Halfway Through NC's Early Voting Period And We're Ready to Surpass 2014's Numbers

With more than 9 days in the books for North Carolina's in-person absentee onestop voting, we're halfway through the early voting period and the state is ready to surpass the 2014 total absentee ballots cast.

Through Friday, October 26, North Carolina voters have requested over 1.1 million absentee ballots, for both mail-in and onestop/in-person, and returned and accepted over 1 million of them.  The daily numbers and the cumulative totals for both types of absentee ballots are below, first by requested ballots:

And then by returned and accepted ballots:

NC's Middle Weekend of Early Voting

On Thursday evening, I was at a dinner meeting that ran late, past 9 PM, and about 9:20 PM, my phone started to blow up. I thought, oh no, what now...and I was received tweets, DMs, and text messages that Rachel Maddow was citing some information that I had posted about North Carolina's early voting, especially on Sunday and the traditional "Souls to the Polls" activity that black churches engage in with their members:

Just a minor correction to the story: this past weekend, on Sunday October 21, North Carolina had only 9 out of the 100 counties open for Sunday early voting.

This weekend (October 27 & 28), the core middle weekend in the 18 days of early voting (in-person) in North Carolina, 20 counties will have early voting opportunities on Sunday, with more on Saturday (based on information from the NC State Board of Elections website):

I'll be updating the numbers coming in over the weekend, along with updating the new voter registration data file and analyzing that aspect as well.

Thanks to all for reading and following along, and especially to the new subscribers from the mention on the Rachel Maddow Show.

NC's Early Voting Is In the Books, with a Record Number of Ballots

With Saturday's close to in-person absentee voting, and the last trickle of mail-in absentee ballots, North Carolina has set a new record in early voting: over 3 million ballots banked for this year's general election on Tuesday.

A few more ballots will come in over the next few days, especially by mail-in method, so we will need to track those over time.

In comparison to 2012's same day totals two days before the election, 2016's total ballots are 12.2 percent ahead of where they were four years ago. Among all of the absentee ballots, 42 percent have come from registered Democrats, 32 percent from registered Republicans, and 26 percent from registered unaffiliated voters.

And while registered Democrats saw their total ballots slip from their same-day totals in 2012 (down 1.5 percent by sent date), registered Republicans are 13.4 percent ahead of their same day totals from 2012 while the big news continues to be the surge in registered unaffiliated voters casting ballots: they finished 41.2 percent ahead of their same day cumulative totals from 2012.

In reviewing the race of voters who have submitted absentee ballots, 71 percent have come from white voters, an increase of 18 percent over their same day totals from 2012, while 22 percent have come from black voters, a decrease of 9 percent from their same day totals from four years ago, and 'all other races' (including Asian, Indian American, multi-racial, and other races) are at 7 percent, with an increase of 51 percent over their 2012 same-day totals.

Ultimately, ballots from black voters are down 69,353, with some still coming in over the next few days. This deficit from black voters was at 26 percent down at one point in the early voting cycle.

Men have finally cut 'somewhat' into the percentage disparity between the sexes: 55 percent of the total absentee ballots are from women, down from their high point of 57 percent.

Among female voters, 46 percent came from registered Democrats (down slightly in their overall percentages), 30 percent from registered Republicans, and 24 percent from registered unaffiliated voters. Among male voters, 36 percent were from Democrats, 35 percent from Republicans, and 28 percent from unaffiliated voters.

Out of these 3.1 million mail-in and in-person absentee ballots cast, slightly over 3 million have been accepted as votes for Tuesday's election:

Accepted Absentee Ballots:

Among the 3,098,544 accepted mail-in and in-person ballots, the party registration break down is:

Among the racial composition of these accepted absentee ballots (both mail-in and in-person):

With the vast bulk (95 percent) of accepted absentee ballots are done by in-person, the analysis now shifts to looking at this critical block of votes accepted for Tuesday's election.

Accepted In-Person Absentee Ballots:

Of the 3 million accepted absentee ballots, 2.9 of them are from in-person, with 42 percent from registered Democrats, 31 percent from registered Republicans, and 26 percent from registered unaffiliated voters.

In comparison to their same day totals in 2012, accepted in-person ballots are ahead 15 percent, up more than 376,000 ballots from four years ago:

Among the party registration of accepted in-person absentee ballots and their comparison to 2012:

Registered Democrats are slightly behind their 2012 total numbers so far (down 1 percent, or nearly 17,500 ballots), registered Republicans are up 20 percent in accepted in-person ballots (more than 156,000 ballots), and registered unaffiliated voters, which are indeed the true wild-card this year, are up 44 percent in their accepted in-person absentee ballots, with over 234,000 more ballots than they cast at the end of 2012's early voting period.

The daily percentages for the second week of early voting in North Carolina:

The racial composition of accepted in-person absentee ballots in North Carolina shows 70 percent of the total ballots coming from white voters, but among the party registrations, a tale of different voting groups:

The daily percentages showed that more minority voters showed up yesterday than they have been, but below their daily percentage from four years ago:

Moving on to the analysis of how accepted in-person ballot voters cast their ballots from four years ago:

Based on the above information, we are definitely seeing a shift in how voters who participated four years ago are participating this year, with 19 percent of 2012 'on Election Day' voters casting early ballots this year, with 5 percent not having voted in 2012 but voting this year, and 17 percent being 'new voters' to early voting (having registered after 2012's election).  I'll try to do some further analysis by party registration within this group of voters later today.

The great question, along with the surge of unaffiliated voters, is ultimately what will the 2016 electorate size be like: under or over the 4.5 million ballots cast in 2012?  We will have to wait until Tuesday evening to start seeing the vote totals come in.

Next, the analysis of different factors, namely the region of the state (urban, suburban, and rural counties), whether the voter is a native to the state or born outside of the state, and then the generational cohort that they belong to; first, the region of the state continues to show a strong domination by urban voters, with their party registration figures:

It is likely that one-half of the ballots this year will come from 12 out of 100 counties, and those are urban areas. More than three-quarters of all the accepted in-person ballots have come from urban and suburban counties.

Next, by native vs. those voters not-born in North Carolina:

Non-native born voters continue their majority of the accepted in-person absentee ballots being sent in.

Finally, an interesting development has occurred among the generational cohorts:

Millennials are now 20 percent of the accepted in-person ballots, having made up considerable ground in their overall percentages. Baby Boomers have dropped to 41 percent from a high of 46 percent, with Silent/Greatest generation also slipping in their composition of final accepted in-person absentee ballots. More analysis on this will come later as well.

Turnout Rates For Accepted Absentee Ballots:

With over 3 million registered voters having cast accepted absentee ballots out of a potential 6.8 million registered voters, I began to calculate the 'turnout' rate so far using just these accepted absentee ballots against the registered voter block.

First, the overall turnout rate so far is 45 percent among the accepted absentee ballots compared to the total registered voter pool, with the following turnout rates for racial categories and party registration:

From yesterday's turnout percentages, white voters have taken back a slight lead in their turnout rate compared to black voter's turnout rate. Also notable and is usually "par-for-the-course" in North Carolina, more registered partisans turn out in comparison to unaffiliated voters.

Next, the gender, region, native vs. non-native, and generation cohorts and their registered voter turnout rates so far:

Not surprising, female voters are enjoying a higher registered voter turnout rate than male voters, while NC natives are slightly ahead compared to non-native voters. Within the regional analysis, both urban and suburban turnout rates are equal, with rural turnout rate lower. And while over half of the Baby Boomers and Silent/Greatest generation voters have cast accepted absentee ballots so far, Millennials and Generation X voters are seeing their turnout rate increase over the last few days of early voting. It will be important to watch these rates and types of voters showing up on Tuesday.

Updated for Mail-In Absentee Ballots:

I've finally run the numbers on the mail-in absentee ballots, which are lagging behind 2012's numbers:

Right now, accepted mail-in ballots are only 81 percent of where they were on this day in 2012.

Registered Republicans are leading among this voting method, with 41 percent of the accepted mail-in ballots so far; registered Democrats are 32 percent, and registered unaffiliated voters are 27 percent.

However, in comparison to their 2012 numbers, registered Republicans are 34,000 ballots behind their same day numbers, or 65 percent of where they were four years ago.

Registered Democrast are 4,300 ballots behind, or only 92 percent of their 2012 same day totals, while registered unaffiliated voters are ahead by 2,800 ballots, or at 107 percent of their same day 2012 numbers.

Of the nearly 58,000 outstanding ballots so far, the party registration breaks down as:

I'll be doing some more analysis later in the day after a quick break, but I did want to express my thanks to everyone who has been reading this blog. It has been overwhelming that over 5,000 page hits per day have occurred over the past two weeks, and I'm appreciative of the interest that folks have generated in this. Thank you, and GO VOTE.

Michael

NC Absentee Ballots Continue Pace Ahead of 2012's Numbers, Now at 2.4M

With the third largest number of ballots coming in (227,100) yesterday, North Carolina's absentee balloting continues to move ahead of where things stood four years ago on this same day, as the state nears the end of early voting (absentee by in-person) that concludes on Saturday before Tuesday's general election.

In total (combining all requests for mail-in and in-person absentee ballots), North Carolina stands at 2,425,475 ballots, with 2.2 million coming in by in-person:

This total ballot number represents an 11.1 percent increase over the same day totals from 2012's absentee voting period.

The total absentee ballot's party break-down is: 42 percent from registered Democrats, 32 percent from registered Republicans, and 25 percent from registered unaffiliated voters.

In comparison to the 2012 trend lines based on party registration:

What is notable is that with three days to go for in-person absentee balloting, registered Democrats have just about caught up to their cumulative 2012 numbers, down only 0.8 percent. Registered Republicans are well ahead of their 2012 numbers, up 11.1 percent, but the truly remarkable line on the above chart is from registered unaffiliated voters: up 42 percent from the same day totals in 2012. That's your wildcard for the 2016 election so far.

Among the racial composition of all absentee ballots, white registered voters continue to be 72 percent of the ballots, with black voters at 22 percent. However, black voters have been a higher daily percentage of the ballots, trending between 27 and 28 percent of the ballots. All other races are now at 7 percent of the total.

White voters are 18 percent ahead of their same-day cumulative totals from 2012, while black voters continue to make up their deficit so far in comparison to four years ago, down now 11 percent (it was 17 percent down last Friday). All other races combined are up 48 percent from the 2012 same day totals.

In the gender break-down, women continue to dominate the total absentee/early voting, standing at 56 percent of all the ballots (both mail-in and in-person):

Female voters are 47 percent registered Democrats, 30 percent registered Republicans, and 23 percent registered unaffiliated, while male voters are 37 percent Democratic, 35 percent Republican, and 28 percent unaffiliated.

Finally, taking all of the absentee ballots, one has to separate out the 'accepted' ballots for both voting methods, mail-in and in-person:

Accepted ballots, from both mail-in and in-person delivery, stands at 2.3 million, or 96 percent of the total absentee ballots.

Accepted In-Person Absentee Ballots

Of these 2.3 million accepted ballots, 94 percent are coming from in-person ballots.

Of the party registration break down on the total accepted ballots, registered Democrats are 43 percent of the accepted absentee ballots, with 32 percent from registered Republicans and 25 percent from registered unaffiliated voters:

The 2.2 million accepted in-person ballots represent a 15 percent increase over the same day from 2012:

The daily comparisons to 2012's cumulative totals for accepted in-person absentee ballots shows that registered Democrats are 43 percent, registered Republicans are 31 percent, and registered unaffiliated voters are 25 percent.

