It's Show Time in NC: Whatley vs. Cooper for the U.S. Senate

By Susan Roberts

    As my colleagues at the ONSP Blog have written and observed, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race will turn out to be hugely expensive, perhaps the most expensive in the country if history repeats itself. One of many questions to ask is: are the candidates diametrically opposed and in what ways? Here are some ways that I’m considering how this critical race will play itself out heading towards November 2026.

The Midterm Cycle Divide

    Characteristics of midterm elections are widely recognized. Turnout is routinely lower, while voters of higher socioeconomic classifications tend to dominate. In general, mid-term voters are most often strong partisans and highly attuned to politics. Most political scientists, journalists and pundits would agree that midterms can be seen as a referendum on presidential performance, measured primarily by the number of seats won or lost by the party of the sitting president. 

Excerpt from forthcoming "Almanac of American Politics" on North Carolina

Special Contribution from Louis Jacobson:

For more than five decades, the Almanac of American Politics has set the standard for political reference books. In September, the Almanac will be publishing its 2026 edition, with more than 2,000 pages offering fully updated chapters on all 435 House members and their districts, all 100 senators, all 50 states and governors, and much more.

Below are excerpts from the new chapters in the 2026 Almanac on the state of North Carolina and Gov. Josh Stein, written by Louis Jacobson. Jacobson — a senior correspondent for PolitiFact, a senior columnist for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, and a contributor of political coverage for U.S. News & World Report — has written for eight editions of the Almanac since 2000. For the 2026 edition, he served as chief author.

Readers can receive a 15% discount if they purchase the new Almanac at its website and use the code ONSP2026 at checkout. 

NORTH CAROLINA:

Few states have more political polarization between rural and populated areas than North Carolina does—and few states have margins between the two major parties so consistently narrow. But for several election cycles running, Republicans have come out ahead in federal races, although in 2024 Democrats put up stronger performances in downballot races.

Now That Roy's Runnin'...What's His Electoral Coalition Like?

By Michael Bitzer

In the midst of this heat wave, things are officially heating up in North Carolina politics. 

This morning, former Democratic governor Roy Cooper finally put to bed all the speculation and anticipation by formally announcing his run for the open U.S. Senate seat in the Old North State. 

Much analysis will be made over the coming days, weeks (heck, even months to November 2026), but I thought I would add to the discussion the "Cooper-electoral advantage": the strengths he appeared to demonstrate in 2016 and 2020 and that many Democrats hope he brings to 2026. 

Summer Heat Meets Campaign Heat in the Old North State

By Michael Bitzer, Susan Roberts, and Christopher Cooper

To say that the world of NC politics has been abuzz with news in the past 24 hours is like saying "it's summer...so it's hot in the Old North State." An understatement, to say the least. 

On July 23rd, press reports started with Axios, later confirmed by other outlets, that former N.C. governor Roy Cooper has decided to run for the U.S. Senate, a major 'get' for Democrats in what is likely one of the most competitive races for the 2026 mid-term.

The next morning had Politico reporting Lara Trump was out, but Michael Whatley, RNC chair, was in, with Trump's blessing. 

This sets up what everyone had been expecting: a potential clearing of primary field on both sides (at least expected) with two titans running for a coveted open-seat election. Here's our initial "3 Big Thoughts" as we digest and think about this epic contest:

Big Takeaways from Catawba-YouGov Poll on the Principles of American Democracy

By Michael Bitzer

Much has been made about the state of our polarized and divided politics, and if anyone needs a potential case study of that environment, one could look no further than the Old North State. But what about the core ideas and principles of American democracy: are North Carolinians as divided on the fundamental concepts of our democracy as we are in terms of public policies and pure partisanship? 

The Catawba-YouGov Survey polled 1,000 North Carolinians in June about their attitudes regarding various principles of American democracy: governing authority, civic participation, and rights & liberties (the links go to the spreadsheets for each category and the crosstab data).

