America's Politics: Polarized Politics? Or Sorted? Or Both?

When discussing American politics nowadays, it's hard to get a word in edgewise before the topic of "polarization" rears its head and becomes the dominant buzzword of the conversation.  In fact, in a recent "Charlotte Talks" on WFAE, the topic of polarization became the center point of discussion about this year's mid-term elections. 

We look at the U.S. Congress and see an institution, in both the U.S. House and Senate, where the parties are further apart then they were right after the end of Reconstruction.  In fact, we’re nearing the end of any known moderates in the Congress who reach across the political aisle to the opposition; if they do, they are endangered of being ‘primaried’ by members further to the right or left of themselves.  

We see voters who self-identify with one party or the other vote for their party’s candidates over 90% of the time, with the era of the split-ticket voter now nearing its end.  In fact, strong partisans are the ones most likely interested in following political campaigns, while those voters who self-identify as independent aren’t really all that interested in campaigns.  

Commentators contend that the edges of the two parties, the “wings” of both the GOP and Democratic parties, have taken over the discussion and debate, with no real sense of compromise within this era of partisan conflict.  

Political scientists have gotten into the debate, with two camps firmly entrenched into whether America is polarized: some say it’s not polarization, but rather “political sorting” that has made it look like we’re polarized, and that there is indeed a political center to American politics.  Another camp argues sorting doesn’t explain it all, and that yes, we are indeed polarized against one another due to party loyalty to the political camps we belong to. 

Enter into this continuing debate a recent report by the Pew Research Center that has sent both sides of the debate into critical analysis of either “ah-ha, see” or “that’s not what is truly happening.”  

Pew’s report on polarization showed that the median Democrat and Republican are more ideologically divided than in the past, and that the edges of the ideological spectrum have been filled with “consistently minded” individuals that has grown over time, while the “moderately mixed middle” has dropped.  

In 1994, the distribution of responses to the Pew’s scale of political values was pretty much a bell curve diagram; now, in 2014, that bell curve has flattened in the middle, while rising on the ends.  

What Pew determines is that Republicans have not only shifted to the right, while Democrats have shifted to the left, but that the ‘consistent’ sides of the political aisle look at each with disfavor, thereby increasing the polarization within our political landscape.

Those on both sides of the polarization debate have taken the Pew findings to task; for example, Norm Ornstein, a noted analyst of Congress, argues that it’s not both parties that have moved into their respective corners, but rather the polarization is asymmetrical, with Republicans moving much further than Democrats have.

Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University, argues that the racial divide between the parties, along with the fact that the political center has shrunk and the poles at either end of the political spectrum have grown, leads one to believe that polarization is at the heart of the matter.  

On the other hand, political scientist Matthew Dickinson contends most observers of Pew’s report only scratched the surface, and that if they had gone deeper, they would have discovered that “majority [of respondents] do not have uniformly conservative or liberal views. Most do not see either party as a threat to the nation. And more believe their representatives in government should meet halfway to resolve contentious disputes rather than hold out for more of what they want.”

As Dickinson contends, Americans have ‘sorted’ themselves into their respective political camps, so that more liberals consider themselves Democrats and more conservatives consider themselves Republicans.  But that there’s still a viable middle that wants to see both parties work together.  

So, are we sorted or are we polarized?  

First, look at how the electorate views itself. Using the 2012 National American Election Study (ANES), we can break down the electorate into 7 general categories, ranging from “strong Democrat” to “independent” to “strong Republican.”  

Voters have distributed themselves along the partisan spectrum in what appears to be an upside-down bell curve, with the “strong partisans” at either end making up sizeable segments of the electorate, with 14% of pure independents in the middle.

And while the “independent-Republicans” and “independent-Democrats” could be combined with their pure independent brethren to make up a sizable middle, those independent-partisans vote at nearly the same levels as their strong partisans when it comes to casting ballots for their party’s candidates.

