Monday, October 10, 2016

Awaiting the 5th Week of NC's Absentee Mail-In Ballots

As we await the fifth week of North Carolina's absentee by mail-in ballots to recommence following the Columbus Day holiday, the final numbers of the first four weeks continue to demonstrate that registered Republican voters, while taking the lead in requested ballots, are significantly behind their numbers from 2012 on the same day. Conversely, both registered Democrats and registered unaffiliated voters are showing a greater-than-four-years-ago presence in a traditionally GOP-heavy voting method.

So far, nearly 125,000 North Carolina registered voters have requested mail-in ballots, with nearly 25,000 returning their ballots and having them reviewed and accepted.

Among the requested ballots:

  • White voters: 84.4 percent
  • Black voters: 8.7 percent
  • Millennials: 21.5 percent
  • Generation X: 13.1 percent
  • Baby Boomers: 35.2 percent
  • Silent/Greatest: 30.1 percent
  • Native North Carolinians (born in the state): 35.3 percent
  • Born outside of the state/unknown: 64.7 percent

Among the requested ballots, registered Republican voters are 40 percent, with 32 percent from registered Democrats, 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters, and less than one percent from registered Libertarians.

Among the accepted ballots, 38 percent are from registered Democrats, 37 percent from registered Republicans, and 25 percent from registered unaffiliated voters.

In comparing the same day totals, by party registration, against the same day cumulative totals in 2012:

While the total number of accepted ballots returned so far in comparison to 2012 are behind (only 83 percent of where they were four years ago), registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters are at 112 percent of their 2012 same-day totals each, while registered Republicans are only 58 percent of where they were in 2012 on the same day totals.

In looking at the total ballots requested (sent out on same day in 2012 and 2016), again, both registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters are ahead of their same day totals from 2012, while registered Republicans are significantly behind in their requested/sent ballots.

Of the outstanding ballots by party registration:

Finally, some analysis on how (and if) the 2016 mail-in voters participated in 2012 or were registered after 2012: