By Michael Bitzer
One month into the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, North Carolinians have grown more negative in their views of President Donald Trump, according to a new Catawba-YouGov survey. A plurality say the U.S. was wrong to attack Iran, and as the Pentagon signals a potentially prolonged conflict with ground operations, a strong majority oppose deploying troops.
The survey also finds that Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley in the early horserace numbers for the U.S. Senate election, 48 percent to 34 percent among likely voters (including those who initially said they were undecided but lean toward a candidate), with 14 percent undecided.
By Christopher Cooper
Phil Berger has spent more than a decade and a half as the most powerful politician in North Carolina. Last week, he conceded that he lost his primary election to challenger Sam Page by 23 votes—a loss that has been called a political “earthquake” and covered by national press, including the New York Times.
North Carolina political insiders are positively apoplectic about what may come next. But you can be forgiven if you're still unsure why this is such a big deal. It is a state senate race, after all.
by Christopher Cooper
We just finished the 2026 primaries in North Carolina. And, while the major storylines are about the outcomes, we should take note of the people who didn’t make the headlines: election administrators.
That’s as it should be. Election administration is a profession whose measure of success is when they’re invisible. Perhaps no better example of their success—and their importance—came during Hurricane Helene in Western North Carolina.
By Michael Bitzer
From Vietnam to Iraq to more recent military engagements, the balance of war-making authority between Congress and the president has been a recurring point of conflict in American politics. The Constitution divides this power—giving Congress the authority to declare war while making the president commander-in-chief—but in practice the boundaries between the two branches have often blurred. A recent survey of North Carolinians shows that while the institutions may clash, public opinion still leans strongly toward maintaining the constitutional balance.
In a previous post on North Carolinians and their opinions regarding war powers, it was noted that “nearly three-quarters of North Carolinians say presidents should seek congressional authorization before engaging the U.S. military,” according to the Catawba-YouGov Survey conducted in August 2025.
This is one of the many shared powers between the legislative and executive branches of government, which many Americans know as “checks & balances” (political scientists tend to use the phrase ‘separate institutions (of government) sharing power’, in this case, the war making power).
By Michael Bitzer
With continuing U.S. military action involving Iran, the question of who should authorize military force—the president or Congress—has once again returned to the forefront of American politics.
But where do North Carolinians stand on the division of governing authority over war powers?
In August 2025, the Catawba-YouGov Survey posed a series of questions about governing authority and constitutionalism to 1,000 North Carolinians.*
Among the governing authorities and powers in the U.S. Constitution, Article 1, Section 8 states “The Congress shall have Power…To declare War … To raise and support Armies…(and) To provide and maintain a Navy.” In Article 2, Section 2, the Constitution states “The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States….”
In the survey, respondents were asked the following question:
How important is it that the president must seek authority from Congress to engage the U.S. military against another nation?
by Christopher Cooper
We’re a week out from the 2026 Primary in North Carolina, and the dust is settling — slowly. We still don’t know who won the most consequential legislative race in the state and we won’t know who actually showed up to vote until canvass closes and the voter history file drops. But with a little distance, a few things are coming into focus.
By Michael Bitzer
It’s an extremely early morning after the North Carolina primary election and making sense of what happened last night requires some initial thoughts, followed by (surprise, surprise) the official results and data to analyze.
But here are some way-too-early reactions to what we saw in last night’s returns.
With all due deference to the U.S. Senate nomination contests, the real race of the evening was the N.C. State Senate District 26 Republican nomination battle between the most powerful GOP official for the past 15 years, Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger, and his home county sheriff and bête noire Sam Page.
When all the precincts reported and the results still unofficial, Page bested Berger by two votes.
by Christopher Cooper
Today, North Carolina, Texas, and Arkansas kick off the 2026 primary season. But no state better illustrates the collision between nationalized politics and intensely local battles than North Carolina. Here are a few tools to get you ready for what’s happening in the Old North State.
By Michael Bitzer
Before a single Election Day ballot is cast, North Carolina’s 2026 primary has already told us something important.
Early voting totals have surpassed both the 2022 midterm primary and the 2024 presidential primary at the same point in the calendar. That alone makes this cycle notable. But the real story is not simply about aggregate numbers — it is about who is voting, which ballot they are pulling, and how those choices compare to recent cycles.
The top-line figure suggests heightened engagement. Yet beneath that surface lies a far more revealing set of dynamics: a Democratic primary outperforming recent benchmarks, an unusually strong Unaffiliated tilt toward the Democratic ballot, and a geographic pattern that reinforces the state’s now-familiar urban–suburban–rural divide.
By Michael Bitzer
With just days left before early voting ends in North Carolina, one thing is clear: the trends discussed earlier this week aren’t fading—they’re holding and accelerating. And they point to one unmistakable development—a pronounced Democratic turnout advantage that has yet to show signs of narrowing.
As North Carolina’s early voting gets closer to the last day (ending on Saturday at 3 PM), through Wednesday, 2026 turnout is running 29 percent ahead of the comparable point in the 2022 midterm primary and 9 percent ahead of 2024’s presidential primary. That latter comparison is particularly notable given that presidential cycles typically drive higher participation—even if 2024 featured little Democratic competition at the top of the ticket.
by Christopher Cooper
Few places tell the story of the Democrats' decline better than the rocky, densely forested land known as Appalachia.
It’s not that the parties have flipped in Appalachia—it’s that the Republican strength in the region has become more entrenched and the Democrats are largely shut-out. The Republicans have long been ahead, but today they’ve left the Democrats in the dust.
By Michael Bitzer
Through the first 10 days of early voting, North Carolina’s 2026 primary electorate is not just ahead of past cycles—it is potentially reshaping expectations about which party is energized, who is participating, and how they’re voting.
In daily totals1, 2026 is standing out as a remarkable primary election so far—33 percent ahead of the 2022 mid-term primary early voting (on the same date) and 16 percent ahead of 2024’s primary early voting.
Last Thursday (February 12, 2026) marked the beginning of in person early voting in North Carolina. So, where do we stand and what should we watch?
By Michael Bitzer
One of the interesting things I found in the generic ballot questions in last month’s Catawba-YouGov Survey was a consistency of voter intentions across the five contests asked (U.S. Senate, U.S. House, N.C. Supreme Court, N.C. State House, and N.C. State Senate).
As noted in the release, Democratic candidates generally received about 45 percent of the vote to Republicans receiving 38 percent, with less than 15 percent undecided.
But when looking at the partisan identification, we see some distinctiveness when it comes to voter intention. Take for example the U.S. Senate generic ballot contest (broken into “definitely/likely voting for Democratic candidate vs. undecided vs. definitely/likely voting for Republican candidate”1): we see clear partisan loyalty among those who self-identify as Democratic and Republican, while those who said they were ‘independent’ are more divided, but lean towards one party.
by Christopher Cooper
North Carolina’s 2026 early voting plans for the primary election, which determine when, where and how easily North Carolinians can cast their ballots before election day, are now set and the final list of sites is posted to the North Carolina State Board of Elections web site.
What does the 2026 primary plan say and how does it compare1 to previous years?2
by Christopher Cooper
Five states—New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, and North Carolina—are battling for the coveted first slot on the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primary calendar, hoping to gain the power and attention that comes with it.1
While some of these states, like Iowa and New Hampshire, represent the usual suspects, North Carolina is a newcomer to this battle for first.
North Carolina has a lot of advantages as a first state. It’s a purple, growing and diverse state with a large number of urban, suburban, and rural voters. It’s proximate to the Washington, DC press corps and has multiple media markets. As a bellwether for the country, you could do a lot worse.
While this might appeal to the national Democratic Party, North Carolina should let other states duke it out. The first slot would bring power and attention, but the financial costs and voter confusion aren't worth it.2
by Christopher Cooper
Sometime today, the first mail ballots for the 2026 primary were sent out to North Carolina voters, marking the official beginning of the 2026 elections.
If this seems early, that’s because it is. North Carolina, Arkansas, and Texas hold their elections on March 3—the first in the nation. North Carolina sends out the first match of mail ballots 60 days before the election, whereas Texas and Arkansas wait until 45 and 46 days before the election, respectively. In person early voting begins in North Carolina on February 12, four days before Arkansas and five days before Texas.
No matter how you slice it, the 2026 election election begins in North Carolina. And it begins today.
Over the last few weeks, two internal polls have made news in North Carolina politics. The first purported to show President Pro-Tempore of the North Carolina Senate, Phil Berger down by ten percentage points to Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page in the Republican primary for Senate District 26. The second (released today) showed Democrat Jamie Ager up one percentage point against Republican Chuck Edwards in the General Election for North Carolina's 11th congressional district
Please ignore those internal polls. Please also ignore the ones that will inevitably come from their opponents that offer a different look.
Regardless of whether those results reinforce or challenge your preferred outcome, they are not giving you reliable information, nor is that their goal. Their release is intended to help their candidate. I don’t blame the candidates or their campaigns for releasing these polls. It’s smart politics.
And, if you follow elections solely as a window into palace intrigue, or as a way to reinforce what you want to be true then, by all means, have at them. But, if you follow politics and elections news to get a better understanding of how we are governed, then paying attention to internal polls will do you more harm than good.3
I wrote about this back in 2022 when an incumbent member of Congress named Madison Cawthorn released an internal poll showing him with a commanding lead in the Republican primary—the very same primary he ultimately lost.
Rather than re-hashing all of this again with new examples, I'll point you to the 2022 post on this blog. The names may have changed, but rationale remains.
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Dr. Christopher Cooper is the Madison Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Public Affairs and Director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University
by Christopher Cooper
Normally, the weekly voter registration updates on the North Carolina State Board of Elections are met with a collective shrug from all but the most dedicated, data oriented, and dorky observers of the state’s politics.1
There have really only been three notable exceptions to that rule: September 2017 when Unaffiliated crossed Republican to become the second largest group of registered voters in the state, March 2022 when Unaffiliated became the largest number of registered voters in the state and yesterday when, for the first time in the state’s history, registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats in North Carolina.
In October I wrote a piece for The Assembly about this shift—what it means and why it matters. I encourage you to read it in the context of what just happened.2 Some primary things to keep in mind are:
By Michael Bitzer
With 2025 concluded and the start of what will be an intense 2026, I was reviewing the past year’s Catawba College-YouGov surveys of North Carolinians (1) to see what interesting patterns or trends occurred over the year.
One thing that stood out to me (because of its potential implications for electoral volatility in a presidential-to-midterm transition year) was a fairly consistent pattern of the state’s partisan identification—that is, until the final survey of 2025.
As part of a standard set of questions asked in each Catawba-YouGov poll, respondents can initally say what their partisan identification is: Democrat, Republican, Independent, other, or not sure. Another question asks for the respondents’ ‘strength’ of their initial partisan identification, meaning for partisans ‘are you strong or not very strong’ in your identity, while among those who initially say they are ‘Independent,’ do they lean to one party or the other, or do they consider themselves a ‘pure’ independent.
Starting with the first Catawba-YouGov Survey in August 2024, the partisan self-identifications of the surveys showed a pretty consistent pattern over the past year, until the last survey.
