Saturday, September 15, 2018

More Analysis of NC Mail-In Ballots as of 9-15-18 (Updated)

With another day of mail-in ballot data in from the NC State Board of Elections, a bit more of a trend line can be presented of the 12,541 requested mail ballots so far for this year's election. First, the comparison between 2014's and 2018's requests for mail ballots, by the days prior to Election Day:

While there's only two days showing in the above and below charts for requested mail ballots, these early numbers show both registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters ahead of their same day totals from the last mid-term election in 2014, while registered Republicans are below their same day 2014 totals in requested mail ballots.

The racial composition so far shows white voters ahead of their percentage (69) of overall registered voters, with black/African-American voters below their voter registration percentage (22).

Update: I decided to look at the requested mail ballots by party registrations within each generational cohort:

While younger voters (those under the age of 37) are only a quarter of the requested ballots so far, they are more likely to be registered Democrats and unaffiliated, with only 14 percent being registered Republicans. But among all cohorts, significant pluralities are registered Democrats, with only the Greatest/Silent generation seeing a third of their requests come from registered Republicans.

Only 21 mail ballots have been returned and accepted, considerably down from the same days prior to the Election in 2014 for the three major party registrations (Democratic, Republican, and unaffiliated):

And the differences in returned and accepted ballots by day to 2014:

Granted, the numbers of accepted ballots will likely be delayed due to Hurricane Florence, but the requested numbers seem to show a distinctive up-tick from four years ago. Another aspect of these voters who have requested mail ballots so far is, did they vote in 2014's mid-term election, and if so, what was their vote method (absentee by mail, absentee in person, on Election Day, and so forth)?

The data from these 12,000+ mail ballot requesting voters and their 2014 vote methods are:

Almost half, or 48 percent so far, of the voters asking for a mail ballot in 2018 didn't vote in 2014's mid-term election. One quarter of this year's mail ballot requests are from voters who cast mail ballots four years ago, and 27 percent are from voters who voted in person, either early (absentee) or on Election Day.

The party registration of these voters, and if and how they voted in 2014, are:

Of those who didn't vote in 2014 but have requested a 2018 mail ballot, 45 percent are registered Democrats, 34 percent registered unaffiliated, and 20 percent registered Republicans.

Of those who voted by mail in 2014 and have requested mail ballots this year:

  • 43% registered Democrat
  • 32% registered Republican
  • 25% registered unaffiliated

Of those who voted absentee onestop (in person early) in 2014 and have requested mail ballots this year:

  • 50% registered Democrat
  • 27% registered unaffiliated
  • 22% registered Republican
And those who voted on Election Day in 2014 and have requested mail ballots this year:
  • 47% registered Democrat
  • 30% registered unaffiliated
  • 23% registered Republican 

I'll likely update these statistics on Wednesday and Saturday of next week, especially with the amount of issues the hurricane is causing in the state. Hope everyone is safe out there.