North Carolinians' opinions on FEMA Recovery Funding

By Michael Bitzer

In North Carolina, many western counties are still rebuilding and trying to get their lives back to 'normalcy' following the devastation of the September 2024 path of Hurricane Helene through many of the mountain communities.

On January 24, 2025, just days after being sworn into office, President Trump visited the NC mountains and said “I’ll be taking strong action to get North Carolina the support that you need to quickly recover and rebuild. We’re working on it very hard…” (see 7:48 of this video of the press conference). 

However, a federal decision not to fully reimburse the recovery efforts has garnered wide-spread attention. A note: FEMA's decision was not to fully fund recovery efforts by the federal government at 100 percent, but rather continue funding at 90 percent. 

Nine months after Helene's impact, the June 2025 Catawba-YouGov survey asked 1,000 North Carolinians the following:

"Do you approve or disapprove of FEMA’s decision to not extend 100%, but instead provide 90%, of federal matching reimbursement for North Carolina’s spending on Hurricane Helene debris removal and emergency protective measures for western North Carolina?"

Thom Tillis and the Painful Truth About Swing State Politics

 by Christopher Cooper

What does North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis' retirement announcement tell us about the politics of swing states? I took a stab at answering that question in this piece for Politico Magazine.

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Dr. Christopher Cooper is the Madison Distinguished Professor of Political Science & Public Affairs and Director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University. His most recent book is Anatomy of a Purple State: A North Carolina Politics Primer. 

So Long to Four of North Carolina's Political Parties. Who Were They, Anyway?

by Christopher Cooper

On June 19, 2025, the North Carolina Board of Elections announced that, following North Carolina General Statutes, the Constitution, Justice for All, No Labels, and We the People parties would be terminated and all of the registrants registered with each of those parties would be reassigned to Unaffiliated status on June 24. The Green, Libertarian, Democratic and Republican parties will remain, as will the largest group of registered voters--the Unaffiliated.

As today is the last day of their existence (at least for now--they can always come back in the future--the Jim Palmer of party politics, if you will), it seemed like a good time to take stock of who was registered with these soon to be extinct political parties.

Democrats' Long Shot Hope in the Mountains

Could the congressional district that launched the careers of Madison Cawthorn and Mark Meadows be Democrats' best hope to pick up a seat in 2026? The math is daunting but some think it's not out of the question, as I explained in this piece in The Assembly. 

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Dr. Christopher Cooper is the Madison Distinguished Professor of Political Science & Public Affairs and Director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University. His most recent book is Anatomy of a Purple State: A North Carolina Politics Primer. 

How confident are North Carolinians in their elections?

By Michael Bitzer

With the appointment by the state auditor of three Republicans and two Democrats to the N.C. State Board of Elections, Republicans now control the state's election administrative agency. 

In the announcement of the three Republican appointees (two new and one currently serving on the Board), Auditor David Bolick stated "We need full confidence in our elections..." and that "(m)anaging our elections is no small task. It takes time, dedication, and professionalism." 

Catawba College and YouGov polled North Carolinians regarding their confidence in elections, specifically asking in August 2024*, "Regardless of whether your candidate or party wins or loses the election this November in North Carolina, how confident will you be in the safety, security, and integrity of the election in North Carolina?" and then in January 2025* asked, "Regardless of whether your candidate or party won or lost the election in North Carolina, how confident were you in the safety, security, and integrity of the election in North Carolina?"

Both surveys also asked the respondent's level of confidence in votes being counted in their county and in North Carolina. Each question used "very, somewhat, not too much, or not at all" when asking about confidence or not regarding votes being accurately counted. 

NC Data Points: North Carolinians’ Confidence in Elected Policymakers

By Michael Bitzer

In the March 2025 Catawba-YouGov Survey of 1,000 North Carolinians*, respondents were asked to express their level of confidence in a variety of policy makers, from the president down to local county boards of education. Beyond the president, most policymakers saw a mix of responses regarding confidence in their decision-making. 

In responding to “How confident are you in the decision-making capabilities of the President?,” 43 percent said not very or not at all confident, while 41 percent said very or somewhat confident, with 17 percent expressing a neutral response. But as with most prominent political topics, partisanship is a key drive of confidence, or lack thereof. 

The Democrats Don't Have a U.S. Senate Candidate in NC Yet. Is This Out of the Ordinary?

 by Christopher Cooper

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina promises to be one of the most hostly contested U.S. Senate election--and possibly the most hotly contested election period--in 2026. The incumbent Republican Thom Tillis has come under fire from his own party and, not surprisingly, from the Democrats as well. 

