It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over: Taking the Temperature of the 11th Congressional District Runoff

By Chris Cooper
 

Just when you thought it was safe to turn your attention to the General Election, it turns out there are still two North Carolina primaries left to decide. The first, in Columbus County remains undecided because some voters received the wrong ballot on election day. As a result, The State Board of Elections called for a new Republican primary to take place on June 23 for the Columbus County District 2 Commission race.

The second undecided primary occurred for more traditional reasons: a runoff. Like much of the South, North Carolina election law requires that candidates receive a threshold percentage of the vote to move forward. If the winner of a primary does not meet this threshold (30 percent in North Carolina), the second-place candidate can request a second primary. And, this is exactly what happened in North Carolina’s 11^th congressional district where Lynda Bennett earned the most votes in the Republican primary, but was more than seven percentage points shy of the 30 percent threshold. 24-year old Madison Cawthorn eeked out second place and filed for a second primary. Election Day for this primary will occur June 23, although mail-in and one-stop early voting is already under way.

The circumstances that led to this primary, and the specifics of the candidates in the race are fascinating, but have been covered extensively by local and national reporters. In this spirit of this blog, I’m going to limit myself here to what the early returns can tell us about the candidates and whether early voting tea leaves can uncover anything about understanding elections in a time of Coronavirus. And, although the Columbus County race is fascinating, what follows only reflects returns from the 11^th Congressional District.

The Early Votes Are In--Now It's Down to Election Day Voting in NC's Primary Contests

Now that we have the early votes cast in North Carolina's primary election, a "whopping" 4 percent of the 6.9 million registered voters decided to cast their ballots before today's election.

Among the accepted early ballots, either cast by mail or in-person, Democratic primary ballots were the majority of the state's primary electorate, 59 percent to the GOP primary ballot being chosen by 41 percent of the voters. As a reminder: registered partisan voters can only vote in their party's primary (registered Democrats in the Democratic primary, while Republican registered voters can vote in the GOP primary only), but registered unaffiliated voters can pick one or the other party primary to cast their ballot.

UPDATED: Charlotte's Mayoral Election: Too Close to Call or Repeating Past Democratic Advantages?

11-5-17: Updated to reflect latest NC BoE Numbers for absentee ballots as of November 6, 2017:

While it's an "odd year," elections in America happen every year. But in the Old North State, the major elections in 2017 are at the most local level: mayoral, city council, even school boards. And in the region that I live in, Charlotte's mayoral election has taken on a unique perspective, from what appears by one poll to be a considerably tight race in an urban area that has trended overwhelmingly Democratic in the past few years.

Tuesday's election will focus on Mecklenburg County (by results) and the Charlotte city elections, but with some investigation and data crunching, some early voting trends can be seen within the context of the registered voter pool within the city limits of the Queen City.

Based on the North Carolina State Board of Election's voter registration numbers from Saturday, November 4, the city of Charlotte's total number of registered active and inactive voters is 551,454, with registered Democrats having 48 percent of the pool, registered unaffiliated voters at 31 percent, and registered Republicans with 21 percent (registered Libertarians are barely one percent of the pool and votes being cast, so this analysis will focus on the big three registration factions).

On the Penultimate Day of NC's In-Person Absentee Voting, All Absentee Ballots Hit 2.6M

On the penultimate day of North Carolina's in-person absentee voting period (which ends on Saturday), all absentee ballots have hit 2.6 million ballots, thanks to an additional 232,000 ballots being cast yesterday.

In terms of the party registration and the voting method (whether it is mail-in or in-person), the total pool of absentee ballots (both accepted and still being processing, for example), the breakdown of the 2,663,628 ballots are:

Registered Democrats make up 42 percent of the total absentee ballots so far, with registered Republicans at 32 percent and registered unaffiliated voters at 26 percent.

In comparison to this same day in 2012, the total pool of absentee ballots in the state is 12.8 percent ahead.

In comparison to 2012's party registration break downs among all ballots, registered Democrats are at their 2012 numbers, while registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters are ahead.

Registered Democrats are 0.1 percent behind their numbers from the same day in 2012, while registered Republicans are 12.5 percent ahead and registered unaffiliated voters are 43.3 percent ahead of their same day totals from four years ago.

In terms of the racial composition of all NC absentee ballots, 72 percent continue to be from white voters, with 22 percent from black voters and 6 percent from voters of all other races.

On a daily percentage, however, registered white voters are only 68 percent of yesterday's ballots cast, while black voters were 27 percent and all other races were 5 percent. So the numbers are increasing among black voters, however, they are still down 10 percent from their 2012 same day total numbers with a deficit of over 60,000 ballots compared to 2012. White voters are up 19 percent and all other races are up 51 percent compared to same day four years ago.

In terms of gender of all absentee ballots, women continue to be 56 percent of the absentee ballot pool:

Among female voters, 47 percent are from registered Democrats, 30 percent from registered Republicans, and 23 percent from registered unaffiliated voters. In comparison, male voters are 36 percent registered Democrats, 35 percent registered Republicans, and 28 percent registered unaffiliated voters.

Next, in looking at the total absentee ballot pool, one needs to look at the total accepted ballots so far:

Of the 2.6 million total absentee ballots, 2.5 million, or 97 percent, have been accepted for Tuesday's general election. I move into this category of accepted ballots for the next section.

Accepted Absentee Ballots:

Of these 2.5 million accepted ballots by delivery method (mail-in or in-person), the party registration break down is:

The overwhelming majority of accepted absentee ballots are by in-person, as has been the historic trend in the state.  The analysis now focuses on the in-person accepted absentee ballots.

Accepted In-Person Absentee Ballots:

In comparison to 2012's accepted absentee ballots, this year's accepted in-person absentee ballots of 2.4 million are ahead of the same day four years ago by 16 percent.

Registered Democrats are 43 percent of the accepted in-persona absentee ballots, while registered Republicans are 31 percent and registered unaffiliated voters are 25 percent. In comparing the party registration between this year and four years ago on the same day:

Democrats have met their 2012 same day totals (ahead by 475 ballots), while registered Republicans are 21 percent ahead of their same-day totals from four years ago, and registered unaffiliated voters are 47 percent ahead of their same day totals. This increase in unaffiliated voters is the true wildcard in this election.  The next chart gives an isolated view of the last week of in-person voting by party:

And this chart represents the party percentages each day of the last week of in-person voting by day:

The racial composition of the total accepted in-person absentee ballots shows a slight drop from the 72 percent white to 71 percent, with a slight increase in black voters from 22 to 23 percent. But there are major differences within the party registration by race:

The daily percentages by race for accepted in-person ballots shows this slight uptick in black voters casting ballots this year, but still down from their percentages in 2012 on the same day:

The slight uptick in 'all other races' may be something to watch moving forward as well.

So far, 60 percent of 2016's accepted in-person absentee voters used the same voting method in 2012, but there's a growing percentage over the past few days of new voters and those voters who voted on election day in 2012 (combined account for 33 percent of the accepted in-person ballots so far):

Among the regional, native vs. born out of state, and generational analysis:

Urban voters still have a commanding lead, and registered unaffiliated and registered Republicans from this area of the state are tied in their accepted in-person absentee ballots.

Non-native voters are still 57 percent of the accepted in-person ballots, and registered unaffiliated voters are one percent behind registered Republicans.

And among the generation cohorts within the accepted in-person absentee ballots, Millennial voters are inching their overall percentage of the pool up, to 18 percent today. At the beginning of this week, Baby Boomers were 45 percent of the pool, and now they are down to 43 percent, with voters from the Silent/Greatest generation dropping one percentage point as well.

As with yesterday's post, I have begun looking at the 'turnout' among registered voters in different key categories and see where things stand in terms of the 6.8 million registered voter pool and who has cast accepted in-person absentee ballots so far.

So far, the overall turnout based on the voter registration pool stands at 36 percent. Among the turnout based on race and party registration based on their registration totals:

And the percentages of these groups compared to their total registration figures are:

In comparison to their voter registration 'turnout' rate, black voters have taken a slight edge over white voters, while a greater percentage of registered Democrats have turned out among the party registration. Traditionally, registered unaffiliated voters have a lower voter registration turnout rate than do partisan registered voters in North Carolina.

Among the turnout rates for gender, native vs. non-native born, region, and generation:

In comparison to yesterday's turnout rate, Millennials increased from 19% of their registration pool to 22 percent, while Gen Xers went from 30% to 33% of their share of the voter registration pool.

Finally, in looking at the accepted in-person absentee ballots by region and party registration:

What is interesting is that among unaffiliated voters, urban county voters are a substantial majority from that pool, while among registered Republicans, their majority of ballots is coming from both suburban and rural counties.

Accepted Mail-In Ballots:

Finally, the analysis on mail-in ballots, concentrating on accepted ballots:

Of the 138,000 accepted mail-in ballots so far, this year's total accepted mail-in ballots are only 82 percent of where things stood four years ago on this same day.

Registered Republicans are 41 percent registered Republicans, 32 percent registered Democrats, and 27 percent registered unaffiliated.

In comparison to 2012's same day totals, registered Republicans are at 65 percent of where they were four years ago on this same day, while Democrats are 94 percent and unaffiliated are at 108 percent of where their numbers were on the same day in 2012.

