Trump Approval Drops as North Carolinians Oppose Iran Escalation; Cooper Leads Senate Race

By Michael Bitzer

One month into the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, North Carolinians have grown more negative in their views of President Donald Trump, according to a new Catawba-YouGov survey. A plurality say the U.S. was wrong to attack Iran, and as the Pentagon signals a potentially prolonged conflict with ground operations, a strong majority oppose deploying troops. 

The survey also finds that Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley in the early horserace numbers for the U.S. Senate election, 48 percent to 34 percent among likely voters (including those who initially said they were undecided but lean toward a candidate), with 14 percent undecided.

The End of the Berger Era

By Christopher Cooper

Phil Berger has spent more than a decade and a half as the most powerful politician in North Carolina. Last week, he conceded that he lost his primary election to challenger Sam Page by 23 votes—a loss that has been called a political “earthquake” and covered by national press, including the New York Times.

North Carolina political insiders are positively apoplectic about what may come next. But you can be forgiven if you're still unsure why this is such a big deal. It is a state senate race, after all.

Elections Don't Stop: While we watched the results roll in, let's not forget the people who made it possible — even in the middle of a hurricane

 by Christopher Cooper

We just finished the 2026 primaries in North Carolina. And, while the major storylines are about the outcomes, we should take note of the people who didn’t make the headlines: election administrators.

That’s as it should be. Election administration is a profession whose measure of success is when they’re invisible. Perhaps no better example of their success—and their importance—came during Hurricane Helene in Western North Carolina.

Who Should Control War Powers? North Carolinians Favor Constitutional Division of Authority

By Michael Bitzer

From Vietnam to Iraq to more recent military engagements, the balance of war-making authority between Congress and the president has been a recurring point of conflict in American politics. The Constitution divides this power—giving Congress the authority to declare war while making the president commander-in-chief—but in practice the boundaries between the two branches have often blurred. A recent survey of North Carolinians shows that while the institutions may clash, public opinion still leans strongly toward maintaining the constitutional balance.

In a previous post on North Carolinians and their opinions regarding war powers, it was noted that “nearly three-quarters of North Carolinians say presidents should seek congressional authorization before engaging the U.S. military,” according to the Catawba-YouGov Survey conducted in August 2025.

This is one of the many shared powers between the legislative and executive branches of government, which many Americans know as “checks & balances” (political scientists tend to use the phrase ‘separate institutions (of government) sharing power’, in this case, the war making power).

On War Powers, North Carolinians Favor Constitutional Balance

By Michael Bitzer

With continuing U.S. military action involving Iran, the question of who should authorize military force—the president or Congress—has once again returned to the forefront of American politics.

But where do North Carolinians stand on the division of governing authority over war powers?

In August 2025, the Catawba-YouGov Survey posed a series of questions about governing authority and constitutionalism to 1,000 North Carolinians.* 

Among the governing authorities and powers in the U.S. Constitution, Article 1, Section 8 states “The Congress shall have Power…To declare War … To raise and support Armies…(and) To provide and maintain a Navy.” In Article 2, Section 2, the Constitution states “The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States….” 

In the survey, respondents were asked the following question:

How important is it that the president must seek authority from Congress to engage the U.S. military against another nation?

A Week Out: Five Takeaways from the 2026 NC Primary

 by Christopher Cooper

We’re a week out from the 2026 Primary in North Carolina, and the dust is settling — slowly. We still don’t know who won the most consequential legislative race in the state and we won’t know who actually showed up to vote until canvass closes and the voter history file drops. But with a little distance, a few things are coming into focus.

 

The Morning After NC's Primary Election, and the Story is: 2 Votes

By Michael Bitzer

It’s an extremely early morning after the North Carolina primary election and making sense of what happened last night requires some initial thoughts, followed by (surprise, surprise) the official results and data to analyze.

But here are some way-too-early reactions to what we saw in last night’s returns.

When they say ‘every vote counts,’ they literally mean it—especially it’s 2 votes.

With all due deference to the U.S. Senate nomination contests, the real race of the evening was the N.C. State Senate District 26 Republican nomination battle between the most powerful GOP official for the past 15 years, Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger, and his home county sheriff and bête noire Sam Page.

When all the precincts reported and the results still unofficial, Page bested Berger by two votes.

It's Primary Day in North Carolina!

 by Christopher Cooper

Today, North Carolina, Texas, and Arkansas kick off the 2026 primary season. But no state better illustrates the collision between nationalized politics and intensely local battles than North Carolina. Here are a few tools to get you ready for what’s happening in the Old North State.

Early Vote Energy Before Tuesday's Finish Line for NC's Primary Election

By Michael Bitzer

Before a single Election Day ballot is cast, North Carolina’s 2026 primary has already told us something important.

Early voting totals have surpassed both the 2022 midterm primary and the 2024 presidential primary at the same point in the calendar. That alone makes this cycle notable. But the real story is not simply about aggregate numbers — it is about who is voting, which ballot they are pulling, and how those choices compare to recent cycles.

The top-line figure suggests heightened engagement. Yet beneath that surface lies a far more revealing set of dynamics: a Democratic primary outperforming recent benchmarks, an unusually strong Unaffiliated tilt toward the Democratic ballot, and a geographic pattern that reinforces the state’s now-familiar urban–suburban–rural divide.

NC Early Voting Continues to Break the Script

By Michael Bitzer

With just days left before early voting ends in North Carolina, one thing is clear: the trends discussed earlier this week aren’t fading—they’re holding and accelerating. And they point to one unmistakable development—a pronounced Democratic turnout advantage that has yet to show signs of narrowing.

As North Carolina’s early voting gets closer to the last day (ending on Saturday at 3 PM), through Wednesday, 2026 turnout is running 29 percent ahead of the comparable point in the 2022 midterm primary and 9 percent ahead of 2024’s presidential primary. That latter comparison is particularly notable given that presidential cycles typically drive higher participation—even if 2024 featured little Democratic competition at the top of the ticket.