33 Days To Go

The numbers regarding North Carolina's mail-in absentee balloting continue to tick up, with requesting adding another 8% to Tuesday's totals, bringing the requested number of ballots so far to over 20,000.  Out of these 20,000 plus ballots, 3,870 have been returned and accepted (19% return rate so far).

Yesterday's sent out ballots still show a cumulative healthy lead for registered Democratic voters (at 41%) to registered GOP voters (at 35%) and unaffiliated voters at 24%.  Women are at 55%, which raises an interesting point that I'll get to later.  White voters are 83% while black voters are 12%.

In terms of returned and accepted ballots: 

Of the 3,870 returned and accepted ballots so far, 44% are from registered Democrats, 35% from registered Republicans, and 20% from registered unaffiliated voters.

While women voters are 55% of the requested ballots, they are currently 53% of the returned and accepted ballots.  An article in today's Washington Post notes the "war for the female vote" and Greg Sargent notes that Democratic strategists are using the 53% threshold of females within the electorate, and if those females support Democratic candidates, then Democratic senatorial candidates may see "their chances of winning improve." By both the requested and returned/accepted ballots so far, in North Carolina at least, it appears the first part of this campaign strategy is working in the Tar Heel state for Democrats. 

Update on NC Mail-In Ballots & New Perspective on Cumulative Totals

Today's datafile of mail-in absentee ballots in North Carolina shows an increase of 5 percent in requested ballots, up to 14,403, with a 23 percent increase in returned ballots to 1,995 ballots accepted, both from the previous day.

Democrats continue to lead in requested ballots (41 percent of the total), with Republicans second (35 percent) and unaffiliated voters third (23 percent) and in accepted ballots returned (Democrats at 45 percent, GOP at 36 percent, and unaffiliated at 19 percent).

Women and white voters continue to lead in both gender and race in requested and returned/accepted ballots.

One change that I have made since tracking these numbers: previously, in comparing this year's performance in mail-in ballots, I was comparing 'first day' of this year to 'first day' of 2010's election, and the numbers generally showed a lower performance this year in comparison to the 2010 election.
Now, I'll be comparing "days out" from Election Day to garner a clearer comparison between the two elections (2010 and 2014). And what we find is a significant increase in all facets over the 2010 election results.

For example, the first day of returned/accepted ballots in 2010 saw 23 ballots counted, which was also the forty-third day prior to the general election day.  This year, due to ten days of counting returned and accepted ballots prior to the same "days before Election Day," we see a marked increase in the ballots counted on the forty-third day: 1,519 ballots, and that number has gone up with today's (September 24, with 42 days left before election day) data to 1,995 ballots.

I believe this comparison approach is better to make "day-to-day" before Election Day comparisons of 2010 to this year's, and would certainly welcome any thoughts and ideas from others. It is surprising, when viewed in this fashion, the strength of all three party registrations in terms of the numbers of ballots being returned, and the strength particularly of registered Democrats to lead in a traditionally-Republican method of voting.

Whether this is a recognition by the voters of the decreased early in-person voting method or the energy/enthusiasm level if up, and most significantly up by Democrats, is something to continue to pay very close attention to in this highly-competitive election year.

The Trends Continue to Hold in NC's Absentee Ballots for 2014 General Election

It's been a few days of ballots being mailed out to North Carolinians to vote and then return their ballots, and some of the notable trends that we saw early on are continuing within the 11,597 ballots requested and the 958 ballots returned and accepted so far (as of 9-18-14).

First, the requested ballots and their breakdowns:

Registered Democrats continue to be a plurality of the requests (41.2%), while registered Republicans are 36% and registered unaffiliated voters are 22.4%.  This continues a trend that traditionally runs counter to what we have seen in the past when it comes to mail-in absentee ballots: registered Republicans were traditionally the plurality of requests and returned/accepted, while registered Democrats have been the party which uses in-person absentee balloting.

If we continue to see this trend go into the next two weeks, there may be cause for concern on the GOP side regarding the ever-important "enthusiasm" to voting, while Democrats can look with some relief that indeed, their voters (if these registered Democrats are true Democratic voters) are energized and eager to show up and vote (in this case, mail in their vote).

Women voters are 55% of the requested ballots, and within this group, Democrats are 45%, Republicans 35%, and unaffiliated are 20%.  At 45% of the requested ballots, men are 38% registered Republicans, 36% registered Democratic, and 25% registered unaffiliated.

The average voter age is 63 years old, with whites making up 82.6%, black voters at 12.1%, and all others at 6%.

Among returned ballots that have been accepted:

• registered Democrats are 45.5%
• registered Republicans are 35.8%
• registered Unaffiliated are 18.5%
• white registered voters are 81%
• black registered voters are 14.3%
• female voters are 51.9%
• male voters are 47.8%

Again, if registered Democratic voters can continue to be the plurality of early votes via mail-in requests and accepted ballots, we may see a trend that others need to watch very carefully in this year's competitive election, especially for the U.S. Senate seat in the old North State.  

Update on NC Mail-In Absentee Ballots and Returned Ballots as of 9-17-14

The latest information on mail-in absentee ballots for the 2014 General Election in North Carolina shows over 10,000 ballots have been requested, with 793 (7%) of those returned and accepted as votes.

Ballot requests from registered Democrats continue to be the plurality, with 41%, while registered Republican ballot requests are at 36% and unaffiliated at 22%.

Among female voters (who are 55% of the requested ballots so far), 45% are registered Democrats, 35% registered Republican, and 19% are registered unaffiliated.  Among male voters, 38% are registered Republican, 36% registered Democrat, and 25% registered unaffiliated.

White voters are 82% of the requested ballots, with black voters at 12%. The average age for all requested ballots is 63 years old.

Among returned and accepted ballots, registered Democrats are 45%, registered Republicans are 35%, and registered unaffiliated voters are 19%.

Female voters are 51% of the return and accepted ballots to 48% for men; whites are 80% to 15% for black voters.