Sunday, September 18, 2016

Did NC 2016 Mail-In Ballot Voters Participated in 2012?

As we await the updated numbers from the NC State Board of Elections and the 100 counties about the mail-in absentee ballots requested and received (on Tuesday, due to mail from the weekend and processing the bulk on Monday), some further information on the voters who have requested NC mail-in ballots.

I was curious what this year's voters, who have requested mail-in ballots in 2016, did in 2012: did they vote four years ago, and if they voted, how?

Of the 50,000 plus ballots requested through 9-17-16, I matched the history of these voters of when they registered (pre- or post-2012) and if they voted in 2012, how they voted.

Then, breaking these numbers into percentages, we find the 50,000 voter pool who have requested mail-in ballots with their 2012 activity to be the following:

Finally, I looked at the group who registered after 2012 (28% of the 50K plus mail-in ballot requests as of 9-17) and broke that group by their current party registration:

Of course, we only have a week of mail-in ballot requests and even more importantly, of accepted ballots, so far, but it seems like there is an interest in 'banking one's vote' earlier this year, considering that less than 1/3 of the voters requesting mail-in ballots this year did the same last year. Another such analysis of the second week of mail-in balloting will be useful to see if these trends hold.