So, less than 15% of the 2012 electorate identify themselves as not only open to voting for either party, but are the most consistent over time in switching their votes back and forth (in 2012, they broke for Obama 54-46%).  

So, if voters have indeed ‘sorted’ themselves into partisan preferences, are they ideologically more cohesive in defining themselves as pure partisans or not?

In other words, if you ask someone who is “extremely conservative” or “extremely liberal” or even “moderate/middle of the road,” where would they classify themselves in terms of party affiliation, especially when it comes to the ‘strong partisans’ versus the pure independent?

We can find out that answer from the 2012 ANES data as well.

Note: Not Very Strong & Lean-Independent Partisans are not included in this analysis.

Both extremely liberal and extremely conservative respondents share something in common: the vast majority consider themselves strong partisans.  In fact, among those who simply consider themselves either liberal or conservative, significant numbers (47% for conservatives and nearly 60% for liberals) identify themselves as strong partisans in what we would expect (that is, liberals are strong Democrats while conservatives are strong Republicans).  

While there appears to be some voters who are extremely liberal and are strong Republicans and others who are extremely conservative but are strong Democrats, it would appear that the ideologically driven amongst us have indeed sorted themselves into the respective political camps as strong partisans.

In fact, one could argue that over the past forty years, an ideological “sorting” has come about, due to strong ideologues finding a home within the political parties.

The data comes from the yearly American National Election Studies survey of respondents in the years 1972-2012 (no data is available from 2006, 2008, or 2010). 

The above gif shows three columns of responses from 1972 to 2012:

• blue, which indicates the percentage of those who identified as "very liberal and liberal" and who identified themselves as Strong Democrats in terms of party affiliation during the time period;
• purple, which indicates the percentage of those who identified as "moderate/middle of the road" ideologically and who identified themselves as Pure Independents in terms of party affiliation during the time period; and,
• red, which indicates the percentage of those who identified as "very conservative and conservative" ideologically and who identified themselves as Strong Republican in terms of party affiliation, during the time period.

In 1972, among “very liberal/liberal” identifiers, one third said they were strong Democrats; four decades later, nearly 60% of those very liberal/liberal identifiers said they were strong Democrats.

Among “very conservative & conservative” identifiers, 28% in 1972 said they were strong Republicans; forty years later, nearly 50% said they are strong Republicans.  

And it appears that it’s just not the liberal or conservative ideologies who have found their respective homes within the two major parties: moderates have become more ‘independent’ as the parties have become home to the strong ideologues.

If you then look within the party supporters and their ideological tendencies, you’ll find adherence to ideology that is associated with party identification.

Within each party’s strong adherents, we see intense affiliation to either end of the ideology spectrum: in 2012, 42% of strong Democrats said they are liberal or very liberal, while nearly 75% of strong Republicans said they are conservative or very conservative.

Compare those ideological identifications to when the same survey question was asked forty years ago: in 1972, only 31% of strong Democrats said they were either “very liberal or liberal,” while only 38% of strong Republicans said they were either “very conservative or conservative.”

Meanwhile, the pure political independent has become even more middle of the road moderate, going from 42% in 1972 to 64% in 2012.  

So if we see that sorting has occurred due to ideology and partisanship, can we see if there’s polarization going on as well?  

As a starting point, what is polarization?  According to one set of scholars, polarization can be viewed as both a ‘state and process:’ as a state, polarization “refers to the extend to which opinions on an issue are opposed” while a process, polarization means “the increase in such opposition over time.”  

In looking at different issues and the opinions that strong Democrats, strong Republicans, and pure independents have, we can see a variety of levels of polarization at work from the 2012 electorate (again, using ANES data):

On whether government or private medical insurance should be provided:

On whether the federal government should make it more difficult to buy a gun:

On gay marriage:

On whether newer lifestyles are breaking down society:

On whether the world is changing and we should adjust to those changes:

On abortion:

For these issues and values, there is a clear difference between what strong Democrats and strong Republicans hold, with independents typically in the middle.

