By Michael Bitzer
With just days left before early voting ends in North Carolina, one thing is clear: the trends discussed earlier this week aren’t fading—they’re holding and accelerating. And they point to one unmistakable development—a pronounced Democratic turnout advantage that has yet to show signs of narrowing.
As North Carolina’s early voting gets closer to the last day (ending on Saturday at 3 PM), through Wednesday, 2026 turnout is running 29 percent ahead of the comparable point in the 2022 midterm primary and 9 percent ahead of 2024’s presidential primary. That latter comparison is particularly notable given that presidential cycles typically drive higher participation—even if 2024 featured little Democratic competition at the top of the ticket.
But it continues to be an uneven distribution between the Republican and Democratic primary numbers. With all the expectations that the GOP U.S. Senate contest would be the more ‘lively’ of the two top-of-the-ticket nomination fights, it’s the Democratic side that remains significantly ahead.
Compared to four years ago and the last mid-term, Democratic ballots are 50 percent ahead of their same day total, and 37 percent ahead of where they were in 2024’s presidential primary. Granted, there was no real contest on the Democratic side (Biden was still running for re-election at that time), so the numbers are softer than for a competitive contest two years ago, but to have a mid-term primary at this level—with a confirmation of Cooper’s candidacy—is notable.
While Democratic primary ballots are up significantly over 2022 levels, Republican ballots are up just 7 percent—and trail their 2024 pace by 16 percent. This produces an overall 58–41 Democratic-Republican ballot split—an imbalance that would require a dramatic late Republican surge, in either the final days of early voting or on Election Day—to meaningfully narrow.
With the early voting trajectory pretty well laid and the final push of early voters typically coming on Thursday and most importantly Friday, these accepted early ballots could be a significant portion of the overall ballots when the dust settles on the evening of Tuesday, March 3.
The Unaffiliateds Continue Their Democratic Lean
In looking at where the partisans and Unaffiliateds are, over 200,000 registered Democrats have cast a party primary ballot, compared to nearly 134,000 registered Republicans.
And Unaffiliated registered voters—who can pick either party’s primary ballot—continue to split more Democratic: 55 percent to 45 percent.
In a state where unaffiliated voters now make up the largest registration bloc, even modest shifts in their primary participation can shape the narrative about intensity and momentum.
In terms of composition of both party primaries, the Democratic primary is 72 percent registered Democrats to 28 percent Unaffiliated, while the Republican primary has a 68/32 split between registered Republicans and Unaffiliateds.
Race-Ethnicity, Age, & Generations Hold Steady
The overall primary electorate continues to be dominated by White and Black non-Hispanic voters, while Hispanic/Latinos are only one percent, with all other races/unknown at 6 percent.
And the partisan divide is still very evident: White voters are picking the Republican ballot, while all other voters are selecting the Democratic ballot.
Age is still very much skewing older, as shown in this histogram chart:
Broken down by generational cohorts, Boomers still dominate at 57 percent of all primary ballots cast and accepted so far. Combining them with the Silent generation, two-thirds of NC primary voters casting early ballots are over the age of 62.
At this stage, a familiar pattern is being reinforced: primary electorates in North Carolina remain older, whiter, and more partisan than the November electorate will be.
Two of Three Key Questions Appear to be Answered
In the 10-day analysis of NC early voting, I gave three questions moving forward through this week that I was particularly interested in:
- Does turnout maintain this pace through the final week?
- Do Republicans close the enthusiasm gap to Democrats?
- And does the appearance of Democratic enthusiasm reflect intensity that carries into the general election—or simply a primary electorate skewed toward reliable partisans?
On question one—whether turnout would maintain its pace—the answer appears to be yes. Daily ballot totals have increased by an average of 13 percent each day this week, and we generally see high numbers on the final Thursday and Friday of early voting.
On question two—whether Republicans would close the enthusiasm gap—the answer is increasingly no. A sustained 58–41 split suggests the gap is structurally embedded, not cyclical.
The third question—whether Democratic primary intensity translates into general election strength—remains unresolved. Primary electorates are not November electorates. Tuesday’s Election Day turnout will help clarify whether this is broad enthusiasm or reliable partisan consolidation.
If past voting patterns hold, a majority of total ballots may already be cast before polls even open on Election Day. In modern North Carolina elections, campaigns don’t simply win on Tuesday—they build substantially in the weeks before it.
For now, the data tell a clear story: turnout is high, Democrats are overperforming relative to recent cycles, Republicans have yet to close the gap, and unaffiliated voters continue to lean towards the Democratic primary.
Tuesday night will answer some questions—but it may raise even larger ones about what this primary says about November.
Bonus Analysis: The closely watched GOP Primary in State Senate District 26
Many of us in #ncpol world are watching with increasing fascination the GOP slugfest between Republican State Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger (the most powerful GOP state official over the past 15 years) and his home county sheriff Sam Page.
This isn’t just a local contest—it’s a test of long-held establishment power of Berger versus insurgent challenger of Page inside the Republican Party.
In looking at the 13,000+ ballots cast so far in State Senate District 26, the composition of the two party primaries between the two counties—Rockingham (home to Berger and Page) and Guilford (with a significantly greater share of the voter pool)—shows a split in county influence in the two parties.
On the Republican side, nearly seven out of ten ballots are from the home county battleground of Rockingham, while on the Democratic side, six out of ten are from Guilford.
Within each party primary, the influence of partisans versus Unaffiliateds is also notable.
In Guilford, the percentages within both primaries is fairly even: a three-to-one partisan to Unaffiliated dynamic for both the Republican and Democratic primaries.
But in Rockingham, while the Democratic primary has only 13 percent Unaffiliated, the Republican primary is 35 percent Unaffiliated. The movement of the ‘unaffiliated’ into the Rockingham GOP primary is something to note.
Again, we’ll need to watch the returns come Tuesday night, but I dare say this particular race will garner a lot of ‘refresh’ hits on the NC State Board of Elections website that evening.
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