Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Day 5 of Early Voting in North Carolina

Yesterday I noted that all three registered party groups--Democrats, Republicans, and Unaffiliated--saw their daily numbers exceed the first four days of 2008 in early voting here in North Carolina.  That trend, however, didn't last into the fifth day.

In terms of the total numbers, the fifth day of early voting continued the over-performance of votes cast in comparison to the same day in 2008.

Cumulative Totals of In-Person Absentee Ballots Cast in North Carolina
Comparison of 2008 to 2012

We now have over 500,000 votes banked, with two weeks to go before Election Day here in North Carolina.

For both registered Republicans and Unaffiliated voters, they continued to march past their respective 2008 numbers on the first Monday of early voting in the Tar Heel state.  But for registered Democrats casting ballots, they came up about 5,000 short of the number they saw in 2008's early voting.

Daily 2012 Compared to 2008 In-Person Absentee Ballots 
Cast in North Carolina by Registered Democrats

Daily 2012 Compared to 2008 In-Person Absentee Ballots
Cast in North Carolina by Registered Republicans

Daily 2012 Compared to 2008 In-Person Absentee Ballots
Cast in North Carolina by Registered Unaffiliated Voters


In terms of race, the ballots cast by white voters continued to be at 61% while black voters were at 35% and all other races were at 5% of the votes cast.  With the question of whether black voters will be either 22% of the total electorate (which they were in 2008) or a lower percentage, it appears that black voters are showing up at numbers that could influence the total pool of votes cast.

2012 Compared to 2008 In-Person Absentee Ballots Cast in North Carolina
by White and Black/African-American Voters 

One other interesting aspect of the early voter pool is the breakdown among women and men.  We are hearing about the increasing gender gap that is prevalent in this year's presidential election, but in terms of early voting, women are soundly showing up over men.  And there is a marked partisan slant to women voters.

Female vs. Male NC Early Voters (In-Person Absentee)


Among registered female voters casting early ballots, 60% of them are registered Democrats, while among registered male voters, it is a 49-30% split between Democrats and Republicans.

Female NC Early Voters by Party Registration (In-Person Absentee)


Male NC Early Voters by Party Registration (In-Person Absentee)

I'll try to post more in terms of age demographics of early voters later today.