"A Sea of Red with a Bright Blue Dot Right in the Middle": The Politics of Western North Carolina

Dr. Chris Cooper of Western Carolina University talks with Spectrum News 1's "Capital Tonight" about the politics of Western North Carolina, which encapsulates "a real mix of worlds" including the "ripsters," the rural hipsters, the sense of being closer to other states' capitals than their own, and what we might expect from the youngest U.S. Representative from the mountain's 11th Congressional District.

"North Carolina Mountain Counties." Image courtesy of the
North Carolina Department of Public Instruction.

 

Washington Post "Made by History" Blog Piece: Even if Georgia turns blue, North Carolina may not follow

by Michael Bitzer

One of the first Catawba graduates I had the pleasure of working with when I arrived at the college was Virginia Summey, who has since received her Ph.D. in history and teaches at UNC-Greensboro. She and I co-authored a piece that looks at North Carolina's 'battleground' status and what the state's modern political history might tell us, especially in relationship to the newcomer battleground state of Georgia.

You can access the piece at the Washington Post's "Made by History" blog. 

County Commissions in North Carolina: A Brief Review of Trends in Partisanship, Gender & Race

by Chris Cooper

It surprisingly difficult to keep track of all of the elections in North Carolina. Sure, most interested citizens know that Roy Cooper and Thom Tillis were re-elected. Many are probably aware that the Republicans maintained majorities in the General Assembly and some (the type of folks who read this blog) may even be aware of the results of the Council of State and the statewide judicial races. Unless you’re buried deep in the weeds, however, you’re unlikely to know much about what happened in the County Commission races outside of perhaps your home county.

 

The Fate of Appointed Senators

By Charles S. Bullock, III

The runoffs for Georgia’s two Senate seats are attracting national and even international attention since, for the first time in history, the outcome of a delayed selection process will determine which party controls that chamber.  Georgians are selecting two senators because of a partial term that must be filled.  

This is not the first time that the Peach State has chosen a senator to complete a term.  Since the 17th Amendment shifted senator selection from the state legislature to a vote by the public, five previous midterm vacancies have occurred beginning with Senator Augustus Bacon’s death in 1914.

How a Senate vacancy gets filled varies among states.  In Georgia, the governor appoints a fill-in who serves until the next regularly scheduled election.  

Our Post-Election 2020 Analysis Vlog

Now that the "final" calls on various states have been made (but some NC races are still too close to call), the four of us gathered for our post-Election 2020 vlog where we breakdown some key takeaways and preliminary insights, and what we want to study some more about this consequential campaign season. 

Check us out on Youtube:

Or, if you want to listen as a podcast, check us out on SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/michael-bitzer-622617495/old-north-state-politics-post-election-2020-podcast 

5 Things I Think I Know About the 2020 Election in North Carolina

By Chris Cooper

The election is over. Well, mostly. Sure, the President hasn’t conceded, we will have recounts for a variety of offices in North Carolina, there might be some litigation (it is North Carolina after all), and we don’t have individual level data on who voted (for that, we have to wait for the holy grail of North Carolina politics, The Voter History File, to be updated). Despite these significant limitations, there are a few conclusions that I feel (fairly) safe to make at this admittedly premature stage.

Five Take-aways from North Carolina's 2020 Same Day Registrations

By Chris Cooper

Note: This originally posted on November 2, 2020. 4,727 additional SDRs were processed and included in the November 3 data update. I updated the graph and data in number 1 below to account for the new data. The other points stayed constant. 

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North Carolina citizens who are not registered to vote can complete "same day registration" throughout the early voting period (which ran from Oct 15-Oct 31 this year). Normally I'd throw a strained metaphor and a throat-clearing lead to try to hook you in, but given the volume of election coverage and everyone's declining patience, I'll just get to it. Here are five few quick take-aways from patterns in this year's same day registration data.   

2020's Election Is All But Done...Except for Tuesday's Voting and Counting

By Michael Bitzer

The nation, and North Carolina, have finally arrived at this point: just two days before the final votes are cast in Election 2020, and then the counting begins on what is shaping up as a historic election, by pretty much any standard.

The level of early voting--with estimates of over 90 million ballots cast nation-wide before Tuesday, November 3--is certainly one for the record books, and especially in North Carolina's period of early voting, made up of both absentee by mail and absentee onestop, which most refer to as 'early voting in-person.' 

According to the U.S. Election Project, as of Sunday, Nov. 1., two-thirds of all the votes cast in 2016 have been already submitted in the 2020 election. 

In North Carolina, 2020's early ballots are 95 percent of all the votes cast in 2016, which equates to nearly 62 percent of the 7.3 million registered voters having already voted as we head into Tuesday's general election. It would only take another 238,000 voters to match 2016's total ballots cast; that 238,000 would be just 3 percent of the current 7.3 million, equating to 65 percent voter turnout. 

If past presidential election years are any indication, we should see registered voter turnout at least 69 percent:

In a realistic scenario, North Carolina could be looking at a low to mid-70 percent turnout rate when the polls close Tuesday night; meaning, anywhere from a potential 725,000 to 943,000 voters could show up on November 3, and that would give the state either a 72 or 75 percent registered voter turnout rate this year. 

So, here are a number of data points about what we know about NC's early votes, who has cast ballots so far, and what we should expect come Tuesday's final voting. Be prepared for a deep data dive into the numbers. 

How many North Carolinians have early voted?

Episode 3 of the Old North State Politics Vlog/Podcast

Welcome to the third episode of the Old North State Politics vlog, along with a podcast version.

On this episode, we spend some time talking about Election 2020, where we've been (exhausted) and where we may be headed (hopefully to a quick resolution post-Tuesday). 

If you want to watch the video, you can click below or go to YouTube and watch it there.

And if you want to listen to it as a podcast, check out the episode on SoundCloud. 

Here's What We're Thinking About for November 3rd

Instead of a traditional run-down on the presidential and gubernatorial contests, the four of us decided to take a slightly bigger picture, and pose a series of questions about "what we're thinking about when November 3rd finally rolls around?" Here are some of our thoughts about what to be looking for and thinking about on the night the polls close; we didn't coordinate our questions and answers among ourselves, so if there's repetition, it's a pretty good bet that the topic is something worth considering very strongly. And yes, we could potentially disagree with each other, but we'll let the readers try and figure that aspect out.