Wednesday, October 5, 2016

10-5-16 NC Absentee Mail-In Ballots Analysis

As of 10-5-16, North Carolina's absentee accepted mail-in ballots have taken a slight dip in comparison to the overall same-day numbers compared to four years ago. In 2012 on this same day, a total of 20,265 ballots had been accepted; today, the number of accepted ballots is 17,317.
Of the requested ballots so far, 40 percent are from registered Republicans, 32 percent from registered Democrats, 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters, and less than one percent from registered Libertarians.

Among those accepted ballots, registered Democrats continue their lead:

40 percent of returned and accepted ballots are from registered Democrats, 36 percent from registered Republicans, and 25 percent from registered unaffiliated voters. Comparing returned and accepted ballots to the same day cumulative totals from the parties in 2012, registered Democrats still lead in their percentage (117 percent compared to their 2012 same-day cumulative numbers), with registered unaffiliated voters at 114 percent, and registered Republicans are at 58 percent of their same-day numbers.

One key advantage that registered Republicans has a greater percentage of outstanding mail-in ballots:

One additional analysis piece is looking at the voters who have requested mail-in ballots and their voting method (or lack thereof) from 2012: