Awaiting Wednesday's Numbers

With the weekend and the holiday on Monday, the numbers for North Carolina's mail-in absentee ballots have moved slowly, but we should expect a fairly large increase in the numbers come Wednesday following processing today.

Today's numbers show 45,216 requested ballots (non-duplicate cases), with the following breakdowns:

• Ballots sent out to registered Republican voters: 39 percent
• registered Democratic voters: 37 percent
• registered unaffiliated & Libertarian voters: 24 percent
• Women: 57 percent
• Men: 43 percent
• Whites: 83 percent
• Blacks: 12 percent

Among those 9,083 ballots returned and accepted for the November 4 election: 

• from registered Democratic voters: 41.9 percent
• registered Republican voters: 36.4 percent
• registered unaffiliated & Libertarian voters: 21.6 percent
• Females: 53.9 percent
• Males: 45.3 percent
• Whites: 82.3 percent
• Blacks: 13.1 percent

The percentage increases over the same-day totals from 2010 for the three major party registration classifications are:

Back & Forth By Republicans & Democrats in NC's Mail-In Balloting

With some additional numbers over the weekend, the race towards November 4 has drawn closer among the two major parties in terms of requested mail-in ballots, but one party still commands in returned and accepted ballots so far.

First, a clarification: after conversations with Nate Cohn of the New York Times' The Upshot, a further refining of the data from the North Carolina State Board of Elections is going to be done from now until Election Day. The data contained entries for voters who both requested a mail-in ballot and returned it, but in two separate and duplicate records for the same voter. As of this morning, I scrubbed the data when loaded into SPSS for the duplicate records and filtered them out. Therefore, you may see some slight 'drops' in the numbers in comparison to previous posts on NC's mail-in absentee ballots (for example, the total of duplicated records was 710 out of 42,940 in today's data, so we're working with a baseline of 42,230 requested ballots).

Of these 42,230 requested ballots that have been sent out, registered Republicans have taken a slight lead, with 38.1 percent to registered Democrats at 37.9 percent and registered unaffiliated voters at 23.7 percent.

While Republicans may cheer this new found lead, historically they had a much more substantial lead over Democrats and unaffiliated voters, such as with the column bar graphs from 2010 in the above graphic show.

Among the requested ballots, 56.6 percent come from female voters while white voters are 82.4 percent and black voters are 12.3 percent. 

And while Republicans can claim the lead in requested ballots, Democrats can claim a continuing lead in returned and accepted ballots.

Of the 8,512 returned ballots that have been accepted, registered Democrats are 42.3 percent to registered Republicans at 36.1 percent, with unaffiliated voters at 21.4 percent.  Females are 53.8 percent and while voters are 82.1 percent and black voters are 13.3 percent.

Finally, in looking at how this year's mail-in absentee voters participated in the 2010 election, a significant majority of the voters did not use mail-in absentee voting as their method of participation (or lack thereof) in 2010.

10-12 Update on NC Mail-in Absentee Ballots

The third weekend prior to Election Day means things are starting to heat up when it comes to voter mobilization and ground-game activities, and we starting to see the numbers tighten up within the requested ballots for North Carolina's mail-in absentee ballots.

Through Saturday (10-11), we have crossed the 40,000 mark in terms of mail-in absentee ballots: on Friday, we saw the total reach 40,682 (a 7 percent increase from the day before) and on Saturday, it was 41,755 (a 3 percent increase).

As of Saturday, the number of requested mail-in ballots coming from registered Democrats were 15,905, making them 38 percent of the requested mail-in ballots, while registered Republicans were 15,828, or 37.9 percent. Unaffiliated voters were 9,911, or 23.7 percent of the requests.

White voters are 82 percent, with black voters at 12 percent of the requested mail-in ballots.  Women are 56.5 percent, while men are 42.4 percent.

Of these 40,000 plus mail-in ballot requests, 20 percent, or 8,517 ballots, have been returned and accepted as votes for the November 4 election. We certainly don't know what these votes are in terms of various contests, but registered Democrats continue their significant lead in returned and accepted ballots.

Among these registered voters who have returned their ballots and accepted as votes, 42 percent are from registered Democrats, slightly down from their trend of 43-44 percent over the past few weeks. Registered Republicans are 36 percent of the returned & accepted ballots, which they have held over the past few days.  Registered unaffiliated voters are 21 percent.

Women continue at 54 percent of returned and accepted ballots, while white voters are 82 percent and black voters are 13 percent.

In comparing this year's cumulative numbers of accepted ballots, Democrats continue their significant numbers over four years ago in the last mid-term election (72 percent over their 2010 numbers at this point).  Unaffiliated voters are also significantly ahead of their 2010 day-to-day comparison numbers, up 55 percent. Republican voters are at the same number from 2010's same day-to-day numbers, only up 1 percent.

Finally, looking at how these voters who have requested mail-in ballots for this year's election, we see another distinct pattern regarding this year's voters so far, with only 20 percent of this year's mail-in voters having used the same method in 2010.

Of this year's voters, 41 percent did not vote in 2010, meaning that they either didn't cast ballots in the last mid-term election or were not in the state four years ago.

New Post at WFAE's The Party Line

Have a new blog post reflecting on this week's two 'debates' for the U.S. Senate contest at WFAE's The Party Line.

Good News for GOP, as well as "You Can Never Have Enough Bar Graphs"

As we near the end of the week in terms of the data on North Carolina's mail-in absentee balloting, there's some good news for Republicans in their quest to catch up to the surprising performance by registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters.

Among the 37,881 requests for ballots through yesterday (10-9), requests from registered Republican voters now stands at 37 percent, while the requests from registered Democrats dropped to 39 percent. Unaffiliated voters requesting mail-in ballots stood at 24 percent.

You can really tell the difference in the arc of the top graphic (above) where the GOP red-line is catching up to the blue line of Democrats.  Among these requested ballots so far:

• Women are still 56 percent of the requested ballots to 43 percent for men.
• White voters are 82 percent of the requested ballots to 12 percent for black voters.

Even with this catch-up by GOP registered voters, Democrats continue their pace at returning and having their ballots accepted.

Among the ballots counted as votes for November 4's election:

• 43 percent are from registered Democrats
• 36 percent from registered Republicans
• 22 percent from registered unaffiliated voters
• 54 percent from female voters
• 45 percent from male voters
• 82 percent from white voters
• 13 percent from black voters

And for the category of "You Can Never Have Enough Bar Graphs" for the end of the week: in comparing the percentage increase in this year's numbers from the last mid-term election in 2010, Democrats and unaffiliated voters are substantial ahead of their day-to-day comparisons while Republicans had been exceeding but, in the past few days, slightly dropped, below their 2010 comparable numbers. 

In addition, I looked at the 2014 voters who have requested mail-in absentee ballots and compared it to their voting method in 2010's election:

While the "enthusiasm" attention has squarely been on Republican voters, these graphs contend that in North Carolina, an organized campaign (whether by a national or candidate's organization) is in full swing for all party registered voters, but notably for Democrats, in terms of those who didn't vote in 2010 and who have voted this year via mail-in balloting. 

Update on NC's Mail-in Balloting

The trends continue apace, so here's a quick update on the latest numbers for requests and returned/accepted ballots in North Carolina's 2014 general election:

So far, 33,684 ballots have been requested and sent out, with 40.6 percent going to registered Democrats, 37 percent to registered Republicans, and 24 percent to registered unaffiliated voters. Women are 56 percent of the requested ballots, and whites continue to be 83 percent and black voters are 13 percent.

Among the 6,617 ballots that have been returned and accepted as legal votes for the general election (return rate of 20 percent so far):

• registered Democrats are 43 percent
• registered Republicans are 36 percent
• registered unaffiliated voters are 21 percent
• Women are 54 percent
• White voters are 82 percent
• Black voters are 13 percent

In terms of the trend of returned & accepted ballots, the gap between registered Democrats and Republicans have continued over the past week, along with the significant rise over the 2010 numbers at the same period from Election Day.

Looking Back at Round 2 for Hagan-Tillis & Thursday's Debate

Had the opportunity to join Frank Stasio on WUNC's "The State of Things" talking about the second debate between Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis and what might be expected in Thursday's final debate between Tillis, Hagan and Libertarian Sean Haugh.

Diving Deeper into the Mail-In Data Pool

A question has been raised about this year's absentee mail-in voters and what they did in the last mid-term elections.  Courtesy of data files from the North Carolina Board of Elections, I was able to pair up and match voter records of those folks who have voted so far by mail in 2014 with information on whether they voted or not in 2010.

