Friday, October 7, 2016

Nearing the End of the 4th Week of NC Absentee Mail-in Ballots

With the end of North Carolina's fourth week of accepting absentee mail-in ballots nearing, over 116,000 mail-in ballots have been requested, with 40 percent coming from registered Republicans, 32 percent from registered Democrats, and 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters. This advantage for registered Republicans has been the historic norm in absentee (early) mail-in balloting, while registered Democrats will take the advantage in absentee (early) in-person ballot that starts later in the month of October.

While registered GOP voters have the advantage in requesting mail-in ballots, registered Democrats still claim the advantage in returned and accepted ballots, with 39 percent of the total ballots returned and accepted, while registered Republicans have 36 percent of the over 21,000 accepted ballots, and 25 percent from registered unaffiliated voters.

In comparison to 2012's same-day cumulative totals for returned and accepted ballots, the total amount (21,000) is behind where 2012's total same-day number was; this year's returned and accepted mail-in ballots so far is 84 percent of where things stood four years ago.

However, registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters are continuing to outpace their numbers from 2012. 

Registered Democrats returning their ballots and having them accepted are currently at 115 percent of where they were in 2012 on the same day, with unaffiliated voters at 112 percent of their same day 2012 numbers; registered Republicans are behind on their same day totals, at 57 percent of where they were in 2012. 

Among the outstanding ballots, registered Republicans have the advantage here. 

Two other pieces of data analysis of these mail-in ballots: one is a comparison of the ballots 'sent out' to see the volume of where things stood in 2012 and how they match up, based on party registration, to this year's ballot requests. Again, the indications is that requested ballots for registered Republicans is running behind where they were in 2012, while registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters are running ahead of their requested ballots from four years ago. 

The second piece of analysis relates to how 2016 voters who are requesting mail-in ballots were involved in the 2012 general election: whether they were registered, and if they were, what method did they vote by in 2012. So far, it is interesting that only a third of this year's mail-in voters used the same method four years ago.