On other issues, the differences may not be as stark, as on:

The death penalty:

Taxing millionaires:

Global warming:

On all the policies and perspectives, however, there appears to be real differences between the way that the strong partisans view and support, or oppose, issues.

In fact, there are real differences to how partisans look at the opposition party, both in terms of how they view their opposition in ideological terms and whether they simply like or dislike their opponents.

Based on ANES Data from the 2012 election, we find the ideologies within those who identify as a Democrat (combined strong Democrat, not very strong Democrat, and independent-Democrat), Republican (combined strong Republican, not very strong Republican, and independent-Republican) or pure Independent:

It is obvious, from the above data, that Republicans are much more "conservative" in their ranks than Democrats are "liberal" (you have to add extremely liberal, liberal, and slightly liberal within the Democrats to equal the same proportion of extremely conservative and conservative within the GOP).

In asking partisans (strong & not very strong) and independents (leaners and pure independents) on how they view each party ideologically, both strong partisans tend to see the opposition as more ‘ideological’ in their viewpoint, with Democrats seeing the GOP as more “extremely conservative/conservative” and Republicans seeing the Democratic Party as more “extremely liberal/liberal.”

When asked a feeling thermometer towards both parties (with 1 being absolute dislike and 100 being absolute like), a pattern emerges with how each party’s strong partisans tends to rate the other party.

One final chart from the ANES 2012 Survey of the electorate, based on how groups view their affiliated party and how they view the opposition. It's quite tell the mirror images from strong partisans to the lack of anything pure independents like in the two major parties.

So do we see sorting or polarization as the culprit of the dysfunction of the recent American political landscape?  I think the answer is yes to both: sorting has occurred, and polarization has occurred as well. The question becomes: how do we deal with this sorting and polarization in a system of government that inherently creates conflict but forces compromise in order to achieve anything? 

That may be an answer that requires all perspectives to recognize the fact of our current system, and then deliberately decide to ignore the environment and do what is best. The problem continues, however: what one would define as "the best" is open to interpretation by both parties, the elites/elected officials, and the voters themselves. 

Where is the Surge of Democrats & Unaffiliated Voters In NC's Mail-In Ballots?

What has been most notable about North Carolina's mail-in ballots for the 2014 general election has been the surge in not only ballots from registered Democrats but from unaffiliated voters as well.

The other posts so far have been tracking the cumulative and daily totals of the mail-in absentee ballots, but with this post, I wanted to take a look at the location of these mail-in ballots to get a sense from 2010's election.

Statewide, as of October 5th, this year's total of requested mail-in ballots is currently at 45 percent of the 2010's total number of accepted mail-in ballots.  But within those 24,765 ballots and the final month of campaigning, Democrats are currently at 51 percent of their total 2010 numbers, with requests from unaffiliated voters at 56 percent of their totals four years ago.  In contrast, requests from registered Republicans are only 35 percent of their 2010 total numbers.

In terms of the counties with the largest overall requested ballots (for all voters), it is the typical counties that you would expect to see:

• Wake County (home to Raleigh): 3,173, with both Democrats and unaffiliated percentages at 76 and 71 percent of their final 2010 accepted ballot numbers, respectively.
• Mecklenburg County (home to Charlotte): 2,996, with unaffiliated voters at 73 percent and Democrats at 61 percent compared to their final 2010 accepted ballots numbers; however, Republicans lead in raw numbers, with 1,262 to Democrats 967 and unaffiliated's 764. 
• Guilford County (home to Greensboro): 1,512, with Democrats at 57 percent and unaffiliated at 58 percent.

In looking at the state's one hundred counties, 33 counties are seeing registered Democrats requesting ballots at a level over 50 percent from their 2010 total numbers; for example, Greene County's requested ballots from Democrats is 268 percent over their total 2010 accepted ballots number. Two other counties, Bladen and Onslow, are also over 100 percent in requested ballots compared to their 2010 final accepted ballot totals.

Registered unaffiliated voters requesting ballots are over 50 percent of their accepted ballots from 2010 in 40 counties.  While Robeson County's percentage of unaffiliated voters is 815 percent, the raw numbers are that requested mail-in ballots from unaffiliated voters is at 106 as of 10-5, while the total accepted ballots from unaffiliated voters in 2010 was only 13.  

Only 10 counties have registered Republicans over 50 percent of their requested ballots from 2010's total mail-in absentee ballots.

Below is a map indicating the counties where Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated (or some combination thereof) are currently at 50 percent in requested ballots compared to their total 2010 mail-in accepted ballots.  

Granted, not all requested ballots will be returned and accepted, but the surge in both Democratic and unaffiliated voters, in comparison to four years ago, is one of the early remarkable aspects to this year's heated electoral contest in North Carolina.

For those interested, here are the 100 North Carolina counties with their percentages of current requested mail-in absentee ballots (as of 10-5-14) to their final 2010 accepted ballot numbers:

2014 % as of 10-5-14 of 2010's Totals
	Party Registration:
	Democratic	Republican	Unaffiliated	TOTAL
State	51%	35%	56%	45%
ALAMANCE	74%	28%	60%	48%
ALEXANDER	10%	23%	35%	20%
ALLEGHANY	28%	77%	67%	47%
ANSON	21%	4%	17%	17%
ASHE	32%	44%	35%	37%
AVERY	13%	32%	61%	35%
BEAUFORT	59%	34%	53%	47%
BERTIE	38%	16%	30%	32%
BLADEN	122%	63%	264%	134%
BRUNSWICK	59%	40%	48%	46%
BUNCOMBE	68%	63%	83%	70%
BURKE	27%	34%	45%	32%
CABARRUS	35%	27%	47%	33%
CALDWELL	32%	19%	40%	27%
CAMDEN	19%	27%	13%	19%
CARTERET	64%	51%	90%	63%
CASWELL	25%	37%	27%	31%
CATAWBA	31%	33%	80%	40%
CHATHAM	92%	43%	73%	70%
CHEROKEE	34%	23%	31%	28%
CHOWAN	12%	27%	26%	21%
CLAY	22%	42%	32%	32%
CLEVELAND	33%	30%	64%	37%
COLUMBUS	11%	16%	14%	13%
CRAVEN	53%	44%	62%	51%
CUMBERLAND	56%	35%	58%	48%
CURRITUCK	21%	33%	17%	24%
DARE	35%	33%	61%	40%
DAVIDSON	46%	28%	40%	34%
DAVIE	22%	28%	40%	29%
DUPLIN	35%	30%	56%	36%
DURHAM	72%	61%	57%	65%
EDGECOMBE	23%	13%	33%	22%
FORSYTH	31%	33%	32%	32%
FRANKLIN	70%	26%	51%	44%
GASTON	37%	29%	35%	33%
GATES	11%	0%	20%	10%
GRAHAM	16%	23%	40%	23%
GRANVILLE	57%	44%	58%	52%
GREENE	268%	26%	31%	171%
GUILFORD	57%	39%	58%	48%
HALIFAX	60%	14%	56%	54%
HARNETT	36%	38%	52%	40%
HAYWOOD	61%	37%	45%	48%
HENDERSON	52%	31%	51%	40%
HERTFORD	33%	5%	50%	30%
HOKE	52%	27%	30%	35%
HYDE	0%	60%	56%	24%
IREDELL	22%	35%	49%	34%
JACKSON	54%	34%	44%	45%
JOHNSTON	61%	31%	73%	47%
JONES	17%	18%	14%	17%
LEE	27%	20%	45%	27%
LENOIR	90%	19%	90%	67%
LINCOLN	10%	29%	18%	19%
MACON	28%	42%	34%	37%
MADISON	34%	17%	64%	32%
MARTIN	10%	7%	31%	13%
MCDOWELL	15%	21%	52%	24%
MECKLENBURG	61%	46%	73%	56%
MITCHELL	38%	16%	10%	16%
MONTGOMERY	45%	36%	32%	39%
MOORE	50%	31%	50%	39%
NASH	50%	27%	43%	38%
NEW HANOVER	42%	22%	44%	32%
NORTHAMPTON	9%	17%	15%	11%
ONSLOW	108%	62%	79%	77%
ORANGE	73%	28%	74%	64%
PAMLICO	71%	33%	94%	58%
PASQUOTANK	37%	77%	43%	52%
PENDER	22%	28%	63%	31%
PERQUIMANS	17%	67%	36%	36%
PERSON	34%	33%	100%	44%
PITT	70%	20%	41%	50%
POLK	29%	29%	38%	31%
RANDOLPH	63%	35%	34%	39%
RICHMOND	17%	11%	14%	15%
ROBESON	77%	47%	815%	120%
ROCKINGHAM	25%	33%	38%	31%
ROWAN	64%	38%	56%	47%
RUTHERFORD	59%	28%	38%	39%
SAMPSON	15%	25%	24%	21%
SCOTLAND	38%	21%	7%	27%
STANLY	33%	22%	47%	30%
STOKES	15%	24%	17%	19%
SURRY	31%	35%	38%	34%
SWAIN	30%	48%	33%	34%
TRANSYLVANIA	60%	46%	70%	57%
TYRRELL	0%	100%	150%	29%
UNION	48%	34%	54%	40%
VANCE	19%	11%	42%	20%
WAKE	76%	35%	71%	55%
WARREN	45%	38%	130%	54%
WASHINGTON	17%	22%	38%	23%
WATAUGA	42%	28%	37%	36%
WAYNE	80%	50%	45%	60%
WILKES	19%	29%	20%	23%
WILSON	21%	26%	53%	26%
YADKIN	18%	38%	24%	30%
YANCEY	44%	34%	38%	39%

One month to go & NC's mail-in ballots should start hitting their stride

With four weeks to go, we should start to see the mail-in absentee ballots come rolling in with larger numbers as votes for the November 4 general election.

Over the weekend, the NC State Board of Elections released their data on requested and returned/accepted ballots. Among the 24,765 ballots sent out and the 4,697 ballots returned and accepted so far, the trend over the past two weeks have continued.

Requests from registered Democrats make up 41 percent of the 24,765, with registered Republicans at 35 percent and registered unaffiliated voters at 24 percent. At this point in 2010, Republicans were 47 percent, Democrats were 34 percent, and unaffiliated voters were 20 percent.

Among requested ballots:

• female voters are 56 percent while men are 43 percent
• white voters are 82.4 percent
• black voters are 12.3 percent

Among the returned and accepted ballots (19 percent so far), we should start to see a consider increase in these numbers over this coming week, based on what we saw four years ago in 2010.

Among the returned and accepted ballots so far:

• registered Democratic voters make up 45 percent
• registered Republican voters make up 35 percent
• registered unaffiliated voters make up 21 percent
• female voters are 53 percent while male voters are 46 percent
• white voters are 81 percent
• black voters are 14 percent

It may seem that in this Republican-favored year that North Carolina is an exception in seeing Democratic surge in absentee balloting, but over the weekend, Adam Smith, Tampa Bay Times' political reporter, notes that Republicans are leading in absentee ballots in the Sunshine State, but that Democrats have significantly cut into the GOP's numbers in comparison to 2010's performance. 

With a month of campaigning to go until November 4, concerns may start to ramp up within GOP circles and the Republican's campaign on the performance of not just Thom Tillis, who is still behind (albeit within the M.O.E.) in the latest poll released over the weekend, but also the GOP ground game, as evident by the mail-in numbers for the past few weeks.  This week's debates on Tuesday and Thursday between Hagan and Tillis may be more important for the challenger to change the dynamics of a fairly consistent campaign.

"Reversal of Fortune" in NC's Mail-In Ballot Numbers?

As we're getting close to putting another week of early mail-in absentee balloting in North Carolina into the record book, there's a movie title that comes to mind that was raised by a long-time observer of the Old North State's politics: 'Reversal of Fortune.'

Through yesterday (Thursday, Oct. 2), the number of requested mail-in ballots stood at 22,674, an increase of nine percent over the previous day's total.

Among those ballots requested and sent out through October 2nd, the percentages have tracked consistently: 41% going to registered Democrats, 35% to registered Republicans, and 24% to registered unaffiliated voters.  If you consider that the eligible pool of all registered voters in North Carolina is 42% registered Democrats, 30% registered Republicans, and 27% registered unaffiliated, Democrats are close to their average, Republicans are overperforming their numbers, and unaffiliated voters are slightly underperforming.

Requests by female voters are still at 56% of the requested ballots, with white voters at 83% and black votes at 12%.

Among those voters who have returned their ballots and have had them accepted, 4,237 are banked votes at this point, for a return rate of 19% from the requested number of ballots.

Registered Democrats are continuing their trends of being the plurality of votes coming in, with 44% of the accepted ballots coming from Democrats to 35% from registered Republicans and unaffiliated votes are at 21%.  This is a 'reversal' from 2010's numbers, where registered Republicans (at this point out from Election Day) were 44% of returned ballots and Democrats were 37% of returned ballots; unaffiliated voters were 18%.

Women are 53% of the returned and accepted ballots, with whites at 83% and black voters at 14%.

This performance by registered Democrats certainly can't be translated into 'assured votes' for their party's candidates, especially at the U.S. Senate level, but it does give Democrats, as Cameron Joseph of The Hill wrote about this morning, hope that NC's race can be a positive in what has become a toss-up election cycle for control of the upper chamber.

Finally, the next update will come Monday when we get today's numbers from over the weekend. Hope all have a good weekend.

33 Days To Go

The numbers regarding North Carolina's mail-in absentee balloting continue to tick up, with requesting adding another 8% to Tuesday's totals, bringing the requested number of ballots so far to over 20,000.  Out of these 20,000 plus ballots, 3,870 have been returned and accepted (19% return rate so far).

Yesterday's sent out ballots still show a cumulative healthy lead for registered Democratic voters (at 41%) to registered GOP voters (at 35%) and unaffiliated voters at 24%.  Women are at 55%, which raises an interesting point that I'll get to later.  White voters are 83% while black voters are 12%.

In terms of returned and accepted ballots: 

Of the 3,870 returned and accepted ballots so far, 44% are from registered Democrats, 35% from registered Republicans, and 20% from registered unaffiliated voters.

While women voters are 55% of the requested ballots, they are currently 53% of the returned and accepted ballots.  An article in today's Washington Post notes the "war for the female vote" and Greg Sargent notes that Democratic strategists are using the 53% threshold of females within the electorate, and if those females support Democratic candidates, then Democratic senatorial candidates may see "their chances of winning improve." By both the requested and returned/accepted ballots so far, in North Carolina at least, it appears the first part of this campaign strategy is working in the Tar Heel state for Democrats. 

The More We Add, the More It Stays the Same

It appears that the more requested and returned/accepted ballots we add to the pile of votes for North Carolina's general election in November, the more the trend stays the same.

As of today's data file by the North Carolina State Board of Elections, 19,274 ballots have been requested for the general election, an increase of 6 percent over yesterday's totals.

Registered Democrats continue their lead of requested ballots, at 41% to registered GOP voters at 36%, with registered unaffiliated voters at 24%. In terms of percentage increases from yesterday, registered Republicans are cutting into the Democrat's lead, with an increase of 7% for GOP requests compared to an increase of 5% for Democrats; unaffiliated requests increased 6%.