In a pie chart, here's the data:

Of the 30,000 requested mail-in ballots sent out so far, 22 percent are going to voters who used the same voting method in 2010.  Another 22 percent have gone to voters who showed up early to vote in person, while another 16 percent have requested ballots this year and who voted on election day in 2010.

A plurality--40 percent--did not vote in 2010's election but have requested mail-in ballots for this year's election.

The Trend Is Broken--At Least On One Level

In at least one area of North Carolina's mail-in absentee ballots for the 2014 General Election, things have shifted from Democratic dominance to a GOP advantage, at least for the time being.

Among the 31,341 requested mail-in ballots so far, yesterday's requests (10/7) saw registered Republicans take a 231 lead over registered Democratic requested ballots, giving a daily percentage breakdown of 41 percent Republican, 35 percent Democratic, and 24 percent unaffiliated. With the exception of a few days over the past two weeks, requests from registered Democrats have been leading the daily-totals.  With this shift (and it will be important to continue to watch and see if Republicans continue their advantage now and can catch-up in cumulative total requested ballots), we could start to see a possible shift back to the traditional numbers when it comes to mail-in absentee balloting.

With this aspect, the cumulative requested ballots from registered Republicans has cut into the Democrat's lead, as noted in the below graph:

It is still interesting that among all three voter registration categories--Democratic, Republican and unaffiliated--we see significant numbers ahead of the totals from 2010's general election.

In terms of specific cumulative numbers:

The trends from the past several days, excluding the partisan registration affiliation, continue to hold: women are 56 percent of the requests to 43 percent for men; white voters are 82 percent to 12 percent by black voters.  Registered Democrats slipped to 40 percent of the cumulative total, while registered Republicans are at 36 percent and unaffiliated voters are at 24 percent.

Among the ballots returned and accepted as votes so far, the trends have continued as in the past few days:

Among the 5,932 returned and accepted ballots:

• 44 percent are from registered Democrats
• 35 percent are from registered Republicans
• 21 percent are from registered unaffiliated voters
• 53 percent are from female voters
• 82 percent are from white voters
• 14 percent are from black voters

If we start to see the trend of requested GOP ballots catch up and surpass Democratic requests, it may indicate that the GOP mobilization effort may be picking up speed. But to see GOP requests return to their historic advantage, with less than a month to go before Election Day, is highly unlikely.  

Something Strange This Way Comes

In addition to preparing today's data on mail-in absentee ballots, I was asked to look back at the past few election cycles and see what the trends and numbers were like for mail-in absentee ballots, and found that this year's election may portend that indeed 'something strange this way comes.'

First, the requested mail-in ballots continue at their usual pace, with requests from registered Democrats leading the pack:

Of the requested ballots so far:

• 41 percent from registered Democrats
• 36 percent from registered Republicans
• 24 percent from registered unaffiliated voters
• 56 percent from women
• 82 percent from white voters
• 13 percent from black voters

Among party affiliation, Democrats dropped slightly over the past trend lines, while Republicans inched up in their overall percentages.

Among accepted ballots returned so far:

Returned and accepted ballots are running at 44 percent from registered Democrats, 36 percent from registered Republicans, and 21 percent from registered unaffiliated voters.  White voters are 82 percent of returned and accepted ballots, with 14 percent from black voters. Females are 53 percent to 46 percent for men.

In the "Something Strange This Way Comes" analysis part of today's posting, I looked back at just mail-in ballots that were accepted in the 2006 through 2012 election cycles:

It has traditionally been the case that registered Republicans would make up the plurality of mail-in ballots (which ranged from a little over 34,000 in 2006 to 226,812 in 2008): from a low of 44 percent in 2006 to a high of 54 percent in 2008.  

This year, the composition of Republican registered voters is at 36 percent, with registered Democrats near at their 2006 high--but what is really surprising is that unaffiliated voters are at 24 percent of the returned and accepted ballots so far, which is the highest they have been in the past 4 elections.  While the growth of unaffiliated voters is well documented, their participation in mid-term elections is well known.  Perhaps with their steady growth over the past few election cycles in this one area of balloting, their interest and participation may be something to continue to watch for both parties.  

And if this trend holds, we could be in for "something strange this way comes" in this year's election with the early indicators of mail-in absentee balloting.