Friday, November 4, 2016

On the Penultimate Day of NC's In-Person Absentee Voting, All Absentee Ballots Hit 2.6M

On the penultimate day of North Carolina's in-person absentee voting period (which ends on Saturday), all absentee ballots have hit 2.6 million ballots, thanks to an additional 232,000 ballots being cast yesterday.

In terms of the party registration and the voting method (whether it is mail-in or in-person), the total pool of absentee ballots (both accepted and still being processing, for example), the breakdown of the 2,663,628 ballots are:

Registered Democrats make up 42 percent of the total absentee ballots so far, with registered Republicans at 32 percent and registered unaffiliated voters at 26 percent.

In comparison to this same day in 2012, the total pool of absentee ballots in the state is 12.8 percent ahead.

In comparison to 2012's party registration break downs among all ballots, registered Democrats are at their 2012 numbers, while registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters are ahead.

Registered Democrats are 0.1 percent behind their numbers from the same day in 2012, while registered Republicans are 12.5 percent ahead and registered unaffiliated voters are 43.3 percent ahead of their same day totals from four years ago.

In terms of the racial composition of all NC absentee ballots, 72 percent continue to be from white voters, with 22 percent from black voters and 6 percent from voters of all other races.

On a daily percentage, however, registered white voters are only 68 percent of yesterday's ballots cast, while black voters were 27 percent and all other races were 5 percent. So the numbers are increasing among black voters, however, they are still down 10 percent from their 2012 same day total numbers with a deficit of over 60,000 ballots compared to 2012. White voters are up 19 percent and all other races are up 51 percent compared to same day four years ago.

In terms of gender of all absentee ballots, women continue to be 56 percent of the absentee ballot pool:

Among female voters, 47 percent are from registered Democrats, 30 percent from registered Republicans, and 23 percent from registered unaffiliated voters. In comparison, male voters are 36 percent registered Democrats, 35 percent registered Republicans, and 28 percent registered unaffiliated voters.

Next, in looking at the total absentee ballot pool, one needs to look at the total accepted ballots so far:

Of the 2.6 million total absentee ballots, 2.5 million, or 97 percent, have been accepted for Tuesday's general election. I move into this category of accepted ballots for the next section.

Accepted Absentee Ballots:

Of these 2.5 million accepted ballots by delivery method (mail-in or in-person), the party registration break down is:

The overwhelming majority of accepted absentee ballots are by in-person, as has been the historic trend in the state.  The analysis now focuses on the in-person accepted absentee ballots.

Accepted In-Person Absentee Ballots:

In comparison to 2012's accepted absentee ballots, this year's accepted in-person absentee ballots of 2.4 million are ahead of the same day four years ago by 16 percent.

Registered Democrats are 43 percent of the accepted in-persona absentee ballots, while registered Republicans are 31 percent and registered unaffiliated voters are 25 percent. In comparing the party registration between this year and four years ago on the same day:

Democrats have met their 2012 same day totals (ahead by 475 ballots), while registered Republicans are 21 percent ahead of their same-day totals from four years ago, and registered unaffiliated voters are 47 percent ahead of their same day totals. This increase in unaffiliated voters is the true wildcard in this election.  The next chart gives an isolated view of the last week of in-person voting by party:

And this chart represents the party percentages each day of the last week of in-person voting by day:

The racial composition of the total accepted in-person absentee ballots shows a slight drop from the 72 percent white to 71 percent, with a slight increase in black voters from 22 to 23 percent. But there are major differences within the party registration by race:

The daily percentages by race for accepted in-person ballots shows this slight uptick in black voters casting ballots this year, but still down from their percentages in 2012 on the same day:

The slight uptick in 'all other races' may be something to watch moving forward as well.

So far, 60 percent of 2016's accepted in-person absentee voters used the same voting method in 2012, but there's a growing percentage over the past few days of new voters and those voters who voted on election day in 2012 (combined account for 33 percent of the accepted in-person ballots so far):

Among the regional, native vs. born out of state, and generational analysis:

Urban voters still have a commanding lead, and registered unaffiliated and registered Republicans from this area of the state are tied in their accepted in-person absentee ballots.

Non-native voters are still 57 percent of the accepted in-person ballots, and registered unaffiliated voters are one percent behind registered Republicans.

And among the generation cohorts within the accepted in-person absentee ballots, Millennial voters are inching their overall percentage of the pool up, to 18 percent today. At the beginning of this week, Baby Boomers were 45 percent of the pool, and now they are down to 43 percent, with voters from the Silent/Greatest generation dropping one percentage point as well.

As with yesterday's post, I have begun looking at the 'turnout' among registered voters in different key categories and see where things stand in terms of the 6.8 million registered voter pool and who has cast accepted in-person absentee ballots so far.

So far, the overall turnout based on the voter registration pool stands at 36 percent. Among the turnout based on race and party registration based on their registration totals:

And the percentages of these groups compared to their total registration figures are:

In comparison to their voter registration 'turnout' rate, black voters have taken a slight edge over white voters, while a greater percentage of registered Democrats have turned out among the party registration. Traditionally, registered unaffiliated voters have a lower voter registration turnout rate than do partisan registered voters in North Carolina.

Among the turnout rates for gender, native vs. non-native born, region, and generation:

In comparison to yesterday's turnout rate, Millennials increased from 19% of their registration pool to 22 percent, while Gen Xers went from 30% to 33% of their share of the voter registration pool.

Finally, in looking at the accepted in-person absentee ballots by region and party registration:

What is interesting is that among unaffiliated voters, urban county voters are a substantial majority from that pool, while among registered Republicans, their majority of ballots is coming from both suburban and rural counties.

Accepted Mail-In Ballots:

Finally, the analysis on mail-in ballots, concentrating on accepted ballots:

Of the 138,000 accepted mail-in ballots so far, this year's total accepted mail-in ballots are only 82 percent of where things stood four years ago on this same day.

Registered Republicans are 41 percent registered Republicans, 32 percent registered Democrats, and 27 percent registered unaffiliated.

In comparison to 2012's same day totals, registered Republicans are at 65 percent of where they were four years ago on this same day, while Democrats are 94 percent and unaffiliated are at 108 percent of where their numbers were on the same day in 2012.

Among the outstanding ballots still remaining: