A Softening, But Not a Flip: North Carolina's Partisan Identification Shifted Late in 2025

By Michael Bitzer

With 2025 concluded and the start of what will be an intense 2026, I was reviewing the past year’s Catawba College-YouGov surveys of North Carolinians (1) to see what interesting patterns or trends occurred over the year.

One thing that stood out to me (because of its potential implications for electoral volatility in a presidential-to-midterm transition year) was a fairly consistent pattern of the state’s partisan identification—that is, until the final survey of 2025.

As part of a standard set of questions asked in each Catawba-YouGov poll, respondents can initally say what their partisan identification is: Democrat, Republican, Independent, other, or not sure. Another question asks for the respondents’ ‘strength’ of their initial partisan identification, meaning for partisans ‘are you strong or not very strong’ in your identity, while among those who initially say they are ‘Independent,’ do they lean to one party or the other, or do they consider themselves a ‘pure’ independent.

Starting with the first Catawba-YouGov Survey in August 2024, the partisan self-identifications of the surveys showed a pretty consistent pattern over the past year, until the last survey.

Figure 1: Catawba-YouGov 2024-2025 Surveys with initial partisan identifications among North Carolina Respondents.

'Tis the Season: The 5 Most Important Stories from North Carolina Politics in 2025

by Christopher Cooper

There are year-end lists for everything—music,1 books, architecture, sports, longform journalism, and, of course, politics. So, why not one more?

Here’s my take on the five most important North Carolina politics stories from 2025. I selected stories that tell us something bigger about the state of our politics, and will matter long after 2025 comes to a close. Is this “the” definitive, list? Absolutely not—I encourage you to read and listen to others. But these five stories all have long-term implications for how we understand North Carolina politics.

Some Thoughts on One of the Titans of NC Politics: Former Democratic N.C. Governor Jim Hunt

By Michael Bitzer

News of the passing of former North Carolina Governor Jim Hunt came as I was driving home yesterday. Stuck in rainy traffic on I-85, I had time to reflect on the impact of this titan of North Carolina politics—one of two politicians who shaped not just the final decades of the twentieth century in this state, but whose legacy continues nearly a quarter-century after his last days in elected office.

During the 1960s and 1970s, North Carolina—and the once Solid Democratic South—was undergoing profound political transformation, as were the nation’s two major parties. Unlike many other Southern states (save Tennessee), North Carolina had long experienced a measure of political competitiveness. From the beginning of the twentieth century through its midpoint, the state featured a dominant Democratic Party alongside a meaningful Republican opposition, largely concentrated in the upper northwestern mountain counties and extending into the central Piedmont.

Why Campus Voting Sites Matter: The Case of Western Carolina University

by Christopher Cooper

The Jackson County (NC) Board of Elections is deciding whether to keep the early voting site at Western Carolina University. 

Thanks to the NCSBE, we have a wealth of information about voting and elections in North Carolina so I decided to analyze a bit of it and see what it reveals about the effectiveness of the site--and what might happen if it's eliminated. 

 You can find it here: https://chriscooperwcu.substack.com/p/why-campus-voting-sites-matter-the

 

 

The Election Season is Officially Here in NC

by Christopher Cooper

Yesterday marked the beginning of candidate filing for the 2026 election in North Carolina.

In many ways, the next two weeks will be more interesting and consequential than election day itself.

I wrote a little bit about why that's the case here:

 

https://chriscooperwcu.substack.com/p/the-election-season-is-officially

Last Week in Redistricting

by Christopher Cooper

Last week was a doozy of a week in redistricting news. I posted a quick rundown of the highlights here: 

https://open.substack.com/pub/chriscooperwcu/p/last-week-in-redistricting

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Looking Back at the Nov. 2025 Elections (& A Few Other Things)

By Christopher Cooper

On November 4, I wrote a short piece looking forward to election day, 2025 in North Carolina. In days since the election, I’ve participated in a few forums about what happened (see, for example, this one hosted by Political Scientist and all around good guy Michael Bitzer), which have given me the opportunity to think a little more systematically about what happened and what it might mean. 

I posted five takeaways that I feel relatively confident in at this early stage at the Anatomy of a Purple State Substack: 

https://open.substack.com/pub/chriscooperwcu/p/looking-back-at-the-nov-2025-elections

The 2025 Canary in the Coal Mine Turned Blue

By Michael Bitzer

Many will say that 2025’s odd-year election is just that: odd. But for those of us trying to consider what the mid-term election cycle (officially underway as of today, Nov. 5) will portend, the canary in the coal mine has turned blue. Very blue.

Political scientists and knowledgable observers know that mid-term elections tend to be referendums on the president and the president’s party—especially when that party is in control of Congress.

But the 2025 elections point towards a pretty incredible shift in Democratic fortunes from just one year ago.

The wins in Virginia and especially in New Jersey (which felt like momentum heading into Tuesday was pointing to a much closer race than a 13-point blowout) show the referendum is clear: Trump and Republican policies.

What Are The Odds of a Tied Election Today? Higher Than You Might Have Thought

by Christopher Cooper

Municipal Elections are confusing. I tried to cut through the mess to find some patterns--including the odds of a tied election, which are higher than you might have thought. Here's what I found: 

https://chriscooperwcu.substack.com/p/its-municipal-election-day-in-nc?r=4drr8&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true 

Also, if you haven't, make sure to read Michael Bitzer's enlightening piece on today's elections in Charlotte, you're one click away from solving that problem:

https://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2025/11/happy-municipal-election-eve.html 

Happy Municipal Election Eve!

By Michael Bitzer

With all the national attention Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City are getting for their campaigns and elections, this is just a gentle reminder that in 88 counties across the Old North State, elections in 447 municipalities are happening as well.

In the largest metro area to me, Charlotte has a slate of mayoral and city council contests, along with what appears to be a hotly (but could be decided overwhelmingly) sales tax referendum on the ballot.

In thinking about the significant shift of major metropolitan areas in recent decades, Charlotte gives us a prime example of what Democratic dominance looks like at the electoral level.