Saturday, October 22, 2016

Over Half-A-Million Absentee Ballots Requested in NC

With the second full day of absentee by in-person voting and concluding the sixth week of absentee by mail-in voting, over 500,000 ballots have been requested, with over 381,000 accepted as votes for the November 8th general election.

Among the total ballots requested for both in-person and mail-in:

Among those ballots returned and accepted:

For the total ballots and different voting methods, the party registration breaks down as:

In comparison to four years ago, the total number of absentee ballots (both mail-in and in-person) is down about 3 percent (501,651 compared to 2012's cumulative total of 513,188 on the same day out from Election Day), but there are significant shifts in party registration numbers within those totals.

Registered Republicans are down 15 percent from their same day numbers, while registered Democrats are down six percent. However, registered unaffiliated voters are up 27 percent from their same day totals over four years ago. 

The overall absentee by in-person voting method numbers are:

Among the accepted absentee by in-person voting method, the first two days worth of ballots is slightly below where the second day in 2012 stood, down about 2 percent (157,395 in 2012 compared to 152,778 this year).

For comparison to the party registration of absentee in-person voting to 2012:

On day 2 of this year's in-person early voting, 49 percent came from registered Democrats, 27 percent from registered Republicans, and 24 percent from registered unaffiliated voters. Cumulatively so far, registered Democrats are 51 percent of the early in-person ballots, registered Republicans are 26 percent, and registered unaffiliated voters are 23 percent. In comparison to the same day in 2012 totals, registered Democrats are down 10 percent, registered Republicans are down 6 percent, and registered unaffiliated voters are up 28 percent. 

In looking at the total in-person ballots by race:

In comparison to the final numbers in 2012 early in-person balloting, white voters are a greater percentage than they were four years ago, while black voters are down from their 2012 same-day numbers:

Among the voters who have cast in-person early ballots, the following shows their 2012 voting method and if they were registered in 2012 or after:

In looking at gender by party registration of the early in-person ballots:

Among the early in-person ballots, 55 percent are from female voters, with registered Democrats being 60 percent, registered Republicans 23 percent, and registered unaffiliated being 21 percent.

Among the generations for these early in-person voters and their party registration:

A majority of North Carolinian registered voters indicate that they were born out of state versus being native to the state, and the trend is reflected in the early in-person ballots so far as well:

Finally, urban county voters are a majority of the in-person early ballots cast, with registered Democrats dominating that region of the state:

Among absentee mail-in ballots, we are at the end of the sixth week of those method of absentee/early voting, with nearly 183,000 ballots requested and over 63,000 ballots returned and accepted for votes.

Among the requested ballots, 40 percent are registered Republicans, 31 percent registered Democrats, 28 percent registered unaffiliated, and less than one percent are registered Libertarians.

In comparison to four years ago on the same day, this year's mail-in ballots are at 79 percent of the total, with significant differences among party registration in comparison to 2012's trend lines:

The racial composition of those NC voters requesting mail-in ballots is predominately white:

Among the returned and accepted mail-in ballots so far:

While registered Republicans are running ahead in accepted ballots, they are significantly behind their 2012 same-day numbers (59 percent of where they were on the same day in 2012), while registered Democrats are even with their 2012 same-day numbers and registered unaffiliated voters (at 107 percent) are ahead of their same-day 2012 numbers.

Finally, the outstanding mail-in ballots are still favoring registered Republicans: