Friday, September 23, 2016

NC Requested Mail-In Ballots by Region, Nativism, Generation, and Party Registration

I decided to run some final analyses on today's (9-23-16) NC absentee mail-in ballots that have been requested, most notably by the region of the state (urban county, suburban county, rural county) and party registration.

What struck me was the dominance, this early, by urban county voters using mail-in balloting.


Of the nearly 61,000 requested ballots so far, urban county voters make up 63 percent of the requested ballots, with suburban county voters 17 percent and rural county voters 20 percent.

Here are the party registration percentages for each region:


If one was to make an 'educated guess' about these trends, urban Democrats are most likely pure-party loyalists, meaning that they will likely vote for their party's nominee. Conversely, the legacy of native, rural, conservative Southern Democrats who may be registered Democratic are more likely to be Republican voters. However, the impact of non-native North Carolinians could give more of a sense of 'party-loyalty' based on voter registration (a big if, mind you).

One more set of analysis was the number of native North Carolinians compared against non-native born voters, split by region:


Non-native North Carolinians are two-thirds of the requested 61,000 mail-in ballots so far, and are nearly 70 percent of the urban county voters requesting ballots. Not surprising is that the closest 'region' based on native vs. non-native are rural counties.

Two more: here is the breakdown by generations and regions:
And then by party registrations and regions for native vs. non-native NC voters who have requested mail-in ballots:

It will be interesting to see if this trend of non-native North Carolinians continues at such a high percentage over the next few weeks. 

I'll post something tomorrow morning before taking the weekend off and be back on Tuesday with Monday's requests and processing. 

Some quick additional analyses of 9-23-16 NC accepted mail-in ballot voters

Ran some further analyses of the 9-23-16 North Carolina accepted mail-in ballots (total = 5,426) and whether these voters had shown up in 2012 and their voting methods that year.

The following graphs show the over numbers and voting methods (and if they didn't vote), the party registration for each, and the generational cohort:




Nearing the end of the first 2 weeks of NC mail-in ballots

As North Carolina nears the end of the first two weeks of mail-in absentee balloting, the trends that we have seen develop over time have pretty much stabilized and continue on pace.

Again, a word of caution: while registered Democrats have the lead in both requested and returned/accepted ballots, this may not mean that these are reliable, bankable Democratic votes. North Carolina has a legacy of the Southern conservative registered Democratic voter being in registered name only, while casting their votes for Republican candidates.

That being said, here are the overall numbers of ballots broken down in various 'status' categories (the first line that is blank indicates ballots still outstanding):


Of the total number of ballots sent out, 35 percent are from registered Democrats, 35 percent from registered Republicans, 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters, and less than one percent from registered Libertarians.

Of the ballots returned and accepted as votes, 41 percent are from registered Democrats, 35 percent from registered Republicans, 24 percent from registered unaffiliated voters, and less than one percent from registered Libertarians.


However, both registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters are overperforming their same-day cumulative totals in comparison to 2012's numbers: registered unaffiliated accepted ballots are 167 percent of their same-day totals four years ago, registered Democratic accepted ballots are 153 percent of same-day totals from four years ago, and registered Republican accepted ballots are 93 percent of their same-day totals from 2012.


Finally, in looking at the outstanding mail-in ballots yet to be returned, an even divide exists between registered partisans, with nearly 30 percent from unaffiliated voters.


Tomorrow's numbers will include today's (Friday, Sept. 23) process ballots. As noted in the 2012-2016 comparison data, by this point in the mail-in balloting process, registered Republicans had taken the lead in accepted ballots and held that throughout the remaining. The next trend to watch for is when that occurs this year; there seems to be a continue 'enthusiasm' level among certain blocks of voters to 'bank their ballots', and over the weekend, I'll be trying to decipher how these voters (if they were registered and voted in 2012) cast their ballots.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

9-22-16 Update on NC Mail-In Absentee Ballots: More of the Same

As of 9-22-16's numbers from the NC State Board of Elections, the absentee mail-in ballots continue the trend of what we have seen since the start of voting in North Carolina, both in total requests and accepted ballots.

Nearly 60,000 mail-in absentee ballots have been requested, with 4,419 returned and accepted as votes for the general election. Of the requested ballots, 36 percent were from registered Democrats, 35 percent from registered Republicans, 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters, and less than 1 percent from registered Libertarians.

Of the ballots that have been returned and accepted as votes for the November election, the daily tracker of accepted ballots by party registration is:


As of today, 41 percent are from registered Democrats, 34 percent from registered Republicans, and 24 percent from registered unaffiliated voters. If compared to 2012's same-day in both the total accepted numbers and party registration:


The total accepted ballots this year are 103 percent of what we saw in 2012 at the same day, with registered Democrats 126 percent of where they were on the same day four years ago, registered unaffiliated voters are 137 percent of where they were same-day four years ago, and registered Republicans are 74 percent of where they were on the same day four years ago.

Of the outstanding mail-in ballots in North Carolina, the party registration breakdown is:


Typically, registered Republicans had taken the lead in accepted ballots and ultimately were the plurality in mail-in ballots. The over-performance by registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters in comparison to their numbers of 2012, and the under-performance by registered Republicans, may change moving forward, but the trend seems to be developing to something that we will need to watch closely.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Updated NC Absentee Mail-In Ballots as of 9-21-16

As of 9-21-16, nearly 57,000 absentee mail-in ballots had been requested for North Carolina's general election. Out of that number, a little over 3,500 have been returned and accepted as ballots cast, with nearly 53,000 still outstanding and eligible to be returned and reviewed to be accepted as ballots. 
Of the 3,500 accepted ballots, those coming from registered Democrats are still leading (a note/reminder: just because party registration indicates one party does not indicate the likelihood of the individual voting that party, due to the nature of Southern conservative rural Democrats (most likely older voters) being more Republican voters than their own party).


Among the accepted ballots, 41 percent are from registered Democrats, 34 percent from registered Republicans, and 25 percent are from registered unaffiliated voters.

In comparison to 2012's same-day party registration totals (the total is 99 percent of the same day from four-years ago), registered Democrats are at 119 percent of their same-day total from 2012, registered unaffiliated voters are 136 percent from four years ago, and registered Republicans are 70 percent of their total voters from 2012.


Registered Democrats are over-performing their 2012 patterns, both by leading their numbers and continuing to lead in the overall numbers. By this point in 2012, registered Republicans were leading the mail-in absentee balloting and would continue to do so for the remainder of the accepted mail-in balloting.

Among the outstanding ballots remaining, the party registration breakdown is:


Tuesday, September 20, 2016

NC Absentee by Mail-in Ballots as of 9-20-16

With the first full week of absentee by mail-in (early) ballots being cast by North Carolina voters, the start of the second full week has brought the continuation of an interesting trend.

So far, as of 9-20-16, 54,098 mail-in ballots have been requested, with 2,939 ballots returned and accepted as ballots for the general election.


Of the ballots returned and accepted so far:


Compared to the same day four years ago, total ballots accepted are 110 percent, with registered Democrats at 129 percent, registered unaffiliated voters at 142, and registered Republicans at 82 percent of where their numbers were in 2012.


An interesting aspect in comparing this year's numbers against the 2012 trend: at this point, registered Republicans took the lead in mail-in accepted ballots and held that lead up to Election Day. This year, registered Democrats still have the lead, by a little over 200 accepted mail-in ballots.

Updated & reminder: just because 'registered Democrats' seem to be leading does not equate to straight Democratic voters. North Carolina still has an undetermined amount of old-line Southern conservative Democrats who may still be registered with the party, but likely are Republican voters at the ballot box. If I had to hypothesize, then I would say that group is within the Silent/Greatest generation and the older Baby Boomer generation; I would surmise that those Gen Xers and Millennials who register with a party affiliation are truer supporters of that party allegiance, while those who are registering 'unaffiliated' tend to be 'independent but leaners' per national surveys and research on independents. 

Of the over 50,000 outstanding ballots, the division between registered party affiliation is:



Sunday, September 18, 2016

Did NC 2016 Mail-In Ballot Voters Participated in 2012?

As we await the updated numbers from the NC State Board of Elections and the 100 counties about the mail-in absentee ballots requested and received (on Tuesday, due to mail from the weekend and processing the bulk on Monday), some further information on the voters who have requested NC mail-in ballots.

I was curious what this year's voters, who have requested mail-in ballots in 2016, did in 2012: did they vote four years ago, and if they voted, how?

Of the 50,000 plus ballots requested through 9-17-16, I matched the history of these voters of when they registered (pre- or post-2012) and if they voted in 2012, how they voted.


Then, breaking these numbers into percentages, we find the 50,000 voter pool who have requested mail-in ballots with their 2012 activity to be the following:


Finally, I looked at the group who registered after 2012 (28% of the 50K plus mail-in ballot requests as of 9-17) and broke that group by their current party registration:

Of course, we only have a week of mail-in ballot requests and even more importantly, of accepted ballots, so far, but it seems like there is an interest in 'banking one's vote' earlier this year, considering that less than 1/3 of the voters requesting mail-in ballots this year did the same last year. Another such analysis of the second week of mail-in balloting will be useful to see if these trends hold.