from 2016 for both races (22% of same day registrants in 2016 identified as black and 56% identified as white). The reason for this dual decrease is not an increase in Indian American, Asian, or other races, but rather a massive increase in "undesignated" category. In 2016, 15% of same day registrants declined to indicate their race; in 2020 that number doubled to 30%. Michael Bitzer and I wrote about this "none of the above" problem a few months ago, but the increase is particularly striking in the same day registration data. While this may seem like a small administrative detail, if this trend continues, it could have serious effects on our understanding of voting rights issues, and on our ability to see whether various electoral rules affect certain races more than others. 

It is also striking how much the use of the "undesignated" category varies by county--suggesting that this massive increase may be explained as much by administrative variation across the counties as by changes in racial identity. Consider this table below, which lists the 10 counties with the highest percent of same day registrants who are characterized as undesignated and the 10 counties with the lowest percentages. This will be a trend to continue to watch after the election.

Counties w/ Highest % Undesignated

Counties with Lowest % Undesignated

County

Percent Undesignated

County

Percent Undesignated

AVERY

96.55

BLADEN

3.98

ALLEGHANY

89.22

PERQUIMANS

3.80

ANSON

96.75

HERTFORD

3.14

YANCEY

83.14

LINCOLN

3.04

BRUNSWICK

83.31

EDGECOMBE

2.65

RUTHERFORD

78.59

PAMLICO

2.33

WAKE

75.82

CLAY

2.22

MITCHELL

73.73

CAMDEN

1.04

NEW HANOVER

64.67

YADKIN

0.67

WILKES

64.67

MCDOWELL

0.60


5. Not surprisingly, same day registrants tend to be younger than the electorate as a whole. As you can see from the graph below, same day registrants are most likely to be coming of age to vote in their first Presidential election. At the same time, there are a considerable number of same day registrants who are later in the life cycle. The average age of SDRs in 2020 is 40--almost identical to the average age in 2016. 

Wrapping Up: Same day registrants are a comparatively small proportion of the overall electorate, but nonetheless represent a group worth watching. In addition to having short-term implications for the 2020 election, they will help shape the electorate for years to come. 

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Dr. Chris Cooper is the Madison Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Public Affairs at Western Carolina University. He tweets at @chriscooperwcu.