Brief NC Candidate Filing Update (updated regularly)

 by Christopher Cooper

Candidate filing in North Carolina began Monday, December 4 at noon and continues until Friday, December 15 at noon. This filing season is important--arguably more important in many cases than the General Election-- so I'm going to try to get in the habit of posting brief daily regular updates throughout this period for those who want to keep track of how the candidate fields are shaping up. These updates will be quick and the prose will be....unadorned.

Here's the update through December 13 (posted on December 14). 

Candidate Filing and the Illusion of Choice

by Christopher Cooper

If you want to understand how you will be governed in 2025, the time to pay attention is now.

Candidate filing for the 2024 election in North Carolina kicks off today (Monday, December 4). From now until the end of filing on Friday, December 15th at noon, North Carolinians who want to run for elected office can fill out some forms, pay one percent of the salary for that office, and become a candidate. Of course, few of them do this quietly--there's usually an announcement, a web site, a social media blast, and a press release that accompanies the official application.

Although it might be tempting to discount these announcements as "just politics," this is the time where the lion's share of outcomes for the 2024 election are being determined.

Barometer or Bellwether? Analyzing Ohio's Proposition 1

By Susan Roberts

Just days ago, the citizens of Ohio passed Issue 1, the latest in a string of state constitutional protections for access to reproductive rights and access to abortion. By a margin of 56.6 to 43.4 percent, Ohioans amended their state constitution to support reproductive freedom with access to abortion being only one item in language considered having “reasonable limits.” The victory was even sweeter for pro-choice Ohioans since only three months earlier, they defeated an effort by the Republican state legislature to raise the threshold to amend from a simple majority to a sixty-percent vote margin.  Remarkably, this vote was virtually identical to the vote on Issue 1's outcome, with 56.5 to 43.5 voting not to raise the threshold.

About that New York Times/Siena Poll

 by Christopher Cooper

Two days before the 2023 elections that will decide  the next Governors of Mississippi and Kentucky, control of the Virginia and New Jersey legislatures, and the leaders of municipal governments in North Carolina and other states, the political world was gnashing teeth over....a poll about the 2024 Presidential election.

The New York Times/Siena poll of six battleground states (excluding North Carolina, but I digress...) showed Donald Trump with a commanding lead over Joe Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and within the margin of error in Wisconsin. It also showed Trump garnering support from almost a quarter of African American voters. After reading the results, it seemed as if every Democrat in America commenced to panicking and trashing the New York Times while everyone with a closet full of MAGA hats sang the praises of the New York Times and expressed faith in public opinion polls. Strange times we're living in.

My takeaway: this poll reinforces that either Joe Biden or Donald Trump could win the 2024 Presidential election. That's it. Nothing more, and nothing less. Trump is not suddenly a favorite in 5 battleground states and he's certainly not up by 11 percentage points in Nevada. Nor is Biden favored in those states. 

So, why am I pouring a large bucket of cold water on the poll aftermath?

Quick Links About North Carolina Redistricting

by Christopher Cooper

As readers of this blog are no doubt aware, new maps dropped for North Carolina's congressional, state house and state senate districts last week. All four of us have been busy trying to understand what these maps might mean for representation in the Old North State. Here are a few quick links, graphs and tables that we hope will help others trying to do the same.

A (Too Early) Look at No Labels Registrants in North Carolina

By Christopher Cooper

On Sunday, August 13, the North Carolina State Board of Elections voted 4-1 to recognize "No Labels" as an official political party in North Carolina. No Labels joined the Democratic, Republican, Green, and Libertarian Parties as the state's only registered parties, although the largest group of registrants in the state remains Unaffiliated. 

Last Saturday, the North Carolina voter registration file was updated with the first wave (really more like a ripple) of No Labels registrants. So, who are these early adopters? 

Why Is NC's Governor Considered "Weak"?

For those who watch and study North Carolina politics closely, especially the different branches of state government, most acknowledge that the Old North State's chief executive--the governor--is considered to be one of the 'weakest' governors in the nation. And on WFAE's Charlotte Talks for Tuesday, June 18, ONSP contributor and Western Carolina University political science professor Dr. Christopher Cooper will join a discussion about the Tar Heel governor and its impact on state government and politics.

