Friday, October 21, 2016

NC In-Person Early Voting Shows Strong Numbers on First Day

With North Carolina officially into its two early voting methods, the numbers of registered voters casting ballots has grown significantly, with a total of 341,662 requests from both mail-in and in-person balloting, and 220,954 of those ballots returned and accepted for the November 8th general election by either mail-in or in-person voting.

First, the absentee by in-person voting has kicked off, which has historically been the bulk of early ballots in North Carolina. On the first day of in-person early voting in 2012, 167,497 cast ballots that were accepted. On the first day of this year, the overall total numbers of ballots cast and accepted was down, to 162,382:

The party registration for this year's first day of in-person early voting was 53 percent registered Democrat, 24 percent registered Republican, 23 percent registered unaffiliated, and less than one percent registered Libertarian. The comparison to the first day in 2012 is shown in the below graph:

The total number of in-person early ballots is down 3 percent from the same day in 2012, while those from registered Democrats are down 11 percent, from registered Republicans down 7 percent, but up among registered unaffiliated voters by 28 percent.

It is important to note that this year's numbers will not be a pure apples-to-apples comparisons due to changes in county hours and locations from 2012.

In terms of looking at in-person early voting by the voter's race, for both the total numbers and by party registration:

Among the voters who have cast in-person early ballots, the following shows their 2012 voting method and if they were registered in 2012 or after:

In looking at gender by party registration of the early in-person ballots:

Among the early in-person ballots, 55 percent are from female voters, with 60 percent female among registered Democrats, 51 percent among registered Republicans, and 48 percent among registered unaffiliated voters.

Among the generations for these early in-person voters and their party registration:

More North Carolinian registered voters indicate that they were born out of state versus being native to the state, and the trend is reflected in the early in-person ballots so far as well:

Finally, urban county voters are a majority of the in-person early ballots cast, with registered Democrats dominating that region of the state:

Among absentee mail-in ballots, we are nearing the end of the 6th week of voting, with nearly 180,000 ballots requested and over 58,000 ballots returned and accepted for votes.

Among the requested ballots, 40 percent are registered Republicans, 31 percent registered Democrats, 28 percent registered unaffiliated, and less than one percent are registered Libertarians.

In comparison to four years ago on the same day, this year's mail-in ballots are at 80 percent of the total, with significant differences among party registration:

The racial composition of those NC voters requesting mail-in ballots is predominately white:

Among the returned and accepted mail-in ballots so far:

While registered Republicans are running ahead in accepted ballots, they are significantly behind their 2012 same-day numbers (59 percent of where they were on the same day in 2012), while registered Democrats (at 101 percent) and registered unaffiliated voters (at 108 percent) are ahead of their same-day 2012 numbers.

Finally, among the voters who have requested mail-in ballots for this year's election, I looked at the voting behavior from 2012 (whether they voted or not) and if they did, what their voting method was: