Thursday, August 25, 2016

How Many "Party Switchers" Are There in North Carolina for the 2016 Election?

Based on some entries and Twitter interactions, I've been asked "how many North Carolina registered voters have switched their party registration since the 2012 general election?"

In analyzing the active and inactive North Carolina registered voters as of July 30, 2016 through two data sets from the NC State Board of Elections, I was able to identify those voters who cast ballots in the 2012 general election and are still registered in the state: a total of a little over 4 million voters out of 6.6 million registered voters. The data for this analysis is:


Voted in 2012's General Election as:
Democrat Unaffiliated Republican Libertarian
2016 Party Registration Democrat  1,727,420  17,411  7,361  412
Unaffiliated  51,133  882,859  30,882  1,023
Republican  29,894  13,924  1,306,740  416
Libertarian  512  740  898  8,298
 1,808,959  914,934  1,345,881  10,149

Out of those 4 million voters, 1.8 million voters were registered Democratic voters and cast ballots in 2012's general election. Now, as of July 30, 2016, the breakdown of party registration among those 2012 Democrats is:



Out of the 4 million voters, 1.3 million voters were registered Republican voters who cast ballots in 2012's general election. Now, as of July 30, the party registration breakdown among those 2012 Republicans is:



Finally, nearly 915,000 voters out of the 4 million were registered unaffiliated voters who cast ballots in 2012's general election, and now, as of July 30, their party registration breakdown is:


So, out of the 4 million 7-30-16 active and inactive NC registered voters who cast ballots in 2012's general election, 152,755 voters have switched their party registrations from four years ago to now, equaling 4 percent of the total 4 million.  The most "loyal" registered party group were Republicans, followed by unaffiliated, and then registered Democrats--but all of the groups saw at least 95 percent of their 2012 voters stay with their 2012 party affiliation.