What might presidential coattails, or voter loyalty, mean in 2020 in North Carolina?

By Michael Bitzer

In a recent Politico article on "Swing-state Republicans warn Trump's reelection is on shaky ground," former NC Governor Pat McCrory observed "the concern is: Will he have coattails for the other offices, from Senate to governor and other important races?" Geoffrey Skelley at FiveThirtyEight.com also looked at the effect of presidential coattails on a variety of down-ballot contests through various studies by political scientists. He comes to the conclusion that while presidential coattails can certainly help down-ballot party candidates, the inverse may be true as well: the president could bring down those lower-ballot candidates as well.

For most political scientists and historians of American politics, the concept of presidential coattails is that the 'top of the ticket/ballot,' that is the president, would bring in lower-level candidates (U.S. Senate and House candidates, for example) who might not have been able to win on their own accord. In other words, presidents could potentially drag their party's candidates across the finish line to victories in the general election.

With the increase in partisan loyalty of American voters, one of the key questions asked about voter behavior is whether the top of the ticket is bringing in the votes for lower level office candidates of the same party, or could the top of the ticket represents voters who vote 'straight party' down the ballot?

NC Requested Mail-In Ballots by Region, Nativism, Generation, and Party Registration

I decided to run some final analyses on today's (9-23-16) NC absentee mail-in ballots that have been requested, most notably by the region of the state (urban county, suburban county, rural county) and party registration.

What struck me was the dominance, this early, by urban county voters using mail-in balloting.

Of the nearly 61,000 requested ballots so far, urban county voters make up 63 percent of the requested ballots, with suburban county voters 17 percent and rural county voters 20 percent.

Here are the party registration percentages for each region:

If one was to make an 'educated guess' about these trends, urban Democrats are most likely pure-party loyalists, meaning that they will likely vote for their party's nominee. Conversely, the legacy of native, rural, conservative Southern Democrats who may be registered Democratic are more likely to be Republican voters. However, the impact of non-native North Carolinians could give more of a sense of 'party-loyalty' based on voter registration (a big if, mind you).

One more set of analysis was the number of native North Carolinians compared against non-native born voters, split by region:

Non-native North Carolinians are two-thirds of the requested 61,000 mail-in ballots so far, and are nearly 70 percent of the urban county voters requesting ballots. Not surprising is that the closest 'region' based on native vs. non-native are rural counties.

Two more: here is the breakdown by generations and regions:

And then by party registrations and regions for native vs. non-native NC voters who have requested mail-in ballots:

It will be interesting to see if this trend of non-native North Carolinians continues at such a high percentage over the next few weeks. 

I'll post something tomorrow morning before taking the weekend off and be back on Tuesday with Monday's requests and processing. 

Nearing the end of the first 2 weeks of NC mail-in ballots

As North Carolina nears the end of the first two weeks of mail-in absentee balloting, the trends that we have seen develop over time have pretty much stabilized and continue on pace.

Again, a word of caution: while registered Democrats have the lead in both requested and returned/accepted ballots, this may not mean that these are reliable, bankable Democratic votes. North Carolina has a legacy of the Southern conservative registered Democratic voter being in registered name only, while casting their votes for Republican candidates.

That being said, here are the overall numbers of ballots broken down in various 'status' categories (the first line that is blank indicates ballots still outstanding):

Of the total number of ballots sent out, 35 percent are from registered Democrats, 35 percent from registered Republicans, 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters, and less than one percent from registered Libertarians.

Of the ballots returned and accepted as votes, 41 percent are from registered Democrats, 35 percent from registered Republicans, 24 percent from registered unaffiliated voters, and less than one percent from registered Libertarians.

However, both registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters are overperforming their same-day cumulative totals in comparison to 2012's numbers: registered unaffiliated accepted ballots are 167 percent of their same-day totals four years ago, registered Democratic accepted ballots are 153 percent of same-day totals from four years ago, and registered Republican accepted ballots are 93 percent of their same-day totals from 2012.

Finally, in looking at the outstanding mail-in ballots yet to be returned, an even divide exists between registered partisans, with nearly 30 percent from unaffiliated voters.

Tomorrow's numbers will include today's (Friday, Sept. 23) process ballots. As noted in the 2012-2016 comparison data, by this point in the mail-in balloting process, registered Republicans had taken the lead in accepted ballots and held that throughout the remaining. The next trend to watch for is when that occurs this year; there seems to be a continue 'enthusiasm' level among certain blocks of voters to 'bank their ballots', and over the weekend, I'll be trying to decipher how these voters (if they were registered and voted in 2012) cast their ballots.

Updated NC Absentee Mail-In Ballots as of 9-21-16

As of 9-21-16, nearly 57,000 absentee mail-in ballots had been requested for North Carolina's general election. Out of that number, a little over 3,500 have been returned and accepted as ballots cast, with nearly 53,000 still outstanding and eligible to be returned and reviewed to be accepted as ballots. 

Of the 3,500 accepted ballots, those coming from registered Democrats are still leading (a note/reminder: just because party registration indicates one party does not indicate the likelihood of the individual voting that party, due to the nature of Southern conservative rural Democrats (most likely older voters) being more Republican voters than their own party).

Among the accepted ballots, 41 percent are from registered Democrats, 34 percent from registered Republicans, and 25 percent are from registered unaffiliated voters.

In comparison to 2012's same-day party registration totals (the total is 99 percent of the same day from four-years ago), registered Democrats are at 119 percent of their same-day total from 2012, registered unaffiliated voters are 136 percent from four years ago, and registered Republicans are 70 percent of their total voters from 2012.

Registered Democrats are over-performing their 2012 patterns, both by leading their numbers and continuing to lead in the overall numbers. By this point in 2012, registered Republicans were leading the mail-in absentee balloting and would continue to do so for the remainder of the accepted mail-in balloting.

Among the outstanding ballots remaining, the party registration breakdown is: