Sunday, October 30, 2016

As of 10-30, NC Absentee Ballots Hit 1.7M and Are Ahead of 2012's Same Day Numbers

An abbreviated version of today's posting: all North Carolina absentee ballots have hit over 1.7 million, with nearly 1.6 million accepted as early votes for the November 8 general election (12:15 PM: updated with new information found below).

All Absentee Ballots:

The 1.7 million ballots, which accounts for all absentee ballots (mail-in and in-person) by sent date, represents a 6.8 percent increase over the same-day cumulative total from 2012's general election absentee voting period (1.59 million). 

Currently, registered Democrats are 43 percent of all ballots, with registered Republicans at 31 percent and registered unaffiliated voters at 25 percent; but there are differences in the voting method.

In comparison to the pool of registered voters in North Carolina, registered Democrats and registered Republicans are over-performing their registration numbers (Democrats at 40 percent and Republicans are 30 percent of the registered voter pool), while unaffiliated voters are under-performing their voter registration pool percentage (30 percent).

However, there are differences between the party registration within this total absentee ballot pool in comparison to four years ago on this same day.

Registered Democrats are 4.2 percent behind their same day 2012 total numbers, while registered Republicans are 4.5 percent ahead of their numbers. Registered unaffiliated voters are 36.9 percent ahead of their same day all absentee ballot totals from 2012. 

White voters are currently 72 percent of all absentee ballots cast, with black voters being 22 percent and all other races 6 percent. This represents a steady continuation of the trends that we have seen, with white voters over-performing their 2012 numbers and black voters under-performing their 2012 numbers.

Updated: some have asked about the "all absentee ballots for white voters by party registration" to see if the trend lines are still comparable to 2012's percentages of white voters by registered party. Here is the information updated to today based on all sent ballots:

Back in 2012, the cumulative total percentages for white voters was 46 percent registered Republican, 31 percent registered Democrat, and 23 percent registered unaffiliated.

Today, the percentages are 42 percent Republican (only ahead of 2012's same day numbers by 4 percent), 30 percent Democratic (but ahead of their 2012 same day numbers by 10 percent), and 28 percent unaffiliated (but these white voters are ahead of their 2012 same day numbers by 40 percent).

In looking at differences based on gender, female voters still make up 56 percent of all absentee ballots so far:

Among female voters, registered Democrats are 48 percent, registered Republicans are 29 percent, and registered unaffiliated are 23 percent. Among male voters, registered Democrats are 38 percent, registered Republicans are 34 percent, and registered unaffiliated voters are 28 percent.

Among all the absentee ballots so far, the returned status of the ballot are:

Of the 1.7 million absentee ballots, nearly 1.6 million have been accepted, with registered Democrats at 44 percent, registered Republicans at 31 percent, and registered unaffiliated voters at 25 percent.

All Accepted Absentee In-Person Ballots:

The vast majority of accepted ballots--nearly 1.5 million--are in-person ballots, with 45 percent from registered Democrats, 30 percent from registered Republicans, and 25 percent from registered unaffiliated voters.  So far, the total accepted absentee in-person ballots are 10 percent ahead of where things stood four years ago:

The return status of in-person ballots are:

While there are more ballots than four years ago, of the accepted in-person ballots so far, registered Democrats are slightly behind their 2012 same-day totals (down 4 percent), while registered Republicans are ahead (14 percent) and registered unaffiliated voters are well ahead (41 percent) of their same day numbers from four years ago.

Finally, the daily percentages of the accepted in-person ballots by party registration for the back half of the in-person early ballot period, compared to 2012's daily percentages, are:

Among racial percentages of in-person ballots accepted, here's by party and the daily percentages by race for the first ten days:

In 2012, black percentage of the in-person accepted ballots was 30 percent; this year, it was only 23 percent, perhaps a major factor in why the overall black percentage continues at 23 percent of all in-person early ballots, while in 2012 it ended at 29 percent.

Another update: there are three areas that I am interested in: regionalism in North Carolina (meaning, the differences between urban, suburban, and rural voting patterns), native-born vs. born out of state, and generations. Here are today's updated charts for these three areas:

Urban voters continue to dominate this year's numbers, as they did in 2012, though four years ago, when in-person absentee voting finished, urban county voters were 57 percent of the ballots; among those urban county in-person ballots, registered Democrats were 52 percent.

Unfortunately, the birth state information isn't available for the 2012 numbers, so no comparison can be made, but the fact that non-native voters are a significant majority is an interesting trend.

Finally, among the generations, Baby Boomers continue to be a significant plurality of voters; in 2012's final in-person absentee ballots, Baby Boomers were 41 percent of the ballots.

Mail-In Absentee Ballots:

The cumulative totals of mail-in ballots still lags behind 2012's over numbers for the same day (2016's numbers are 82 percent of where things stood in 2012):

This is due mostly to registered Republicans not at their same numbers from four years ago, even thought they still lead in percentages (41 percent to 32 percent Democratic and 26 percent unaffiliated):

The comparison to 2012's same day totals by party shows the stark differences:

Finally, outstanding ballots (roughly 101,000) are still from registered Republicans, but that pool is starting to shrink over the past few days:

I hope to have some more analysis later tomorrow. Today's absentee voting, by in-person, will be another key test, especially with the likelihood of "Souls to the Polls" activities across the state.