Thursday, October 16, 2014

Republicans Expand Their Requested Ballot Lead, But Democrats Maintain Their Accepted Lead

Registered Republican voters in North Carolina have expanded their lead in mail-in absentee ballot requests, while registered Democrats have maintained their lead in returned and accepted mail-in absentee ballots.

Among the nearly 53,000 requested ballots sent out so far:

  • Registered Republicans are 41 percent of the requested ballots
  • Registered Democrats are 36 percent of the requested ballots
  • Registered unaffiliated voters are 24 percent of the requested ballots
  • Women are 56 percent
  • White voters are 83 percent
  • Black voters are 12 percent
Among the 11,226 returned and accepted ballots (21 percent of the requested) that will be counted on November 4:

Among these returned and accepted ballots:

  • Registered Democrats are 41 percent
  • Registered Republicans are 37 percent
  • Registered unaffiliated voters are 22 percent
  • Women are 54 percent
  • White voters are 83 percent
  • Black voters are 13 percent
An interesting dive deeper into the data shows an interesting pattern regarding age of these mail-in voters.  While the mean age of requested ballots is 61 years old, there is variation within party registration when broken by age ranges (these age ranges are the classification done by the NC State Board of Elections, with 18-25 years old, 26-40, 41-65 and over 66).

It is not surprising that registered Democrats and Republicans tend to skew older, but among unaffiliated voters, 25 percent of their requested ballots are from voters under the age of 40, compared to 16 and 14 percent respectively for registered Democrats and Republicans.

Among those voters who have returned their ballots and had them accepted so far, 16 percent of registered unaffiliated voters are under 40, while only 12 and 10 percent of registered Democrats and Republicans (respectively) are.