Overall, the total accepted in-person absentee ballots are running 15 percent ahead, continuing to build up. Registered Democrats are now only one percent behind their 2012 total numbers from the same day in 2012, while registered Republicans are 20 percent ahead of their numbers and registered unaffiliated voters are 46 percent ahead, continuing to increase their percentages.

The daily party registration break down for the last week of early voting is:

And the daily composition of accepted in-person absentee ballots by returned date are:

In terms of the racial composition of accepted in-person ballots, whites continue to dominate:

The racial composition by parties reveals stark differences among the different voting groups using in-person ballots:

If you compare the 2012 daily cumulative numbers to this year's in terms of race, you see the advantage being developed by white voters this year in the accepted in-person absentee balloting:

In terms of the percentage of the in-person absentee balloting method by race:

And the percentage changes from 2012's same day totals to this year's same day totals by race:

Currently, white voters are 24 percent ahead of their 2012 same-day cumulative totals, while black voters are down 11 percent and all other races combined are up 52 percent. Black voters are making steady headway in eating into their deficit compared to 2012, but with three days to go, the question will be can they make up more ground, or does the Clinton campaign shift its ground game strategy to getting more black voters to show up on Election Day, something that in 2012 black voters did not do necessarily.

In looking at the voters who have cast accepted in-person absentee ballots so far, over 60 percent of them used the same method four years, but 16 percent voted on Election Day in 2012 and another 16 percent were registered after the 2012 election.

Finally, in looking at the accepted in person absentee ballots by three different factors (region, native, and generation), by party registration:

Urban voters continue to dominate the accepted in-person ballots.

New North Carolinians to the state (not born in NC) continue to dominate.

And in comparison to their previous days' percentages, Millennial voters (under 35 years old) have ticked up to 17 percent of the total accepted in-person absentee ballots, while Baby Boomers have dropped from around 46 percent to 43 percent.

As we are nearing the end of the 'early' voting period (in-person absentee voting method), I decided to look and see where different groups are currently at in terms of their voter registration numbers from 10-29-16. Two sets of charts following: the first being by race and party registration, comparing the registration numbers to the numbers of accepted in-person absentee ballots cast so far and their percentages of 'turnout,' and the second being by gender, natives, region, and generation, with the same approach.

First, turnouts among registered voter groups through accepted in-person ballots by race and party registration:

Next, by gender, native, region, and generation cohort:

If we expect that we have seen nearly half of the ballots cast so far as we did in 2012 total (4.5 million), these turnout rates give us a sense of who has shown up and what potential other groups may have to show up and cast ballots.

In response to a reporter's query yesterday, here is where each party's registered voters are coming from in terms of region (urban, suburban, and rural counties), by numbers of accepted in-person ballots and the corresponding percentages:

While it's not surprising that Democrats are seeing the vast majority of their accepted in-person ballots come from urban areas, 57 percent of unaffiliated voters are in urban counties and 47 percent (a plurality) of registered Republicans are from urban counties. One key aspect of North Carolina's political environment has been, and will continue to be, the urban-rural divide, and this trend may indicate support for various candidates coming from different regions, but it is very hard to extrapolate specific support for a presidential candidate from these numbers--general observations is needed with this data.

Accepted Mail-In Ballots:

In comparison to 2012's returned and accepted mail-in ballots on this same day, 2016's numbers are currently 82 percent of where they were four years ago.

Of the 130,000 returned and accepted mail-in ballots, the party registration break-down is 41 percent registered Republicans, 32 percent registered Democrats, and 27 percent registered unaffiliated.

However, deficits are still quite large among registered Republicans utilizing this method this year: currently, they are at 64 percent of where they were four years ago this same day.

Registered Democrats are at 94 percent of their same-day totals four years ago, and unaffiliated voters are at 109 percent of their totals from four years ago.

The number of outstanding ballots has dropped to 85,000, with the party registration break-down as:

Thanks for reading through this election cycle. The end is nigh!