Saturday, September 20, 2014

NC Mail-in Ballots Update as of 9-20-14

With 12,791 requests for mail-in absentee ballots for the 2014 North Carolina general election, we're continuing the trend of Democrats leading in both requested ballots and in returned & accepted ballots.

Currently Democrats are 42% of the requested ballots, with Republicans at 35% and unaffiliated voters are 23%.  Democrats saw more requests come in (an increase of 7% over a 4% increase for GOP and 6% for unaffiliated from the day before), so their percentage ticked up one point while GOP voters went down one, in comparison to yesterday's percentages of the total requests. Women are still 55% of the requests, and white voters are 82% with black voters at 13%.  Average age of the voter remains at 63 years old.

Among the 1,339 ballots (10% of the requested) that have been returned and accepted as votes so far:

The percentages continue to hold from over the past few days:

  • registered Democrats are 46%
  • registered Republicans are 36%
  • registered unaffiliated voters are 18%
  • women are 53%
  • men are 47%
  • white voters are 80%
  • black voters are 16%
  • all other races are 5%
In comparing this year's mail-in ballots per day to the 2006 and 2010 elections, we see two trends:

Comparing this year's first twelve days of mail-in returned and accepted to 2006, a Democratic year, we have to note that there was no major state-wide race (such as governor or U.S. Senate; h/t to Gerry Cohen). This year's numbers are tracking above 2006, but that Democrats led in 2006 and this year's is perhaps some indication of better energy and mobilization on behalf of Democrats in terms of the 'enthusiasm' gap that has indicated GOP dominance.

In comparing 2010, a GOP election year and one that saw a U.S. Senate race, the reversal of Republican dominance from 2010 to Democratic-leads would also seem to indicate a level of enthusiasm that was not evident in the 2010 Tea-Party insurgency. 

Friday, September 19, 2014

Updated as of 9-19 of running cumulative 2010 & 2014 NC returned ballots

And here's the updated chart comparing the first 11 days of early mail-in returned and accepted ballots in North Carolina general elections for 2010 and 2014 by party registration:

Update, as of 9-19-14, of NC's mail-in absentee ballots

This may start to sound like a broken record (is that still a viable comment nowadays with MP3s and iPods?), but the partisan trend in North Carolina's mail-in absentee ballots (early votes) has been holding steady for some time, and continues with today's data from the NC State Board of Elections' website.  There are 12,069 ballots that have been sent out, with 1,158 (10%) returned and accepted.

Among requested ballots that have been sent out, those ballots going to registered Democrats continue to be the plurality at 41%, while registered Republicans make up 36% and registered unaffiliated voters at 22%.

Women continue to outpace men in requested ballots, 55-44, while whites are 83% to 12% for black voters.  The average age continues at 63 years old.

Among those who have returned their ballots and those ballots have been accepted:

  • registered Democrats are 46%
  • registered Republicans are 36%
  • registered unaffiliated voters are 18%
  • women are 53% of returned & accepted ballots
  • men are 47%
  • white voters are 80%
  • black voters are 15%
  • all other races are 5%

Comparing 2010 to 2014 in terms of NC returned & accepted mail-in ballots

In looking at the 2010 mid-term election and the first couple of days of returned mail-in absentee ballots that were accepted in comparison to this year's returned & accepted mail-in absentee ballots, some notable trends stand out.

In 2010, registered Republican voters began a pretty considerable lead in returning mail-in ballots, ultimately constituting 45% of the final mail-in accepted absentee ballots, with registered Democratic voters were 36% and registered unaffiliated voters were 19%.  On the 10th day of returned ballots, Republicans were 43% of the ballots accepted so far in 2010.

So far this year, with 10 days of returned and accepted ballots so far, registered Democrats are 46% of the returned accepted mail-in absentee ballots, while registered Republicans are 35%, with registered unaffiliated are 19%.

If this trend continues, Democrats would be pleased with their turnout in a traditionally Republican-dominated use of early voting in North Carolina.  More will be posted later today when I analyze the latest postings from the North Carolina State Board of Elections absentee data file.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

The Trends Continue to Hold in NC's Absentee Ballots for 2014 General Election

It's been a few days of ballots being mailed out to North Carolinians to vote and then return their ballots, and some of the notable trends that we saw early on are continuing within the 11,597 ballots requested and the 958 ballots returned and accepted so far (as of 9-18-14).

First, the requested ballots and their breakdowns:

Registered Democrats continue to be a plurality of the requests (41.2%), while registered Republicans are 36% and registered unaffiliated voters are 22.4%.  This continues a trend that traditionally runs counter to what we have seen in the past when it comes to mail-in absentee ballots: registered Republicans were traditionally the plurality of requests and returned/accepted, while registered Democrats have been the party which uses in-person absentee balloting.

If we continue to see this trend go into the next two weeks, there may be cause for concern on the GOP side regarding the ever-important "enthusiasm" to voting, while Democrats can look with some relief that indeed, their voters (if these registered Democrats are true Democratic voters) are energized and eager to show up and vote (in this case, mail in their vote).

Women voters are 55% of the requested ballots, and within this group, Democrats are 45%, Republicans 35%, and unaffiliated are 20%.  At 45% of the requested ballots, men are 38% registered Republicans, 36% registered Democratic, and 25% registered unaffiliated.

The average voter age is 63 years old, with whites making up 82.6%, black voters at 12.1%, and all others at 6%.

Among returned ballots that have been accepted:

  • registered Democrats are 45.5%
  • registered Republicans are 35.8%
  • registered Unaffiliated are 18.5%
  • white registered voters are 81%
  • black registered voters are 14.3%
  • female voters are 51.9%
  • male voters are 47.8%
Again, if registered Democratic voters can continue to be the plurality of early votes via mail-in requests and accepted ballots, we may see a trend that others need to watch very carefully in this year's competitive election, especially for the U.S. Senate seat in the old North State.  

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Update on NC Mail-In Absentee Ballots and Returned Ballots as of 9-17-14

The latest information on mail-in absentee ballots for the 2014 General Election in North Carolina shows over 10,000 ballots have been requested, with 793 (7%) of those returned and accepted as votes.

Ballot requests from registered Democrats continue to be the plurality, with 41%, while registered Republican ballot requests are at 36% and unaffiliated at 22%.

Among female voters (who are 55% of the requested ballots so far), 45% are registered Democrats, 35% registered Republican, and 19% are registered unaffiliated.  Among male voters, 38% are registered Republican, 36% registered Democrat, and 25% registered unaffiliated.

White voters are 82% of the requested ballots, with black voters at 12%. The average age for all requested ballots is 63 years old.

Among returned and accepted ballots, registered Democrats are 45%, registered Republicans are 35%, and registered unaffiliated voters are 19%.

Female voters are 51% of the return and accepted ballots to 48% for men; whites are 80% to 15% for black voters.

Monday, September 15, 2014

Via WFAE's The Party Line blog: Gender Politics in NC's Senate Race

I have a new post up at WFAE's The Party Line blog on gender politics playing out in the Hagan-Tillis Senate match-up.