By Michael Bitzer
As I'm teaching U.S. Campaigns & Elections this semester, I always try to relate my research interests into material for class, and this fall's class is no exception.
Recently, a student asked the great question for 2024: "what will NC's electorate look like this November?"
And I said, "well, I wish I knew--as does every campaign strategist and candidate. But here's what we know, based on 2020's electorate and where we are now in the 2024 voter pool."
So I thought I would share that information beyond the folks in the class. A warning: a lot of data is coming your way, so be prepared to swim in the deep end of the pool.
First, a comparison of what 2020's voter registration pool was like (those registered and who could show up to vote) to the 2020 actual electorate (those who did showed up to cast a ballot).
Starting with the most fundamental dynamic at play in the voter pool versus electorate: a North Carolina voter's party registration.
Based on voter party registration, the pool of voters was slightly more registered Democratic, while a third were registered unaffiliated and 30 percent registered Republican. But among those North Carolina registered votes who showed up to cast a ballot, registered Democrats were at their registration pool percentage, while registered Republicans were a third of the voters casting ballots (3 points ahead of their voter pool percentage), while registered Unaffiliated voters dropped to 31 percent.
Meaning, the electorate was slightly more registered Republican and less unaffiliated.
This shift in the voter pool to the electorate is not unusual, due to the turnout rates that all three groups had in 2020, as evident in the next chart:
As is clear above, registered Republicans had a +6 point advantage over the state turnout rate, while the registered Unaffiliated voters were -6 point compared to the state. That turnout rate dynamic shifted the electorate from what we saw in the general registered voter pool.
In terms of voter race-ethnicity, North Carolina's voter pool was 63 percent White non-Hispanic, 20 percent Black, and 3 percent Hispanic/Latino (any race), with the remainder being any other race or unknown/unreported.
But in the group of 2020 voters, White voters had a +3 point advantage to their overall voter pool number, with a slight dip in Black and Hispanic voters, in comparison. Again, this is due to turnout rates that saw a White voter advantage compared to voters of color.
In dividing the state into 'regions,' we see a majority (55 percent) of voters residing in the suburbs: either in the urban suburbs (inside an urban county but outside the major city) or in the surrounding counties to that urban county. Central city voters made up a quarter of the voter pool, while rural voters were a little over 20 percent.
And while there were very subtle shifts into the electorate among the four regions, the further 'suburbanization' of the state's electorate boasted it to 57 percent of the votes cast.
Finally, the generational dynamic of North Carolina showed a significant shift from its registered voter pool to the electorate. While 37 percent of NC voters were under the age of 40 in 2020's general election, those same voters were only 31 percent of the voters casting ballots.
Again, it's all about turnout, especially in the dynamic of 'young' versus 'older' voters in 2020.
When there is a 13 point advantage among Boomer voters (age 56-75 years old in 2020) and a 14 point disadvantage among those 18-23 years old (Gen Z) in turnout rates among registered voters, there is a significant impact on the electorate.
Now flash forward four years to this year's election. As of September 1, 2024, North Carolina has 7.6 million registered voters. Since 2020, the number of registered Unaffiliated voters has only continued to grow, while the percentage of registered Democrats has decreased and the percentage of registered Republicans has remained stable.
The racial and ethnic composition of NC's registered voters has remained fairly constant, with 64 percent White non-Hispanics, 20 percent Black, and a slight increase in Hispanic/Latino from 3 to 4 percent.
Yet among the regions and generations, North Carolina's registered voter pool has seen some significant changes from 2020.
Among the regions, a plurality--31 percent--of registered voters are in the central cities, while the urban suburbs have dropped from 30 percent down to 23 percent. If you combine the suburbs (urban and surrounding counties), they still account for half of the voter pool. Less than 2 out of 10 of North Carolina voters are in rural counties.
And among the generations, currently 42 percent of voters are under the age of 44 years old--that is, Millennials and Generation Z.
Much of this is speculation; campaigns are working their ground game operations at this critical point in the campaign season, and getting turnout of their key voters is the number one focus for November 5.
But if these shifts in the registered voter pool carry over into the NC electorate--if more central city voters turnout, if Gen Z and Millennials start to punch up to their political weight, if Black voters meet or exceed their voter registration percentage, and what the battle between the party registrations is like in terms of turnout--the state's razor-edge victories of margins will yet again be in play for 2024.
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Dr. Michael Bitzer holds the Leonard Chair of Political Science and is the incoming director of the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service at Catawba College, where he is a professor of politics & history. He is on various social media platforms at some variation of @BowTiePolitics.