In doing so, I wanted to explore what the levels of importance (very or somewhat important) that North Carolinians would place on critical components to the notion of self-governance. While I wasn’t sure what would be a sufficient number to say North Carolinians agreed on these democratic principles (ideally, all principles would garner 100 percent importance), I set the bar at principles garnering 80 percent (or higher) saying it was important as demonstrating a sense of agreement. Those principles that were between 60 and 80 percent show some critical differences when it comes to democratic values and ideas. 

While there were some stark differences over key principles and ideas to a democracy, 39 of the 51 principles garnered at least 80 percent of North Carolinians saying the principle was important. Obviously North Carolinians--and particularly partisans--believe that there are a significant majority of core principles of American democracy that are important to our civic health.

However, there were some fundamental issues regarding the importance of some democratic principles: a quarter were below 80 percent of North Carolinians rating them as important, most notably among rights & liberties. 

An Analysis of Registration Recovery Project Voters

by Christopher Cooper

The North Carolina State Board of Elections recently unveiled the Registration Recovery Project (RRP), which includes more than 100,000 North Carolina registered voters. As part of an ongoing project, I thought I'd take a look at the characteristics of these voters to learn more who is on the RRP list, who has their registration "cured" and the demographic and partisan patterns of both.

You can find the most recent iteration of this analysis in a pdf below. The first 5 pages (the analysis of the original lists) remains the same as the original report. The sections titled "Changes since the original list" and "who is curing their registration?" are updated once a week. 

• Aug 26th update

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Dr. Christopher Cooper is Madison Distinguished Professor and Director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University. His book, Anatomy of a Purple State, was recently published by the University of North Carolina Press.

NCians' Opinions on Their Confidence in President Trump's Decision-Making

By Michael Bitzer

The latest Catawba-YouGov survey findings are out on the confidence North Carolinians have (or not) in President Donald Trump's decision-making on seventeen different policies and issues.

You can find the survey results and a breakdown of data at: https://catawba.edu/news/all-news/2025/yougov-7/

Don't Sleep on the 2025 Elections

 by Christopher Cooper

The 2026 storylines are already consuming those of us who pay attention to American politics, and I get why. Will Lara Trump run? Will Roy Cooper run? Will Phil Berger get primaried? Those are some compelling storylines--arguably even more compelling than who will be the next town commissioner in Webster, NC.

But, I encourage citizens, politics watchers, and even political scientists not to sleep on the 2025 municipal elections in North Carolina. As exciting as the storylines above are, the outcome will likely affect your life less than who wins the local elections your community in 2025. 

So, let's take a look at what's happening in 2025--which offices are open, who's eligible to vote, and why does it matter?

North Carolinians' opinions on FEMA Recovery Funding

By Michael Bitzer

In North Carolina, many western counties are still rebuilding and trying to get their lives back to 'normalcy' following the devastation of the September 2024 path of Hurricane Helene through many of the mountain communities.

On January 24, 2025, just days after being sworn into office, President Trump visited the NC mountains and said “I’ll be taking strong action to get North Carolina the support that you need to quickly recover and rebuild. We’re working on it very hard…” (see 7:48 of this video of the press conference). 

However, a federal decision not to fully reimburse the recovery efforts has garnered wide-spread attention. A note: FEMA's decision was not to fully fund recovery efforts by the federal government at 100 percent, but rather continue funding at 90 percent. 

Nine months after Helene's impact, the June 2025 Catawba-YouGov survey asked 1,000 North Carolinians the following:

"Do you approve or disapprove of FEMA’s decision to not extend 100%, but instead provide 90%, of federal matching reimbursement for North Carolina’s spending on Hurricane Helene debris removal and emergency protective measures for western North Carolina?"

Thom Tillis and the Painful Truth About Swing State Politics

 by Christopher Cooper

What does North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis' retirement announcement tell us about the politics of swing states? I took a stab at answering that question in this piece for Politico Magazine.

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Dr. Christopher Cooper is the Madison Distinguished Professor of Political Science & Public Affairs and Director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University. His most recent book is Anatomy of a Purple State: A North Carolina Politics Primer.