Friday, August 1, 2025

It's Show Time in NC: Whatley vs. Cooper for the U.S. Senate

By Susan Roberts

    As my colleagues at the ONSP Blog have written and observed, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race will turn out to be hugely expensive, perhaps the most expensive in the country if history repeats itself. One of many questions to ask is: are the candidates diametrically opposed and in what ways? Here are some ways that I’m considering how this critical race will play itself out heading towards November 2026.

The Midterm Cycle Divide

    Characteristics of midterm elections are widely recognized. Turnout is routinely lower, while voters of higher socioeconomic classifications tend to dominate. In general, mid-term voters are most often strong partisans and highly attuned to politics. Most political scientists, journalists and pundits would agree that midterms can be seen as a referendum on presidential performance, measured primarily by the number of seats won or lost by the party of the sitting president. 

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Excerpt from forthcoming "Almanac of American Politics" on North Carolina

Special Contribution from Louis Jacobson:

For more than five decades, the Almanac of American Politics has set the standard for political reference books. In September, the Almanac will be publishing its 2026 edition, with more than 2,000 pages offering fully updated chapters on all 435 House members and their districts, all 100 senators, all 50 states and governors, and much more.

Below are excerpts from the new chapters in the 2026 Almanac on the state of North Carolina and Gov. Josh Stein, written by Louis Jacobson. Jacobson — a senior correspondent for PolitiFact, a senior columnist for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, and a contributor of political coverage for U.S. News & World Report — has written for eight editions of the Almanac since 2000. For the 2026 edition, he served as chief author.

Readers can receive a 15% discount if they purchase the new Almanac at its website and use the code ONSP2026 at checkout. 

NORTH CAROLINA:

Few states have more political polarization between rural and populated areas than North Carolina does—and few states have margins between the two major parties so consistently narrow. But for several election cycles running, Republicans have come out ahead in federal races, although in 2024 Democrats put up stronger performances in downballot races.

Monday, July 28, 2025

Now That Roy's Runnin'...What's His Electoral Coalition Like?

By Michael Bitzer

In the midst of this heat wave, things are officially heating up in North Carolina politics. 

This morning, former Democratic governor Roy Cooper finally put to bed all the speculation and anticipation by formally announcing his run for the open U.S. Senate seat in the Old North State. 

Much analysis will be made over the coming days, weeks (heck, even months to November 2026), but I thought I would add to the discussion the "Cooper-electoral advantage": the strengths he appeared to demonstrate in 2016 and 2020 and that many Democrats hope he brings to 2026.