Entering the Waning Days of North Carolina Early Voting

As we head into the waning days of early voting in North Carolina, here's the latest update (as of Tuesday, Oct. 30) on the numbers of Tar Heel voters heading to the polls before the official Election Day (the following numbers are of "accepted" ballots so far):

• 1,562,112 in-person (walk-in) ballots cast
• 132,524 mail-in ballots 
• 5,495 "others" (e-mail and fax requested) ballots

These numbers represent an increase of 26% over the cumulative same-day totals in 2008 (nearly 1.7 million so far this year compared to 1.3 million this same date in 2008). 

In looking at "walk-in" (in-person/one-stop) ballots cast so far, North Carolina is running approximately 17% ahead of the cumulative total on the same day in 2008. However, Monday's preliminary totals reflected a drop of about approximately 22,000 ballots from the same day in 2008.  This is probably due to the impact of Hurri-blizzard Sandy, especially on the coast and in the mountains.  

Cumulative Totals of In-Person Absentee Ballots Cast in North Carolina: Comparison of 2008 to 2012

In terms of the three major party affiliations in North Carolina, all three are still ahead of their cumulative 2008 totals at the same point in time; however, Democrats have dropped to 50% of the total ballots cast so far, while Republicans are 29% and Unaffiliated Voters are at 19% of the total in-person absentee ballots cast so far.

Cumulative 2012 to 2008 In-Person Absentee Ballots Cast in NC by Registered Voter Party Affiliation

In looking at each party's daily activities, Democrats, with the exception of Monday, are over-performing their 2008 numbers. Interesting, both Republicans and Unaffiliated voters also over-performed their 2008 numbers, including on Monday--but just barely (Republicans added 1,627 over their 2008 numbers and Unaffiliated voters added 589 over their 2008 numbers).

Again, my experience has been that these numbers will be revised in the next few days.

Daily 2012 Compared to 2008 In-Person Registered Ballots Cast in North Carolina by Registered Democrats

Daily 2012 Compared to 2008 In-Person Absentee Ballots Cast in North Carolina by Registered Republicans

Daily 2012 Compared to 2008 In-Person Absentee Ballots Cast in North Carolina by Registered Unaffiliated

 In looking at the racial composition of the in-person absentee ballots cast so far, both white and black voters did experience a drop in their numbers on Monday relative to their 2008 same day total.  However, this number will most likely readjust in the next few days, along with the impact of Sandy.

2012 Compared to 2008 In-Person Absentee Ballots Cast in North Carolina by White and Black/African-American Voters

Nevertheless, white voters continue to compose 65% of the in-person absentee ballots cast, while black voters are 30% (in 2008's total electorate--combining both early and Election Day--they were 22%), while "all other races" are at 5% of the total in-person ballots cast.

The First Four Days of Early Voting (In-Person) in North Carolina

Now that North Carolina has a few days of In-Person Absentee ballot casting (otherwise commonly known as Early Voting), we can start to do some comparisons with the performance of different groups--registered Democrats, Republicans, and Unaffiliated voters, for example--to their performances in 2008's record-breaking early voting activity.

In the below graphic is the trend line for early voting as a whole, with all ballots cast as In-Person Absentee votes.  In comparison to 2008, the cumulative early votes cast are exceeding those posted four years ago.

On the first day of early voting, more than 49,000 more votes were cast this year than in 2008, and the three subsequent days also saw more votes cast than on the same days four years ago: by 40,000, 24,000, and 8,600 respectively.

In looking deeper into these ballots cast, though, we can also see some partisan patterns emerging that could give an indication that the Democratic ground-game is back in full operation this year.

In looking at the trend lines for registered Democrats, Republicans and Unaffiliated voters casting ballots, all of them are above their 2008 numbers--with Democrats making considerable totals added to their numbers from four years ago.

Party Numbers by Cumulative Daily Totals from 2012 Early Voting (In-Person) to 2008's Early Voting (In-Person)

The next three charts detail the three different groups and their progress so far in the first four days of 2012 early voting in comparison to 2008's trend lines.

Registered Unaffiliated Voters in Daily Totals Casting Early Votes (In-Person)

Registered Republican Voters in Daily Totals Casting Early Votes (In-Person)

Registered Democratic Voters in Daily Totals Casting Early Votes (In-Person)

While all three groups of voters are above their 2008 trend lines, Democrats had impressive numbers in the first four days of early voting.

With that being said, a major qualifier must be made at this point: not all North Carolina registered Democrats will vote Democratic.  Granted, we know from exit poll data going back several presidential elections that self-identified partisans will typically vote 90% of the time for their party's candidate, but in the Tar Heel state, it is likely that some registered Democrats--who are older, white, conservative, and rural--are actually Republican voters.

So, while the numbers look good for Democrats, a major caveat has to be warned in reading into how these voters may be selecting their presidential candidate.

One other facet of early voters could be the racial composition. In 2008, black registered voters made up 22% of the entire electorate, but that combines both early voting and Election Day voting. Among early voters, black voters were 29% of all the early votes cast, with white voters being 67% of all the ballots cast in early voting.

In the first four days of early voting, black voters are 35% of the early votes cast and are building on their numbers from four years ago; white voters are down to 60% of the votes cast.  All other races--Asian, Native American, and others--are 5% of the votes cast so far; in comparison, they were only 1% of the early votes cast in 2008.

Daily Numbers from 2012 Compared to 2008 In-Person Absentee Ballots Cast in North Carolina by White and Black/African-American Voters 

I'll be posting more about the early voters casting ballots over the next two weeks, and will be posting some summaries at the other blog I write for, WFAE's The Party Line.

Just a reminder: in 2008, we had 4.3 million votes cast in the North Carolina presidential election, with 58% of those votes coming before Election Day.  While I'm not sure we will see a repeat of that 4.3 million total votes cast, I may be rethinking that due to the numbers of early votes we are seeing in just the first four days.