As some background, looking at each of the 50 governor's formal institutional powers (such as the number of elected or gubernatorial appointed executive officers; tenure length and re-election opportunity; appointments within six major areas of state bureaucracy; budgetary power; veto power; and gubernatorial party control of the legislature) and creating an overall index for each state, one can see a wide spectrum of formal power held by state chief executives across the country--and notice the very 'light-shaded' state of North Carolina. 

Map created based on data from Table 8-4 of Politics in the American States and updated for May 2023 legislative control
by Michael Bitzer

In fact, North Carolina's governor is currently ranked 50th out of the fifty states in institutional power, as Cooper notes in this blog post.

"The Almanac of American Politics" Profile of North Carolina and Gov. Roy Cooper

By Louis Jacobson

Editor's Note: Louis Jacobson is a senior correspondent for PolitiFact and a regular contributor on state politics to Sabato's Crystal Ball and U.S. News and World Report. Since 2002, Louis has handicapped political races, including races for Congress, governor, state legislature, other state offices, and the electoral college. Louis has served as deputy editor of Roll Call and as the founding editor of its legislative wire service, CongressNow. Earlier, Louis spent more than a decade as a reporter covering Congress, politics and lobbying for National Journal. He is also a senior author for "The Almanac of American Politics," a heralded reference work for those who are interested in knowing more about the politics of the United States. 

In this special column, Louis shares his chapter on North Carolina and Governor Roy Cooper. In addition, readers of ONSP can pre-order this book with a 15 percent discount.

For more than five decades, the Almanac of American Politics has set the standard for political reference books. 

In July, the Almanac will be publishing its 2024 edition, with some 2,200 pages offering fully updated chapters on all 435 House members and their districts, all 100 senators, all 50 states and governors, and much more.

Reaction to SCOTUS's Decision in Moore v. Harper

By Christopher Cooper

Nearing the end of its term, the U.S. Supreme Court announced its decision in the highly anticipated Moore v. Harper case. Here are some quick reactions as to the critical points of the opinion (Michael Bitzer and I will likely have smarter and more informed takes after some more time has passed and after we've had a chance to read it a few more times). 

Before we descend into the weeds, I'm going to pull back and attempt to provide a 10,000 foot nuance-free summary of how we got to this point. If you're the kind of person who has strong opinions on the independent state legislature theory (ISL), or is prepared to weigh in on the relative weight we should apply to so-called "natural packing" v. gerrymandering, this summary is not for you. 

If, however, you've been paying attention to other things (hello: College World Series fans) and want to catch up quickly, this is for you. Just remember, as a nuance-free summary, it might get you through a cocktail party conversation, but not one filled with politicos or election lawyers.

An Analysis of North Carolina's New Abortion Bill

By Rebecca J. Kreitzer

Editor’s note: with the high visibility regarding Senate Bill 20, which the North Carolina General Assembly introduced and passed last week, ONSP asked an expert on abortion policy, Dr. Rebecca Kreitzer, to offer her analysis on the bill and its potential impacts as a special contribution to the blog. Her views do not represent the opinions of her home academic institution.

Recently, the North Carolina General Assembly passed Senate Bill 20, a process that saw the bill's introduction to final adoption completed in less than two days. Ostensibly entitled "Care for Women, Children and Families Act," the first half of the bill restricts access to abortion in numerous ways before tacking on an assortment of policy changes to "improve infant and maternal health." However, the law's provisions make little impact on improving healthcare for women or children, and likewise it shouldn't be referred to as a "12 week abortion ban" because the restrictions on abortion begin earlier than 12 weeks and go far beyond gestational bans. 

In total, about 48 hours transpired between the content of the bill becoming public and the bill passing the Senate and getting sent to Governor Cooper –  notably shorter than the mandatory waiting period the law requires for patients seeking abortion to reflect on their decision. Governor Cooper will veto the bill. However, with State Representative Tricia Cotham becoming a Republican only months after campaigning on a platform of expanding access to abortion, the Republicans now have a slim veto-proof supermajority in both chambers to override the governor’s objections and make the bill law. Republican legislators in the General Assembly have maximized their chances at overriding a veto, including changing chamber rules to allow veto override votes to be taken without any prior notice.