Update, as of 9-19-14, of NC's mail-in absentee ballots

This may start to sound like a broken record (is that still a viable comment nowadays with MP3s and iPods?), but the partisan trend in North Carolina's mail-in absentee ballots (early votes) has been holding steady for some time, and continues with today's data from the NC State Board of Elections' website.  There are 12,069 ballots that have been sent out, with 1,158 (10%) returned and accepted.

Among requested ballots that have been sent out, those ballots going to registered Democrats continue to be the plurality at 41%, while registered Republicans make up 36% and registered unaffiliated voters at 22%.

Women continue to outpace men in requested ballots, 55-44, while whites are 83% to 12% for black voters.  The average age continues at 63 years old.

Among those who have returned their ballots and those ballots have been accepted:

• registered Democrats are 46%
• registered Republicans are 36%
• registered unaffiliated voters are 18%
• women are 53% of returned & accepted ballots
• men are 47%
• white voters are 80%
• black voters are 15%
• all other races are 5%

Comparing 2010 to 2014 in terms of NC returned & accepted mail-in ballots

In looking at the 2010 mid-term election and the first couple of days of returned mail-in absentee ballots that were accepted in comparison to this year's returned & accepted mail-in absentee ballots, some notable trends stand out.

In 2010, registered Republican voters began a pretty considerable lead in returning mail-in ballots, ultimately constituting 45% of the final mail-in accepted absentee ballots, with registered Democratic voters were 36% and registered unaffiliated voters were 19%.  On the 10th day of returned ballots, Republicans were 43% of the ballots accepted so far in 2010.

So far this year, with 10 days of returned and accepted ballots so far, registered Democrats are 46% of the returned accepted mail-in absentee ballots, while registered Republicans are 35%, with registered unaffiliated are 19%.

If this trend continues, Democrats would be pleased with their turnout in a traditionally Republican-dominated use of early voting in North Carolina.  More will be posted later today when I analyze the latest postings from the North Carolina State Board of Elections absentee data file.

The Trends Continue to Hold in NC's Absentee Ballots for 2014 General Election

It's been a few days of ballots being mailed out to North Carolinians to vote and then return their ballots, and some of the notable trends that we saw early on are continuing within the 11,597 ballots requested and the 958 ballots returned and accepted so far (as of 9-18-14).

First, the requested ballots and their breakdowns:

Registered Democrats continue to be a plurality of the requests (41.2%), while registered Republicans are 36% and registered unaffiliated voters are 22.4%.  This continues a trend that traditionally runs counter to what we have seen in the past when it comes to mail-in absentee ballots: registered Republicans were traditionally the plurality of requests and returned/accepted, while registered Democrats have been the party which uses in-person absentee balloting.

If we continue to see this trend go into the next two weeks, there may be cause for concern on the GOP side regarding the ever-important "enthusiasm" to voting, while Democrats can look with some relief that indeed, their voters (if these registered Democrats are true Democratic voters) are energized and eager to show up and vote (in this case, mail in their vote).

Women voters are 55% of the requested ballots, and within this group, Democrats are 45%, Republicans 35%, and unaffiliated are 20%.  At 45% of the requested ballots, men are 38% registered Republicans, 36% registered Democratic, and 25% registered unaffiliated.

The average voter age is 63 years old, with whites making up 82.6%, black voters at 12.1%, and all others at 6%.

Among returned ballots that have been accepted:

• registered Democrats are 45.5%
• registered Republicans are 35.8%
• registered Unaffiliated are 18.5%
• white registered voters are 81%
• black registered voters are 14.3%
• female voters are 51.9%
• male voters are 47.8%

Again, if registered Democratic voters can continue to be the plurality of early votes via mail-in requests and accepted ballots, we may see a trend that others need to watch very carefully in this year's competitive election, especially for the U.S. Senate seat in the old North State.  

Update on NC Mail-In Absentee Ballots and Returned Ballots as of 9-17-14

The latest information on mail-in absentee ballots for the 2014 General Election in North Carolina shows over 10,000 ballots have been requested, with 793 (7%) of those returned and accepted as votes.

Ballot requests from registered Democrats continue to be the plurality, with 41%, while registered Republican ballot requests are at 36% and unaffiliated at 22%.

Among female voters (who are 55% of the requested ballots so far), 45% are registered Democrats, 35% registered Republican, and 19% are registered unaffiliated.  Among male voters, 38% are registered Republican, 36% registered Democrat, and 25% registered unaffiliated.

White voters are 82% of the requested ballots, with black voters at 12%. The average age for all requested ballots is 63 years old.

Among returned and accepted ballots, registered Democrats are 45%, registered Republicans are 35%, and registered unaffiliated voters are 19%.

Female voters are 51% of the return and accepted ballots to 48% for men; whites are 80% to 15% for black voters.

Via WFAE's The Party Line blog: Gender Politics in NC's Senate Race

I have a new post up at WFAE's The Party Line blog on gender politics playing out in the Hagan-Tillis Senate match-up.

Update on NC Mail-In Absentee Ballots and Returned Ballots as of 9-13-14

So far, nearly 10,000 North Carolinians have received their mail-in absentee ballots for the 2014 general election, and we have 4% of those ballots (379) returned.

As to the requested ballots: it appears that Democrats are still requesting the highest percentage of ballots, reversing the traditional dominance of Republicans in mail-in absentee ballots.

Mail-In Absentee Ballots Sent Out as of 9-13-14 in 2014 North Carolina General Election by Party Registration, Gender, and Race

Among party registration, Democrats continue to lead in requested mail-in ballots, with 41% to Republicans at 37% and unaffiliated voters at 21%.  The gender gap is pretty significant, with women requesting 56% of the ballots to 43% for men.  Among female voters, registered Democrats are 45% to 36% Republican and 19% unaffiliated; among male voters, Republicans are 39%, Democrats are 36%, and unaffiliated are 24%.  It appears, from at least these early numbers, that female Democrats are energized for this election, which could be a good early indicator for the Hagan campaign in the U.S. Senate contest.

White voters are 82% of the ballots requested, while black voters are 12.5% and all other races are 6%.

Among the returned mail-in ballots, the numbers are slightly different at this early stage:

Returned Ballots in 2014 North Carolina General Election as of 9-13-14

The gender split is pretty much gone, with women and men returning their ballots in nearly equal numbers.  Granted, only 4% of the requested ballots so far have been returned.

In terms of party registration of the returned ballots, 46% have come from Democrats, 36% from Republicans, and 18% from unaffiliated voters.  White voters are 81% of the returned ballots, while black voters are slightly outperforming their requested ballot performance with 15% of the returned ballots.

Update to NC's mail-in absentee ballots

We have a new set of data collected by the North Carolina State Board of Elections on requests for mail-in absentee ballots.  This is a second in a series of looking at some of the demographic data from these requests, and ultimately the returned ballots, in looking forward to November's general election.

In the first analysis, we saw a little over 7,500 ballots requested and sent out; this batch gives us 8,899 requests sent out.  Within these ballot requests:

Requests Sent Out for Mail-In Absentee Ballots for 2014 North Carolina General Election as of 9-11-14

In looking at a few key things:

• Registered Democrats are 41% of the requests, with registered Republicans at 37% and registered unaffiliated voters at 21%. 

• Ballots going to white voters are 81% of the requests, with black voters at 13%.

• Women are 56% of the requests, with men just 43%. Within female voters, 45% are registered Democrats, 36% Republicans, and 19% unaffiliated. Within male voters, 37% are registered Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 24% unaffiliated.

• Average age for requested ballots so far: 64 years old.

• Congressional District 9 (Republican Incumbent Robert Pittenger running unopposed) has 12% of the requested ballots, while District 6 (Republican Mark Walker vs. Democrat Laura Fjeld) has 11%.

Voting has begun in North Carolina!

Yes, ladies and gentlemen of the Old North State: voting is underway in our general election. And yes, it's only 2 months before the General Election Day, the Tuesday following the first Monday in November.

And by voting, I mean that people are requesting ballots by mail to submit their votes: 7,516 voters to be exact on the first day that mail-in ballots could be sent out.

And while none have been returned as yet, some early indications could be seen in some of the key numbers:

Requests for Mail-In Ballots in 2014 North Carolina General Election as of September 5, 2014

In looking at a few key things:

• Registered Democrats are 42% of the requests, with registered Republicans at 38% and registered unaffiliated voters at 20%. 
• Ballots going to white voters are 81% of the requests, with black voters at 14%.
• Women are 57% of the requests, with men just 42%. Within female voters, 46% are registered Democrats, 36% Republicans, and 18% unaffiliated. Within male voters, 37% are registered Democrats, 40% Republicans, and 23% unaffiliated.
• Average age for requested ballots so far: 65 years old
• Pretty evenly divided across congressional districts, though both Congressional District 5 (Republican Rep. Foxx vs. Democrat Josh Brannon) and Congressional District 6 (Republican Mark Walker vs. Democrat Laura Fjeld) have 10% each of the requested ballot totals. 

Historically, ballots coming from registered Republicans have been the plurality of requests.  These early numbers, however, may give us a sense of the crucial "enthusiasm" levels of partisans and non-partisans (although my guess is that both registered Democrats and Republicans will far outweigh their non-partisan unaffiliated (independent) voters).  

Over the next couple of weeks, I'll keep up with the mail-in ballot requests and the (more important) returned status ("accepted") in this area of voting.  

Just as a reminder: traditionally, mail-in absentee ballots are usually 1-2% of the overall total of ballots cast.  However, if the U.S. Senate race between Kay Hagan and Thom Tillis remains at a dead-even tie, then these potential 55-60,000 votes could be crucial.

2012 PPP Polls for Gubernatorial Race in North Carolina

2010 PPP Polls for U.S. Senate in North Carolina