Among the outstanding ballots still remaining:

NC Absentee Ballots Move Ahead of 2012's Same Day Totals

With the expansion of both early voting locations and hours yesterday, North Carolina's absentee ballots (including both mail-in and in-person methods) has moved ahead of the same day totals from four years ago.

A total of 1.3 million ballots have been requested by North Carolina voters, the bulk of which are the in-person ballot method:

In comparison to 2012's same day total of 1,289,930, this represents an increase of 2 percent for this year's ballot totals over the same day four years ago.

In terms of the total ballots by party registration:

(corrected graph to capture Day 12)

Registered Democrats are 44 percent of the total ballots so far, with registered Republicans at 31 percent and registered unaffiliated voters at 25 percent. However, both registered partisan groups are below their same-day totals from 2012: registered Democrats are 7 percent behind, while registered Republicans are 2 percent behind. The surprise this year continues to be registered unaffiliated voters, who are running 32 percent ahead of where they were this same day four years ago.

In comparing the performance among voters by race to 2012's same day totals, white voters continue to over-perform their percentages from four years ago, while black voters are under-performing their same-day percentages from 2012.

Currently, whites are 72 percent of the total ballots, with blacks at 22 percent and all other races/unknown at 6 percent. White voters are 10 percent ahead of where they were from four years ago on this same day, while black voters are 20 percent behind and all other races/unknown are 30 percent ahead of where they were four years ago. An important day may be this coming Saturday for minority voters in North Carolina; more on that just below.

Women continue to be 56 percent of all absentee ballots (both mail-in and in-person):

Of female voters, 49 percent are registered Democrats, 29 percent are registered Republicans, and 22 percent are registered unaffiliated. Among male voters, 39 percent are registered Democrats, 34 percent registered Republicans, and 27 percent registered unaffiliated.

Of these 1.3 million requested ballots, 1.2 million have been returned and accepted as votes for the November 8 general election:

Of the 1.2 million accepted ballots, the party registration break-down is:

Moving on to the bulk of the ballots, in-person, the party registration break-down and performance compared to 2012's same-day totals show advantages to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters.

Registered Democrats are 47 percent of the accepted in-person ballots, with registered Republicans at 29 percent and registered unaffiliated voters at 24 percent.

In the first eight days of in-person voting, registered unaffiliated voters are 35 percent ahead of where they were four years on this same day; not surprising since the majority of new voters coming into the voter pool has been overwhelmingly registering as unaffiliated.

Registered Republicans are 7 percent ahead of their same-day totals for in-person voting, while registered Democrats are 8 percent behind their numbers from four years ago.

The racial composition of accepted in-person ballots by party registration is:

2016's daily percentages of accepted in-person voting, compared against 2012's same-day percentages, demonstrate the lack of black voting participation so far.

This could be attributable to the reductions in key counties, like Guilford, of the first week of early voting to one location and limited hours. The other aspect that this could speak to is a lack of enthusiasm for the Democratic presidential candidate, something that the Clinton campaign is trying to address in visits like yesterday's to Winston-Salem with Michelle Obama. This Saturday's numbers should show a significant boast if the black percentage is to return to nearer its 2012 numbers.

Among the accepted in-person ballot voters, the break-down of whether they were registered in 2012 and, if so, did they vote is:

The number of voters who used absentee in-person voting from four years ago has been slightly dropping over the past week, while new voters (since 2012) has been increasing.

In looking at the patterns among region (urban, suburban, rural counties), native born vs. born-out-of-state voters, and the generational cohorts, all by party registration:

With the expansion of early voting locations and hours, urban counties have bounced back up from yesterday's percentage of 51 to 53 percent of the in-person ballots.

Those voters born out of North Carolina are still dominating the in-person absentee pool.

And Millennials have increased from 13 percent yesterday to 14 percent today, indicating a slight increase in younger voters casting in-person ballots.

Finally, the mail-in ballots are continuing to show the same patterns as the past few days. Registered Republicans are 40 percent of the total mail-in ballots, with registered Democrats at 31 percent and registered unaffiliated voters at 29 percent.

Among the accepted mail-in ballots, Republicans are 41 percent, Democrats 33 percent, and unaffiliated at 26 percent. The accepted rates are 48 percent for Democrats, 47 percent for Republicans, 42 percent for unaffiliated, and 46 percent overall.

However, registered Republicans are significantly behind their 2012 same-day totals for accepted mail-in ballots:

Overall, this year's returned and accepted mail-in ballots are 82 percent of where the numbers stood four years ago this same day, with registered Republicans at 64 percent of their same-day numbers, registered Democrats at 98 percent, and registered unaffiliated voters at 111 percent.