Five Weeks that Felt Like Five Years: Some Reflections on Where We Are and Heading in 2024's Election

By Michael Bitzer

For most academics, summer is a time to decompress and get caught up: on readings, maybe some research, prepping new material for the upcoming academic year's classes. 

That's for most academics. For those of us in political science, especially who study American politics, this notion of a "summer break" has yet to materialize, and as I write this blog entry on July 31, it's likely not going to materialize.

This past month--really since June 27 and the first presidential debate--has felt like it's been five years of news wrapped up in five weeks. And the eight-day stretch from the attempted assassination on former president Trump through the RNC to Biden's bow-out and Harris's juggernaut nomination left a lot of us just gasping for air from all of the 'breaking news.' 

And now, August. 

Was there a "Harris Effect" that Spiked Democratic Party Registration in NC? Evidence After One Week

By Christopher Cooper

As you certainly know, President Joe Biden announced last Sunday that he would withdraw from the 2024 Presidential election and endorse Vice-President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic nominee. By and large, Democrats responded to this news with something that has become a scarce resource in the Democratic Party--excitement. 

Although this feeling of hope is promising for Democrats, there is no Electoral College for excitement and votes don't count more for people who are super-pumped to cast them. For excitement to matter, it must translate to votes.

It's too soon to count votes, so our best early signs of whether Democrats can capitalize on this excitement are fundraising and party registration. There's no question that the Biden-Harris switch has inspired a fundraising bonanza--including perhaps the largest one day haul in U.S. history. 

But what about party registrations? Some evidence suggests that the Biden-Harris switch promoted massive increases in Democratic voter registration--one report indicates that it was the largest two day number of voter registrations this electoral cycle. One week in, is the "Harris effect" evident in North Carolina voter registrations? Using publicly available data, I tried to find out.

About the Veepstakes

by Christopher Cooper

In the last few days, coverage of the veepstakes (the nerdy play on words to describe the battle over who will become Harris' choice for Vice President) has suggested: It's Shapiro or Kelly, it's down to 12, it's down to 8, Mayor Pete is making a move, seems likely to be Beshear, it's Kelly or Walz, Whitmer is out, Whitmer is in, it will be someone with executive experience, and Cooper or Kelly will get the nod. 

It's almost like no one knows.*