by Christopher Cooper
On January 15, 2025, Andy Nillson announced that he would be a Republican candidate for United States Senate. On August 9, he suspended his campaign, noting that President Trump's "complete and total" endorsement of Republican Michael Whatley, "played a central role" in his decision.
Two weeks earlier, Democrat Wiley Nickel suspended his campaign for the Democratic side of the United States Senate race just a day after former Governor Roy Cooper entered the race.
Although all of these changes may seem odd (why would you declare and then pull out?), it's all completely normal. People routinely come in and out of candidacy at this point in the campaign season as part of what political scientists refer to as the "invisible primary." As distinct from the actual primary where voters have a direct say, no votes are cast in the invisible primary and the voters themselves may have no say so at all.
That shouldn't imply that the invisible primary isn't competitive--it is. And, it can be fairly cutthroat. Candidates are quietly competing for all sorts of behind the scenes advantages. Endorsements, quality campaign consultants, and high dollar donors are all limited.
For example, once Donald Trump has given his endorsement to a candidate in any given race, he can't give it to another--hence, Andy Nillson's decision to withdraw. If candidate A has lined up the contract from one of the major consultants in the state for their party, running for office may become a lot less attractive to candidate B. And so on. The kerfuffle surrounding a Democratic Party gala in the 11th congressional district also demonstrates just how contentious the invisible primary can be.
As a result of this behind the scenes jockeying for position, candidacy, a concept that you might think is fairly black and white (you either are a candidate or you aren't), is actually a lot more complicated than it may seem at first blush.
Instead of thinking about candidacy as an all or nothing thing (you're either running or you're not), it's helpful to think about candidacy as having four components--(1) the campaign apparatus, (2) the announcement (3) registering a campaign committee (4) filing for office. Candidates may have various combinations of these four components, but until they have completed the fourth, they're free to withdraw their candidacy at any time. And, if they don't have the first three, they may technically be a candidate, but they may not be a very serious one.
- By the campaign apparatus, I mean the trappings that traditionally go with running a quality, professional campaign. These include paid campaign consultants, a web site, social media accounts, etc. If the candidate doesn't have a campaign apparatus in place, they may end up on the ballot and garner a few votes, but it's a sign that they are unlikely to be taken seriously as a candidate.
- The announcement comes in various ways, but usually it comes with a speech, a video, a press release, or perhaps all three. These kind of pseudo events gives journalists a reason to cover the candidate, do an early profile of them and their campaign, etc
- To run a professional campaign, the candidate will, of course, need money. And, before they can collect donations (above a certain amount) they need to file a campaign committee with either the FEC (for federal office--see here for an example) or the NCSBE (for state offices in NC--see here for an example). The most professional campaigns generally time all three of these components to go live at the same moment. Think about Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley's entrance to the US Senate race--when they made the announcement, they were ready to go with a full campaign apparatus and ready to accept donations.
- Even if a candidate does all of the above, they will not appear on the ballot unless they have filed as a candidate with the State Board of Elections. That process doesn't even start until December 1 in North Carolina (it ends on December 18) and it starts much later in most other states.
The necessity of all four components isn't just theoretical. As I mentioned at the top, we've had at least two candidates for U.S. Senate (Andy Nillson and Wiley Nickel) who had a campaign apparatus, an announcement, and had filed with the FEC. Both suspended their campaign (a fancy way to say they pulled out) 3 and a half months before filing even opened.
In North Carolina's 11th congressional district, Marcus Blankenship had a web site and made a few speeches as a candidate, but recently announced that he had withdrawn his candidacy before ever filing with the FEC, to say nothing about the NCSBE. Another candidate, Paul Maddox, signed a letter as a candidate for office, but has not filed with the FEC and, as far as I can tell doesn't have a web site or any other campaign apparatus.
Even after a candidate has cleared the primary, there are still ways for them to withdraw and have the party select a replacement before the General Election. And, of course, all of this is even more complicated for Unaffiliated candidates (see chapter 8 of Anatomy of a Purple State)
So, when you see that someone has declared as a candidate for office, remember that nothing is final until they have filed to have their name on the ballot. And, even that isn't really final.
Such is the power of the invisible primary.
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Dr. Christopher Cooper is Madison Distinguished Professor and Director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University. His most recent book, Anatomy of a Purple State, is available from the University of North Carolina Press.