Female voters are 55% of the requested ballots, with white voters at 83% and black voters at 12%.

Of the 3,490 ballots that have been returned and accepted as votes (18% of the requested number), 45% of them are from registered Democrats, 35% from registered Republicans, and 20% from registered unaffiliated voters.

Women are 53% of the returned and accepted ballots, while white voters are 81% and black voters are 14% of the accepted ballots.

While we have to be careful of 'assuming' these are locked in votes for either party, it has generally been accepted assumptions that self-identified Republicans will vote 92-95% of the time for their party's candidates, while (nationally, at least) self-identified Democrats will vote at the same margin for their candidates. It is important to note, however, that among older registered Democrats in the Old North State, they belong to a special class of voters: while they may still be registered Democrats, many of them who live in the rural parts of the state are really Republican voters (a legacy of the old-time conservative Southern Democrat strain who realigned themselves to voting Republican).  The average age of the returned and accepted ballots so far is 64 years old.

Still, as I've indicated before, mail-in balloting has traditionally been a Republican-favored voting method, so with all of the above said, it should be cautiously optimistic that Democrats have the advantage so far.

Entering 5 Weeks Out to NC's General Election

As we enter five weeks out from the general election in North Carolina, I've assembled the usual data regarding the mail-in ballots (both those sent out/requested and those that have been returned & accepted), and have added another clarified chart to track those ballots sent out in 2010 to compare against this year's sent out absentee ballots.

First, the sent out/requested ballots: the trend for requested ballots continues to show registered Democratic strength when it comes to these traditional Republican-favored voting method.

Of the 18,186 ballots sent out so far, 41 percent are to registered Democratic voters, 35 percent to registered Republican voters, and 24 percent to registered unaffiliated voters.  Women are 55 percent of the sent ballots, while white voters are 83 percent and black voters are 12 percent.

In comparing these sent ballots to 2010's mid-term election, there is an unique exception that has to be taken into account. According to legendary NC General Assembly guru Gerry Cohen, 2010 mail-in ballots were automatically sent to military and overseas voters who had voted in 2008.  Between 2010 and 2014, there was a change in federal law that not longer required automatic mail-out of ballots to these folks.  Thus, the 2010 numbers would be inflated compared to the 2014 numbers, unless you delineate the 'civilian' only numbers as a basis of comparison, which I do in the following graphic.

I also give the remainder of this week's comparable 2010 numbers (36-32 days out from the election) to give some idea of what was seen in 2010 for this coming week.  As noted, registered Republicans have basically hit where they were this time in 2010 (88 votes ahead of 2010's date); but for Democrats, they are substantially ahead of where they were this time four years ago (2,759 votes), along with unaffiliated voters as well (1,448 votes ahead).

In terms of returned and accepted mail-in ballots (thus, actual votes), we won't know the vote totals so far, but we do know who sent them in:

Among the 3,146 ballots (17% of the requested ballots have been returned):

• 45 percent are from registered Democrats
• 35 percent are from registered Republicans
• 20 percent are from registered unaffiliated voters
• 53 percent from women
• 46 percent from men
• 81 percent from white voters
• 14 percent from black voters
• 5 percent from 'other' racial-category voters

In comparing the returned & accepted ballots from this year against the 2010 comparable numbers (again, based on the days out from Election Day):

All categories of registered voters are substantially ahead of their 2010 numbers, but again, it is the Democratic registered voters who are substantially ahead of their own 2010 numbers and ahead of Republican-registered voters, who were leading at this point in 2010.  

It's been now a week now, and the trends continue in mail-in ballots that we have been seeing, which leads me to start to be more convinced that the Democratic ground-game has seen a substantial amount of energy and enthusiasm, whether done through operations like the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's focus to organize on the ground or through the sheer enthusiasm by average Democratic voters.  

As of this date, with five weeks to go to the big day, this trend is too noticeable not to be taken seriously by all campaigns.  

North Carolina Going Purple?

Had the good fortunate to be on WFAE's Charlotte Talks talking about the rise of independent/unaffiliated voters in North Carolina. You can listen to the show here and here's the answer to Michael Tomsic's question about the role of unaffiliated registered voters participating in this past May's primary election: 18% if you take both primaries together, 22% in GOP primary, 12% in Democratic primary.

Also, here's a blog post on unaffiliated voters in NC that I wrote up for the show. For some reason, chart 3 isn't loading properly, so here it is as well:

36 Days and Counting to NC's General Election

We're now down to 36 days and counting to the general election in North Carolina, and the continued trend of registered Democrats requesting and returning their mail-in absentee ballots holds.

Of the 16,849 requested ballots sent out:

• registered Democrats are 41%
• registered Republicans are 35%
• registered unaffiliated voters are 23%
• female voters are 55%
• white voters are 83%
• black voters are 12%

In comparison to the 2010 election cycle, and using the days 43-39 out from Election Day for both years, we see a drop-off in comparing this year's to 2010, but Democrats should be pleased with their advantage over Republicans at this point in requested ballots:

From these 16,849 ballots requested so far this year, 2,653 ballots (16% of requested) have been returned and accepted as votes for the general election.

Of these returned and accepted ballots:

• registered Democrats are 46%
• registered Republicans are 34%
• registered Unaffiliated are 20%
• women are 53%, men are 46%
• white voters are 80%
• black voters are 15%

In comparing this year's cumulative returned and accepted mail-in ballots by party registration to the same days prior to the 2010 general election, the trends over the past few days have continued.

From the 40th day to the 39th day, registered Democrats increased their total 10%, while registered unaffiliated voters increased 9% and registered Republicans increased their total 6% (note: days 38 and 37 are Saturday and Sunday) (addendum: Days 38 and 37 are Saturday and Sunday, with no processing done until we get closer to Election Day, thus the flat lines on 38 & 37). 

One question that has arisen in looking at these numbers has been, are these voters who voted via mail-in ballots in 2010 or did these North Carolinians use other voting methods to cast their ballots in 2010?  

By matching up the voters' records of how they cast ballots in 2010 to this year's mail-in ballots, we see a significant majority of early voters so far did not use mail-in, but either in-person (absentee or on Election Day).  It will be interesting to continue to watch this aspect of the data.  

Interesting comparisons between voting methods in 2010 and 2014

In looking deeper into the mail-in ballots requests so far this year, one of the questions that has been surrounding this data is, "how did the voters, who are requesting mail-in ballots this year, cast their ballots in 2010's election?"  With the new voting laws (currently under legal challenge) having shortened the in-person absentee voting (in terms of days, but not hours), would the likelihood be that some voters who used in-person absentee voting or even waiting until Election Day to cast their ballots utilize mail-in absentee balloting this year?

Among the 16,849 requested ballots so far this year, I was able to merge that data with the 2010 voter history data from the North Carolina State Board of Elections and connect this year's voters' records with their 2010 voting records.

From these data, we're seeing a shift by voters to utilizing mail-in absentee balloting: four years ago, 60 percent of this year's voters (who are voting by mail) were either in-person absentee voters, in-person on Election Day, or some other method of casting their ballots.

For each of the registered party affiliation, here are the breakdowns:

For registered Democrats:

For registered Republicans:

For registered unaffiliated voters:

One other interesting trend: I compared the voters' registration to a party in 2010 to what their party registration is in 2014.

While registered Democrats saw 86 voters change their registration from being Democrat in 2010 to something else in 2014 (30 switched to GOP and 56 to unaffiliated) and registered Republicans saw 216 change from being GOP in 2010 to something else in 2014 (145 switched to Democratic registration and 71 to unaffiliated), it was unaffiliated voters who saw the biggest number of 'defections' from their ranks: 341, with 197 going to register Democratic and 144 to registered Republican.