2010 in NC: tidal wave or rip tide?

Now that the dust appears to be settling on the 2010 mid-term elections and before we start analyzing for the 2012 presidential election, let’s take a look at what all this might mean.

Observation #1: it wasn’t just the Tea Party, but independents as well. The exit polls seem to indicate a double-whammy for the party-in-power. While voters who identify with both major parties went back to 2004 norms, it was the ideological composition of the electorate that really stood out.

For the past three elections, the ideology of the U.S. electorate remained stable—20% of US voters identified themselves as liberals, 44 to 47% identified as moderates, and 32-34% identified as conservatives. This year, conservatives ran their percentage up to 41, while moderates dropped to 39. Early analysis may indicate that there were just more conservatives out there who showed up, while moderates (read independents) stayed home. But you have to look at party identification as well to make that judgment.

U.S. voters who identified themselves as Republicans went from 37% of the electorate in ’04 to 32% in ’08, reflecting disenchantment with the GOP. This year, that number rebounded to 36%, tied with the Democratic percentage, leaving 28% identifying themselves as “independent.” But again, it was independents who made the difference, and they split 60/40 to the Republicans. More on that later.

Observation #2: what happened to North Carolina’s competitive congressional districts? We thought all along that the endangered species, commonly known as Southern conservative Democrats, would be wiped out this year. Yes, South Carolina’s John Spratt was taken out, but Larry Kissell, Mike McIntyre, and Heath Shuler all survived. The surprise of the night came with Democrat Bob “Who are you!” Etheridge in the second congressional district. So maybe the Republican wave didn’t hit North Carolina as hard as we thought at the federal level, but a rip current did have an effect at the state level.

Observation #3: the rip tide pulled the N.C. General Assembly to the GOP. It was the undercurrent of the Republican wave—most identified with Rowan County’s own 77th House District—that is the biggest news coming out of 2010. Classic swing districts like the 77th are prone to being caught up in dramatic wave elections, but this one also pulled out a number of Democrats in “lean Democratic” districts in the state house and senate. So, for the first time in 112 years, the GOP has complete control the North Carolina General Assembly.

And if there’s one election that every political party wants to win every ten years, they will always take the one that occurs in a year ending in zero: because they get to redistrict.

With the power of redistricting, or redrawing the lines of the game, a political party can create “winnable” districts for their party and protect their incumbents, while at the same time making it difficult, if not impossible, for the minority party to regain majority status. In North Carolina, with the exception of getting the federal government’s approval, it’s in the hands of the GOP to redraw the lines of competition—and they will do it for their benefit. Thus, to the victor go the spoils, and this year’s spoil is gerrymandering.

One more observation: 2010 was the third “change” election we’ve seen. While Republicans had a good evening, especially at the state and local level due to mobilization and straight ticket voting, my crystal ball is giving an early hint to 2012: change may come again. If issues and concerns aren’t addressed, the American electorate (read: independents) is very willing to swing around until they find someone or some party that will address their concerns. In 2008, independents went 60/40 for Democrats—this year, they went 60/40 for Republicans. If neither party steps up to address issues, be careful of the swing in 2012.

Is North Carolina Micro-America?

So here's the political landscape: a widely-unpopular chief executive who has a unified party control of the legislature. A moody electorate where the opposition political party is energized, the middle is irritated, and the controlling political party is apathetic and perhaps demoralized. A number of legislative seats are up for grabs, and political analysts (like me) are saying that one of the legislative chambers will flip to control by the opposition.

Sound familiar? No, I’m not talking about national politics—it’s North Carolina politics, and the situation that the Democrats find themselves in at the national level is just as evident at the state level of government as well.

First, some basic facts about Tar Heel state government: Democrats control the Governor’s Mansion and the General Assembly—in the NC House of Representatives, it’s a 68-52 majority, while in the NC Senate, it’s a 30-20 split. So Democrats have the most to loose, and Bev Perdue’s lack of popularity (only 35% approve, according to a PPP Poll) is akin to President Obama’s favorability (or lack thereof) rating. So there’s one similarity between Raleigh and Washington.

Second, like in the U.S. Congress, the vast majority of seats are “safe” for one party or the other—meaning that right now, I could safely predict that 20 Democrats and 19 Republican NC Senate candidates will return to Raleigh. That’s pretty close, figuring you need 26 for the majority (maybe a few more might help). Factor in three Senate seats that will most likely flip from Democratic to Republican control (one of them is David Hoyle’s seat in Gastonia, the other two are in the mountains), and you’ve got Republicans close to the magic number to control the NC Senate.

Out of eight “toss-up” seats that are left, two are Republican control (count those in the Republican column this year), and the other six Democratic-controlled seats have 3 “open” seats. These are critical, because even in a year like this, it’s better to have an incumbent in swing districts than someone the voters don’t know very well.

So, if you were to bet on a potential Republican take-over this year in the legislature, look to the NC Senate—it would be the first time Republicans controlled the upper chamber since the end of the nineteenth century.

For the NC House, it’s again a matter of “safe” seats dominating (Democrats controlling 55 seats, Republicans controlling 52 seats out of the 120 total) and a handful of “swing” seats that will determine who controls the lower chamber. Right now, Democrats have more “swing” districts to defend, with two of those seats being open. There is a possibility that when Nov. 2nd’s dust settles, we could see a potential 60-60 tie again (see 2002 for what happens next), or one party has a bare 61-59 control of the House.

Third, the “generic” ballot indicates that Republicans are up over Democrats, much like on the national scene. The GOP is benefiting from solid support from its base and the favor of independents, even though Democrats make up 48 percent of registered voters in the state.

Overall, the state-level political scene is a lot like the national scene—and it’s only going to result in more gridlock leading up to 2012.