Saturday, October 8, 2016

Ending the 4th Week of NC Absentee Mail-In Ballots

As we end the fourth week of North Carolina's absentee mail-in balloting, registered Republicans have taken their lead in requested ballots, as they traditional have done in the past. But in comparison to their percentages from four years ago, Republicans are significantly behind, while registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters are ahead of where their numbers were in 2012.

In total, over 121,000 ballots have been requested by mail-in, with 40 percent coming from registered Republicans, 32 percent from registered Democrats, 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters, and less than one percent from registered Libertarians.

Among those who have returned and had their ballots accepted, registered Democrats have a slight lead in their numbers over registered Republicans.

However, in comparison to their performance in 2012 (by same-day cumulative totals of accepted ballots), registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters continued to outpace their numbers from four years ago, 12 and 10 percent ahead respectively.

Total ballots are 18 percent below where they were this same day in 2012, while registered Republicans are 43 percent below where their 2012 numbers were on this same day out from the election.

In looking at the comparison data from when mail-in ballots were sent out by boards of elections, the registered Republican 'running behind' and registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters 'running ahead' trends are evident:

And finally, in looking at the pattern of how this year's absentee by mail-in ballot voters and their participation (or lack thereof) in 2012, a third of this year's voters participated in the same voting method (absentee by mail-in), but 38 percent voted in person, either via absentee (early) voting or on Election Day 2012.