This blog post appears at WFAE's The Party Line and includes the graphics for the 2012 general election that was not included there.
In their rather blunt assessment of the debacle
that was the 2012 election, the Republican National Committee came to a simple
conclusion: we can’t continue down the path we’re currently on and remain
political relevant.
In particular, the report acknowledged that “[y]oung voters
are increasingly rolling their eyes at what the Party represents, and many
minorities wrongly think that Republicans do not like them or want them in the
country. When someone rolls their eyes at us, they are not likely to open their
ears to us” (page 4).
With North Carolina being the closest state that the GOP
presidential candidate won in 2012 and that continues to be a battleground
presidential state, the Republicans should also look more in-depth at these two
voting blocs to see what specifically they are up against in future electoral
contests.
In the 2012 general election, voters who were 18-25 years
old made up 10% of the ballots cast, while those 26-40 were 22%, those 41-65
were 48%, and those 66 and older were 20% of the ballots cast.
Granted, 10% of the total electorate isn’t that much, but
considering that Romney won this state by only 2% out of 4.6 million votes
cast, GOP and Democratic strategists should investigate their
perspectives.
If you look at the party registration figures within these
various age groups, you will find the reason why GOP is bringing new resolve to
attracting younger voters.
For those voters who entered the political realm in 2012,
barely a quarter of them were registered Republicans. Among the next age group, registered
Republicans were tied with registered unaffiliated voters, which should be a
worrisome sign for the Grand Old Party.
Within the youngest voter bracket, the party registration
figures between white votes and non-white voters show a devastating difference
between the two groups.
Only 4% of non-white voters were registered Republicans, in
comparison to non-Hispanic/Latino white voters, a plurality (42%) a plurality
of whom were registered Republicans.
Granted, we would expect Southern white voters to lean
Republican, but the groups that are experiencing the largest growth in
population, and soon to be electoral strength, are non-white voters.
In breaking down non-white voters casting ballots, we would
expect black voters to be overwhelmingly registered Democrats, and the numbers from
last year’s general election show that 81% of 18-25 year old black voters were
registered Democrats, with 17% being registered unaffiliated. Only 2% of young
black voters were registered Republicans.
Among the other key demographic group, Hispanic/Latino
voters, registered Democrats made up nearly half of each age group, but as you
go from older to younger Hispanic/Latino voters, the percentage of registered
Republicans drops from 25% to 13%.
If your party can’t even get a growing population to
register with your party, how do you expect them to vote for your part? The only saving grace for the GOP among NC
Hispanic/Latino voters is the fact that 38% of young voters are registered
unaffiliated, and so they may be open to future persuasion.
But if the national party choose to continue its current
trajectory, that of being overwhelmingly white and older, it will work its way
into minority status at the national level.
Andrew Kohut, former president of the Pew Research Center,
has written that the Republican Party has found itself “estranged
from America.”
According to the Pew Research Center, a plurality of GOP
(45%) identify themselves as “staunch conservatives,” and of these Republicans,
92% are white. This group is also male,
Protestant, and at least 50 years old.
And among this significant
group within the GOP, the animosity to President Obama and the view that
the growing number of Latinos in America is a “change for the worst” may not
allow the party move its message into one that is more welcoming to minorities
and young voters.
As I’ve noted before, North Carolina’s new status of
presidential battleground state may offer the national GOP a chance to roadtest
a new message to appeal to a broader swath of the electorate. But if the members behind the party refuse to
accept the “new message,” it doesn’t matter how many Facebook pages, tweets, or
other social media initiatives the party develops.
Nationally, the Grand Old Party could continue to find
itself the “not-so-Grand and very Old white Party.”
