Now All GOP Eyes Turn South to the Palmetto State's Politics

By Michael Bitzer

Now that the first two contests of the GOP presidential primary season are in the books, all eyes now turn to February 24's primary in South Carolina, the "first in the South" contest for the Republicans (Democrats will have their official first primary contest in the nation in South Carolina on February 3). 

Before diving into Palmetto politics, a bit of a review of some interesting trends in both Iowa's and New Hampshire's polls (entrance for the Hawkeye State, exit for the Granite State).

Previewing 2024's Election Year? Buckle-Up

By Michael Bitzer

Well, it's the start of the new year and new semester, and with the 2024 Election year now officially upon us, I (along with my fellow contributors) will share some thoughts as to what we'll be watching for over the coming months. 

For me, it's a single phrase: buckle-up, cause it's gonna be a bumpy year.

A Variety of Media Appearances to Start 2024

Several of the blog contributors have been busy with media appearances as the new year starts and the official kick-off of Election 2024 begins. 

You can find the following contributors at these recent appearances:

Dr. Susan Roberts was on WFAE's Charlotte Talks with Mike Collins with a 2024 political preview: https://www.wfae.org/show/charlotte-talks-with-mike-collins/2023-12-19/a-2024-political-preview

Drs. Chris Cooper and Michael Bitzer were on Spectrum News 1's Capital Tonight (starting at 10:50): https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/coastal/capital-tonight/2024/01/03/border-policy-impact-on-elections#

Drs. Roberts and Bitzer were on WUNC's Due South's inaugural "Purple Ballot" series episode: https://www.wunc.org/show/due-south/2024-01-02/due-south-2024-election-preview

Dr. Bitzer was on WCNC's Flashpoint along with Winthrop University's Dr. Scott Huffmon (starting at 10:05): https://www.wcnc.com/video/news/live_stream/flashpoint/275-872a9285-37d5-4ff3-8e03-cfcc1f950d8f

Brief NC Candidate Filing Update (updated regularly)

 by Christopher Cooper

Candidate filing in North Carolina began Monday, December 4 at noon and continues until Friday, December 15 at noon. This filing season is important--arguably more important in many cases than the General Election-- so I'm going to try to get in the habit of posting brief daily regular updates throughout this period for those who want to keep track of how the candidate fields are shaping up. These updates will be quick and the prose will be....unadorned.

Here's the update through December 13 (posted on December 14). 

Candidate Filing and the Illusion of Choice

by Christopher Cooper

If you want to understand how you will be governed in 2025, the time to pay attention is now.

Candidate filing for the 2024 election in North Carolina kicks off today (Monday, December 4). From now until the end of filing on Friday, December 15th at noon, North Carolinians who want to run for elected office can fill out some forms, pay one percent of the salary for that office, and become a candidate. Of course, few of them do this quietly--there's usually an announcement, a web site, a social media blast, and a press release that accompanies the official application.

Although it might be tempting to discount these announcements as "just politics," this is the time where the lion's share of outcomes for the 2024 election are being determined.

Barometer or Bellwether? Analyzing Ohio's Proposition 1

By Susan Roberts

Just days ago, the citizens of Ohio passed Issue 1, the latest in a string of state constitutional protections for access to reproductive rights and access to abortion. By a margin of 56.6 to 43.4 percent, Ohioans amended their state constitution to support reproductive freedom with access to abortion being only one item in language considered having “reasonable limits.” The victory was even sweeter for pro-choice Ohioans since only three months earlier, they defeated an effort by the Republican state legislature to raise the threshold to amend from a simple majority to a sixty-percent vote margin.  Remarkably, this vote was virtually identical to the vote on Issue 1's outcome, with 56.5 to 43.5 voting not to raise the threshold.

About that New York Times/Siena Poll

 by Christopher Cooper

Two days before the 2023 elections that will decide  the next Governors of Mississippi and Kentucky, control of the Virginia and New Jersey legislatures, and the leaders of municipal governments in North Carolina and other states, the political world was gnashing teeth over....a poll about the 2024 Presidential election.

The New York Times/Siena poll of six battleground states (excluding North Carolina, but I digress...) showed Donald Trump with a commanding lead over Joe Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and within the margin of error in Wisconsin. It also showed Trump garnering support from almost a quarter of African American voters. After reading the results, it seemed as if every Democrat in America commenced to panicking and trashing the New York Times while everyone with a closet full of MAGA hats sang the praises of the New York Times and expressed faith in public opinion polls. Strange times we're living in.

My takeaway: this poll reinforces that either Joe Biden or Donald Trump could win the 2024 Presidential election. That's it. Nothing more, and nothing less. Trump is not suddenly a favorite in 5 battleground states and he's certainly not up by 11 percentage points in Nevada. Nor is Biden favored in those states. 

So, why am I pouring a large bucket of cold water on the poll aftermath?

Quick Links About North Carolina Redistricting

by Christopher Cooper

As readers of this blog are no doubt aware, new maps dropped for North Carolina's congressional, state house and state senate districts last week. All four of us have been busy trying to understand what these maps might mean for representation in the Old North State. Here are a few quick links, graphs and tables that we hope will help others trying to do the same.

A (Too Early) Look at No Labels Registrants in North Carolina

By Christopher Cooper

On Sunday, August 13, the North Carolina State Board of Elections voted 4-1 to recognize "No Labels" as an official political party in North Carolina. No Labels joined the Democratic, Republican, Green, and Libertarian Parties as the state's only registered parties, although the largest group of registrants in the state remains Unaffiliated. 

Last Saturday, the North Carolina voter registration file was updated with the first wave (really more like a ripple) of No Labels registrants. So, who are these early adopters? 

Why Is NC's Governor Considered "Weak"?

For those who watch and study North Carolina politics closely, especially the different branches of state government, most acknowledge that the Old North State's chief executive--the governor--is considered to be one of the 'weakest' governors in the nation. And on WFAE's Charlotte Talks for Tuesday, June 18, ONSP contributor and Western Carolina University political science professor Dr. Christopher Cooper will join a discussion about the Tar Heel governor and its impact on state government and politics.

As some background, looking at each of the 50 governor's formal institutional powers (such as the number of elected or gubernatorial appointed executive officers; tenure length and re-election opportunity; appointments within six major areas of state bureaucracy; budgetary power; veto power; and gubernatorial party control of the legislature) and creating an overall index for each state, one can see a wide spectrum of formal power held by state chief executives across the country--and notice the very 'light-shaded' state of North Carolina. 

Map created based on data from Table 8-4 of Politics in the American States and updated for May 2023 legislative control
by Michael Bitzer

In fact, North Carolina's governor is currently ranked 50th out of the fifty states in institutional power, as Cooper notes in this blog post.