While I don't believe that Tillis is likely to lose the primary, the outcome of the General Election is much more unknown. The party of the President always loses seats in the midterm year and Tillis is the only Republican incumbent Senator up for re-election in a purple state.

The only problem for the Democrats: they don't have a candidate yet.

NCians divided over Trump, believe tariffs will be impactful on prices

By Michael Bitzer

We've been fairly quiet here at Old North State Politics, but it doesn't mean things haven't been happening. In February, Catawba College and the Carter Center hosted the final meeting of the Commission on the Future of NC Elections, which released a 200-page report on eleven different aspects of what it takes to run an election in the state. I hope you'll find time to read and digest the important information from it. 

And in other news: Catawba just released the findings of a new YouGov survey of 1,000 North Carolinians, which the press release is reprinted in this post. In the survey, we asked a number of current issues and news items to garner a sense of North Carolina's public opinions, as have many other survey outlets as well. 

In this survey, North Carolinians shared their opinions about:

• The approval/disapproval of President Trump, U.S. Senator Tillis, Governor Stein, and the Political Parties in Congress
• What North Carolinians believe will be the impact of potential tariffs on goods
• How inflation and costs are envisioned going into the future
• The firings of government employees in 14 different departments/agencies
• The suspension of military aid to Ukraine
• What should be the top priorities for North Carolina’s state government

I've include some charts to demonstrate the division in North Carolina opinion, especially based on partisan self-identification. 

There will be more data and findings released from this survey in the near future as well. 

Why Thom Tillis Shouldn't Worry about the Primary

 by Christopher Cooper

There's been a lot of attention about the potential for Thom Tillis to get primaried. In a piece for the Assembly, I explain why that's unlikely to happen.  

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Dr. Christopher Cooper is the Madison Distinguished Professor of Political Science & Public Affairs and Director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University. His most recent book is Anatomy of a Purple State: A North Carolina Politics Primer. 

The 2024 Election in the U.S. South

 

by Christopher Cooper

In recent decades the United States South has emerged as the most rock-ribbed Republican region in the country, but the 2020 election brought signs that the Republican stranglehold might be loosening. In those elections, Joe Biden won two southern states: Georgia and Virginia. In addition, voters in Georgia sent Democrats to the US Senate, and Democrat Roy Cooper was re-elected as governor of North Carolina. With the 2024 elections now behind us, what do the results tell us about the Democratic Party’s appeal in the US South?

 Gibbs Knotts and I addressed this question in the London School of Economics United States Politics and Policy blog and we thought some of the readers of Old North State Politics might be interested. Please check it out.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2025/01/29/the-2024-elections-how-the-democrats-hopes-were-dashed-in-the-us-south/ 

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Dr. Christopher Cooper is Madison Distinguished Professor and Director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University. His book, Anatomy of a Purple State, was recently published by the University of North Carolina Press. H. Gibbs Knotts is Provost and Professor of Political Science at Coastal Carolina University. His most recent book (co-authored with Jordan Ragusa) is First in the South: Why South Carolina's Presidential Primary Maters.

Analysis of Voters Challenged by Justice Griffin Part II

 by Christopher Cooper

On January 13, 2025 I wrote an analysis of the partisan and demographic patterns of the approximately 60,000 North Carolinians whose ballots are being challenged by Justice Griffin because of" incomplete voter registration." That analysis can be found here.

Since then, Justice Griffin has filed a brief with the North Carolina State Supreme Court where he outlines his case in more detail, along with his preferred remedy. In that brief, he explains that, in addition to the 60,723 voters with "incomplete voter registration," that I analyzed before, he is focusing his challenge on two additional groups of voters: (1) 267 "never residents" and (2) 5,509 "overseas voters without photo ID." 

As a result, I wrote an analysis of these groups of voters--available here. 

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Dr. Christopher Cooper is Madison Distinguished Professor and Director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University. His book, Anatomy of a Purple State, was recently published by the University of North Carolina Press.

An Analysis of Challenged Voters in the 2024 NC Supreme Court Justice Election

 by Christopher Cooper

As the fight over approximately 60,000 challenged ballots in North Carolina's Supreme Court Election makes its way through the legal system, I thought it might be helpful to take a look at the challenges to determine whether (and if so, how) challenged voter differ from the overall pool of people who cast a vote in November, 2024 in North Carolina.

Because the analysis includes a lot of tables that can look wonky when put into blogger, I put them in a pdf (accessible here). 

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Dr. Christopher Cooper is Madison Distinguished Professor and Director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University. His book, Anatomy of a Purple State, was recently published by the University of North Carolina Press.